New Zealand in recession

NZ unemployment continues to rise as employment falls.
Kieran Davies

Coolabah Capital

The New Zealand labour market indicates that the economy is in recession, with unemployment rising further as employment falls.  

GDP has fallen almost continuously for over a year now, while the unemployment rate has risen from a low of 3.2% in late 2021/early 2022 to 4.3% in Q1, with employment falling by 0.3% in the quarter (noting the volatility of the quarterly numbers, CCI estimates that trend employment stalled in Q1). 

Labour costs continued to grow more slowly, up by less than 3¾% in annualised terms in Q1, which is down from the COVID-era peak of 4½%, but above the pre-pandemic average of about 2½%. 

The numbers are a little worse than the RBNZ had forecast in February, where it had expected an unemployment rate of 4.2% in Q1 and a 0.1% gain in employment. 

The RBNZ is forecasting that it will start cutting rates in Q2 next year, but the weakness of the economy still suggests it could start easing policy later this year.    

New Zealand’s labour market continues to weaken
New Zealand’s labour market continues to weaken





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Kieran Davies
Chief Macro Strategist
Coolabah Capital

Based in Sydney, Kieran Davies is Chief Macro Strategist at Coolabah Capital Investments, an asset manager with 40 executives and over $8 billion in fixed-income strategies. Kieran is responsible for macroeconomic research and investment strategy,...

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