Macro
Last month, there was probably no one more surprised than Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison – or “ScoMo” – to which he is commonly referred. ScoMo had just won a decisive victory in Australia’s general election against an opponent that was the short-odds favourite in the betting markets. The upset... Show More
Equities
A “red herring” is known as something that distracts from a more important area of focus. There are numerous different attributions to the etymology of this saying. From 17thcentury fox hunters deceiving dogs with herring; to 19thcentury bandits using herring to throw bloodhounds off their scent; to early New England... Show More
Macro
On 18 May, Australian citizens over the age of 18 will be required to vote to elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. As always, there is a chance of a change in government. Indeed, this time around, that chance appears meaningful. Whether one consults Newspoll surveys or the... Show More
Equities
As many millennials are now reaching the age at which they start to take over the grocery shopping responsibilities, it is not surprising to observe significant growth in demand for online shopping. On the one hand, this is nothing new: we have seen the ongoing shift to online shopping across... Show More
Macro
Obviously in the near term, week-to-week, month-to-month it’s impossible to predict currencies, but over any medium-term period – you can at least, in our view, make some informed judgments around what the shape of the probability distribution of possible outcomes looks like. Show More
Global economic growth is slowing due to a slowdown in China driven by President Trump’s trade war. This is the conventional wisdom accepted by most and questioned by few. Show More
The following is an extract from a note that was recently sent to investors in the Montaka Global Fund. At Montaka, we believe there are five major forces that will significantly shape investment returns over the coming decades. One of these relates to the “New World Order” that is currently... Show More
Conventional wisdom typically holds that actively trading positions in your portfolio destroys value. Whether it’s Warren Buffett recommending a “buy-and-hold” strategy, or your advisor recommending against active-trading to minimise brokerage and taxes, there are plenty of experts out there who contend that active trading is inadvisable. Show More
After several years of plain sailing, investors are now having to contend with global markets that are far more risky. These market conditions have been created by an almost perfect storm of global issues. While the issues are out of our control, there are important steps we can take when... Show More
As happens four times per year in global equity markets, publicly-listed companies recently reported their results for the third calendar quarter of 2018. This is not only an enormous undertaking for the disclosing businesses, it is also a busy time for equity analysts and fundamental investors who carefully dissect disclosures... Show More
Thanks all, great comments. My view is different and that the cost basis of the shares owned is not relevant (except for tax purposes). If the goal is to seek to profit-maximise from each moment looking forward, then whether you bought CBA shares at $10, $22 or $89, the profit-maximising course of action on each day looking forward should be the same under all scenarios (again, leaving tax aside). Hope I am making sense. All the best, -AM
Hi Asad, Robotic warehousing will significantly reduce the operating costs associated with delivering online groceries to customers. There is an enormous upfront investment cost, however, which will ultimately be borne by the current shareholders of the supermarkets.
Many thanks. We agree – we’re not particularly concerned by Europe’s exports to Turkey.
Many thanks, Jehangir. Very much appreciate the kind feedback. All the best, -AM