Volatility has returned with vigour over the past two months, with the ASX200 posting its third straight negative month in November. While we don't subscribe to the view that equity markets are heading into a deep bear market, macro events will determine market direction in coming weeks. With global growth... Show More

We have spoken about market abnormalities and the risk of fresh volatility for some time. Overall we think current weakness will prove to be another 'reality check' for a market that had run a little ahead of itself, rather than a precursor to something more serious. The increased volatility in... Show More

The ASX 200 Accumulation index returned a respectable 15.4% at the close of reporting season, and is poised to return a similar amount over the next 12 months if all goes to plan. Factset consensus forecasts anticipate another year of 7.2% earnings growth at a dividend yield of 4.6% which... Show More

In our reporting season preview, we noted that the spread in consensus forecasts was very narrow and the potential for beats and misses versus market expectations was lower than normal. It is this dynamic that foreshadowed many of the results across our coverage universe, where results were mostly in line... Show More

Investors are waiting for a circuit-breaker. Stretched valuations limit upside potential for a further re-rating of the market multiple (15.8x 12month forward PE, Industrials ex-Financials at 21.8x) and without clear earnings momentum in either direction the market is likely to remain rangebound. Show More

We currently expect the S&P/ASX 200 index to finish the year around the current level, but the outlook, particularly this late in a sustained business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable. Show More

The Australian market has been weighed down by elevated valuations and a lack of earnings momentum, so investors need to think more tactically. Our team of Research Analysts has identified three buying opportunities for nimble investors ahead of the all-important August reporting season. Show More

Economic growth overall is still supportive for equities, and we currently expect the ASX200 to edge higher to 6200 by year-end. The outlook however, particularly this late in a sustained global business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable to various risks, notably higher bond yields and geopolitical issues. Show More

Uncertainty in global markets is keeping investors on edge. While we think economic fundamentals remain sound, markets seem overly sensitive to even the slightest disruption to the status quo. Show More

Stock investors have enjoyed an extended bull market since March 2009. It was particularly enjoyable during 2017, when the ASX 200 Accumulation Index rose by 11.8% over the year. Such an impressive return is quite extraordinary for an aging bull market going on nine years in 2018. The music seemed... Show More

Our high conviction stocks are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe, supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. This month we add BHP Billiton back to the list, and remove Corporate Travel Management after a strong run following results. Show More

There was a lot to like about the February reporting season. By our estimates, over 30% of large caps beat the market's expectations, and unlike previous seasons, estimates held firm rather than falling away into results. Downgrades and significant misses were largely a non-event and overall management commentary reflected the... Show More

As we look ahead to reporting season, solid returns are still achievable in this market, but these returns should not come at the expense of investors taking on excessive levels of risk. We identify those stocks that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted return through 2018. Show More

The first half reporting season kicks off later this week, and according to the latest Thomson Reuters earnings estimates, EPS for the S&P/ASX200 is forecast to grow by 7.0% in FY18, down from the 11.3% in FY17. Show More

As we look ahead to 2018, markets remain in a sweet spot with global growth becoming entrenched and inflation still conspicuously absent. Interest rates are expected to rise gradually leaving businesses with a decent backdrop to work with and healthy growth puts the world in a better position to deal... Show More

Our high conviction stocks are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe, supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are typically our preferred our sector exposures. Show More

We thought it was prudent to remind investors about the unique conditions that are suppressing market volatility at abnormally low levels. This is a tricky market to interpret. Equity valuations are elevated, the economic environment is difficult to forecast (ultra-liquidity from central banks is ending), and to say geopolitical risks... Show More

Despite business surveys showing signs of improvement leading into August, meaningful cyclical tailwinds failed to materialise either through the results or outlook statements. Larger-than-usual volatility around reported results and the well-publicised large-cap misses Telstra, Suncorp, Ramsay Health Care and Woolworths) were the biggest surprises from reporting season. Show More

FY17 reporting season kicks off in earnest mid-August and according to the latest IBES consensus earnings estimates, EPS growth for the S&P/ASX200 is forecast at 13% in FY17, slightly down from 13.6% at the end of 1H17. Pleasingly this would still mark the end of the earnings recession after two... Show More

FY17 reporting season kicks off in earnest mid-August and according to the latest IBES consensus earnings estimates, EPS growth for the S&P/ASX200 is forecast at 13% in FY17, slightly down from 13.6% at the end of 1H17. Pleasingly this would still mark the end of the earnings recession after two... Show More