2019 has started on a bright note with the ASX 200 closing out the March quarter up 9.5%, the best quarter since September 2009. The sharp bounce has left many wondering where to from here. Our short-term view reflects a more cautious outlook as we think the upside has been priced... Show More

February results were broadly in-line despite ongoing systemic risks (housing slowdown, weak consumer, intensifying regulatory and political risk). Capital management upside was dominated by Resources, while Industrials appear to be holding back some dry powder given their challenging outlook, themes we recently discussed in this wire. Show More

February results were broadly in-line despite ongoing systemic risks such as a housing slowdown, weak consumer, intensifying regulatory and political risk. February's rally suggests investors had feared an escalation of these, and the lack of any significant "new issues" for Corporates certainly added fuel to the relief rally. Show More

A rather unpleasant end to 2018 saw the S&P/ASX 200 index down 9% over the final quarter. Tactically it has been a blessing in disguise for investors at the start of the year. Valuations have de-rated sharply on the back of a multitude of macro-economic scares and have left the... Show More

Volatility has returned with vigour over the past two months, with the ASX200 posting its third straight negative month in November. While we don't subscribe to the view that equity markets are heading into a deep bear market, macro events will determine market direction in coming weeks. With global growth... Show More

We have spoken about market abnormalities and the risk of fresh volatility for some time. Overall we think current weakness will prove to be another 'reality check' for a market that had run a little ahead of itself, rather than a precursor to something more serious. The increased volatility in... Show More

The ASX 200 Accumulation index returned a respectable 15.4% at the close of reporting season, and is poised to return a similar amount over the next 12 months if all goes to plan. Factset consensus forecasts anticipate another year of 7.2% earnings growth at a dividend yield of 4.6% which... Show More

In our reporting season preview, we noted that the spread in consensus forecasts was very narrow and the potential for beats and misses versus market expectations was lower than normal. It is this dynamic that foreshadowed many of the results across our coverage universe, where results were mostly in line... Show More

Investors are waiting for a circuit-breaker. Stretched valuations limit upside potential for a further re-rating of the market multiple (15.8x 12month forward PE, Industrials ex-Financials at 21.8x) and without clear earnings momentum in either direction the market is likely to remain rangebound. Show More

We currently expect the S&P/ASX 200 index to finish the year around the current level, but the outlook, particularly this late in a sustained business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable. Show More