Economic growth overall is still supportive for equities, and we currently expect the ASX200 to edge higher to 6200 by year-end. The outlook however, particularly this late in a sustained global business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable to various risks, notably higher bond yields and geopolitical issues. Show More

Uncertainty in global markets is keeping investors on edge. While we think economic fundamentals remain sound, markets seem overly sensitive to even the slightest disruption to the status quo. Show More

Stock investors have enjoyed an extended bull market since March 2009. It was particularly enjoyable during 2017, when the ASX 200 Accumulation Index rose by 11.8% over the year. Such an impressive return is quite extraordinary for an aging bull market going on nine years in 2018. The music seemed... Show More

Our high conviction stocks are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe, supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. This month we add BHP Billiton back to the list, and remove Corporate Travel Management after a strong run following results. Show More

There was a lot to like about the February reporting season. By our estimates, over 30% of large caps beat the market's expectations, and unlike previous seasons, estimates held firm rather than falling away into results. Downgrades and significant misses were largely a non-event and overall management commentary reflected the... Show More

As we look ahead to reporting season, solid returns are still achievable in this market, but these returns should not come at the expense of investors taking on excessive levels of risk. We identify those stocks that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted return through 2018. Show More

The first half reporting season kicks off later this week, and according to the latest Thomson Reuters earnings estimates, EPS for the S&P/ASX200 is forecast to grow by 7.0% in FY18, down from the 11.3% in FY17. Show More

As we look ahead to 2018, markets remain in a sweet spot with global growth becoming entrenched and inflation still conspicuously absent. Interest rates are expected to rise gradually leaving businesses with a decent backdrop to work with and healthy growth puts the world in a better position to deal... Show More

Our high conviction stocks are those that we think offer the highest risk-adjusted returns over a 12-month timeframe, supported by a higher-than-average level of confidence. They are typically our preferred our sector exposures. Show More

We thought it was prudent to remind investors about the unique conditions that are suppressing market volatility at abnormally low levels. This is a tricky market to interpret. Equity valuations are elevated, the economic environment is difficult to forecast (ultra-liquidity from central banks is ending), and to say geopolitical risks... Show More

Despite business surveys showing signs of improvement leading into August, meaningful cyclical tailwinds failed to materialise either through the results or outlook statements. Larger-than-usual volatility around reported results and the well-publicised large-cap misses Telstra, Suncorp, Ramsay Health Care and Woolworths) were the biggest surprises from reporting season. Show More

FY17 reporting season kicks off in earnest mid-August and according to the latest IBES consensus earnings estimates, EPS growth for the S&P/ASX200 is forecast at 13% in FY17, slightly down from 13.6% at the end of 1H17. Pleasingly this would still mark the end of the earnings recession after two... Show More

FY17 reporting season kicks off in earnest mid-August and according to the latest IBES consensus earnings estimates, EPS growth for the S&P/ASX200 is forecast at 13% in FY17, slightly down from 13.6% at the end of 1H17. Pleasingly this would still mark the end of the earnings recession after two... Show More