Callum Thomas

Callum is Head of Research at Topdown Charts. Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global Asset Allocation and Economics.


Chart Of The Week: Eurozone Credit Risk

Callum Thomas

This week it's a look at credit risk pricing in the Eurozone. This is a chart I've been using a lot in recent months, of course as of the last week it's looking a bit more interesting now! The reason why I've highlighted this chart in the past is that... Show More

eurozone sovereign risk credit spreads credit risk

Chart Of The Week: US PE10 Valuation Ex-GFC

Callum Thomas

This week it's the PE10 and the impact of the financial crisis. Specifically what we're looking at is how the PE10 or CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings) ratio would look like if you excluded the impact of the crash in earnings during the financial crisis. The bottom line is... Show More

financial crisis s&p500 valuations cape us stockmarket PE10

Chart Of The Week: EM Sovereign CDS

Callum Thomas

This week it's Emerging Markets sovereign CDS (Credit Default Swaps). The reason why I think this chart is really worth paying attention to is that after reaching a record low in mid-January, there has been a swift reassessment of risk in Emerging Markets. Typically when EM sovereign CDS turns up... Show More

Chart Of The Week: Loan Officers Give a Green Light for Stocks

Callum Thomas

This week it's the Fed's bank loan officer survey and the S&P500. The US Federal Reserves's loan officer survey provides insight into bank lending standards, and can give an important cross check against the markets. So much so, that you could easily call this chart the bear market warning indicator.... Show More

equities banks s&p500 lending standards credit conditions

8 Free Macro and Market Data Sources

Callum Thomas

I thought I would share some of my favourite free data sources on the internet, as I often get questions on where to find such and such or how to calculate this and that. In truth, for the overwhelming majority of my data I use Thomson Reuters Datastream (which is... Show More

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Chart Of The Week: US Dollar Index

Callum Thomas

This week it's the US Dollar Index. Unless you've been living under a rock (or maybe that saying should be updated - unless you've been living out of range of wifi), you will have noticed 2 key things about the US dollar index: 1. The US dollar bull market seemed... Show More

us dollar commodities crude oil risks us dollar index DXY

Chart Of The Week: REITs, GICS Changes, and Tech

Callum Thomas

This week it's a chart of US REIT ETF Assets Under Management, but basically as a prompt to talk about some previous and upcoming changes to the ubiquitous GICS system. The previous change was implemented in September 2016 and saw the new Real Estate sector split out from financials. Sure... Show More

equities technology reits telecoms sectors GICS sector rotation

Chart Of The Week: Commodity Valuations

Callum Thomas

This week it's Commodities, specifically an aggregate view of commodities and a look at valuations. Commodities as an asset class rose from relative obscurity to become a popular addition to portfolios by the more innovative asset allocators in the last 10-15 years. Although the "commodities supercycle" perhaps overstated some of... Show More

commodities valuation asset allocation

Chart Of The Week: Stay or Go? US Wage Growth is on the Rise...

Callum Thomas

This week it's wage inflation, but with a particular twist. Utilizing the great indicators from the innovative economics team at the Atlanta Fed, I have built a new indicator which I call the "Stay or Go Indicator". It is the difference between the annual wage growth figures for 'Job Switchers'... Show More

economy fed inflation monetary policy wage growth wage inflation

Chart Of The Week: Gold vs Real Yields

Callum Thomas

This week it's gold and real yields. A really important thing happened with interest rates in November last year which should be front of mind for investors thinking about gold. It is a reasonably well established understanding that gold prices trade inversely to real yields, and I'll explain why shortly.... Show More

Chart Of The Week: US Crude Oil Flows

Callum Thomas

This week it's US crude oil flows. Specifically, what we've got here is an interesting juxtaposition of crude oil imports and crude oil production for America. The chart is interesting due to the perspective it provides on US oil supplies: for much of recorded history the US got the majority... Show More

oil commodities crude oil energy sector MLP

Chart Of The Week: Equity Risk Premiums

Callum Thomas

This week the "Chart of the Week" shows the equity risk premium across a couple of key developed economy stockmarkets. The equity risk premium provides a unique perspective on valuation, which brings in not just what's going on with absolute valuations, but also reflects the opportunity cost or trade-off vs... Show More

equities asset allocation erp UK equities Developed Markets .

Chart Of The Week: Energy Stocks

Callum Thomas

This week the "Chart of the Week" looks at the energy sector of the S&P500 and specifically how it fits in in terms of market capitalization weight and share of total earnings across the index. Simply put, energy stocks have fallen to the lowest market cap weighting since late 2003... Show More

energy s&p500 crude oil energy sector energy stocks

Chart Of The Week: China Property Outlook

Callum Thomas

This week the "Chart of the Week" is focused on the outlook for China's property market. The Chinese property market is perhaps one of the most important markets in the world, if not the most. What happens to this market has direct flow-on effects to global commodity prices, emerging markets... Show More

commodities China china property Chinese property

Global Equities: The Top 10 PE10

Callum Thomas

Here's an updated scan across countries and regions to find the top (and bottom) PE10, and follows on from a previous version I shared back in August last year. Briefly on methodology, the PE10 is a stock market valuation metric which compares the stock index to the average earnings of... Show More

valuations global equities investment strategy

The top 10 Charts for 2018

Callum Thomas

I spent a lot of time in the 2017 End of Year Special Edition looking back across the year, covering some of my best charts and calls (and some of the worst!). But this article provides a look at the most important part of that report. Show More

A quick-take on Passive QT

Callum Thomas

As expected (by me and pretty much everyone else) the Fed held interest rates unchanged and announced that it would commence its balance sheet normalization plan in October. The balance sheet normalization plan involves gradually ceasing reinvestment of principal from maturing bonds, and will result in a passive/automatic run-down... Show More

Canada hikes again - what does it mean for the "CANZ economies"?

Callum Thomas

The Bank of Canada hiked interest rates another 25bps to 1.00% today, surprising most. As noted last time (following the July interest rate hike) Canada's housing market is running hot, and has all the hallmarks of a property price bubble. Show More

China July PMI bad and good

Callum Thomas

The official manufacturing PMI for China came in at 51.4 in July (51.5 expected, 51.7 previous), and the non-manufacturing PMI at 54.5 (54.9 previous). So at a headline level and at first glance the numbers were down and dissapointed against expectations. The 3-month moving average of the two combined was... Show More

commodities China pmi china pmi

Stockmarket Euphoriameter rises to a new post-crisis high

Callum Thomas

The Euphoriameter rose again in July, with the combined sentiment reading for the S&P500 lifted by higher forward PE ratios, a falling VIX, and rising levels of bullish sentiment in the surveys. The chart will probably trigger memories or comparisons to the 1990's because aside from the surge coming out... Show More

equities sentiment investor sentiment s&p500 US valuations

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On The Base Metal Boost -

Hi James, Yes exactly. It's the net change in loan interest rate spreads to bank funding costs... essentially whether or not banks are factoring in more credit risk into the interest rates they charge their customers

On SLOOS is saying something about US High Yield Credit -