Cameron Kusher

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for February 2015 earlier today. The results suggested to me that perhaps; after many warnings, the exuberance from the investor segment of the market is starting to slow. Keep in mind that investor borrowing remains at near record highs however,... Show More

Cameron Kusher

Although the number of dwelling approvals fell by -3.2% in February 2015, the 18,768 approvals over the month was the second highest monthly number on record. there is clearly a new approvals boom taking place but it is not without its potential risks, read more here: http://blog.corelogic.com.au/2015/04/dwelling-approvals-fall-to-the-second-highest-month-on-record-in-february/ Show More

Cameron Kusher

Last week was a bumper week for auctions across Australia with a preliminary 3,476 auctions, of which CoreLogic RP Data has captured 2,557 results so far. The national auction clearance rate was 77.5% with Sydney (84.6%) and Melbourne (78.5%) recording higher clearance rates. It is now the 8th consecutive week... Show More

Cameron Kusher

The ABS released its demographic statistics for the Sep-14 quarter. The increase in population over the past year was actually the lowest increase in national population over a year since the 12 months to December 2011. With population growth now showing a consistent slowdown since the end of 2012 and... Show More

Cameron Kusher

The Reserve Bank (RBA) released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR) earlier today. The document provides a guide as to the RBA’s thoughts on the overall economy and potential risks. As you’d expect, the residential housing market features heavily in their assessment of financial stability and I will delve into... Show More

Cameron Kusher

Although overall housing finance commitments fell by -0.6% in January, demand for mortgages remains strong. Most interesting, was the proportion of total lending which went to investors, it hit a record high in January as this segment of the market continues to surge. http://blog.corelogic.com.au/2015/03/housing-finance-eases-january-proportion-lending-investors-hits-time-high/ Show More

I get the feeling it is more than just jawboning. As you say its not just about this cycle but also future cycles. My concern is the sort of returns available from residential property are still better than most other asset classes will these tools really change anything? Banks still need to lend and for investors would a higher cost be enough of a deterrent?

On Today APRA released data for the September Quarter on the ADIs exposure to residential property -

As you say, it is one week of data so I don't want to get too carried away. I think the most likely reason is that vendors are getting too carried away with their expectations. Our data shows the rate of growth is slowing across both cities and vendors often take some time to adjust to the changing conditions. We have also seen a reasonably strong increase in property listings over recent while transactions seem to be softening so maybe a little less demand but more supply is starting to impact the market too. A few more weeks and we should have an idea of exactly what is going on (should the trend continue).

On Earlier today RP Data released its final auction clearance rate result for last week -