There are many signs that the Australian economy is strengthening. Exports of goods and services are rising strongly. Employment growth has been unusually strong. Business investment spending is starting to lift. Despite these positive signs concern remains about the potential fragility of household spending. Slow wages growth and a high... Show More

Higher wages growth in the United States seems to have caused the sell-off and subsequent sharp lift in volatility in global bond and share markets. Annual growth in in US average hourly earnings accelerated to 2.9% y-o-y moving in to territory that has presaged higher inflation in the past and... Show More

Each week we produce a topical piece on what economic factors are driving the markets in Australia. Our senior economist Stephen Roberts also produces a podcast where he discusses these topics in greater detail. You can listen to Steve's dulcet tones HERE. Show More

We are changing our view of Australia’s interest rate outlook essentially pushing out by six months the first RBA cash rate hike to August 2018 from February previously. The main reason why we are changing our rate forecasts is that it looks as if it may take longer for local... Show More

Last week we referred to international forecasting agencies and several central banks starting to consider that inflation may make a cyclical come-back over the next year or two. Yet in Australia most forecasters still see only slow and modest lift in local inflation at most over the next two years.... Show More

At the latest combined meeting of the IMF and World Bank the heads of the world’s major central banks seemed close to agreeing that the global economic recovery is entrenched and that inflation is unlikely to stay low for much longer. It was the clearest warning so far that the... Show More

Australian households are on average better off than they have ever been mostly because of the large increases in household wealth over recent years and a low unemployment rate closing in on what might be considered the “full-employment” unemployment rate. Yet in this age of comparative plenty the household sector... Show More