Hi Malcom and Wolfgang, This analysis was really meant to be focused on Developed Countries, but you are both correct in pointing out that the trajectories of China and India are going to be very important for the world. I am actually already in the process of looking at China's aging demographics and what factors could offset its effects. This should be ready over the next few weeks.
Hi Romayne, Yes, this is an idea that I addressed in Part Two of this series, which you can find a link to above. Declining working age populations introduces a challenge for governments on how to fund the increasing costs associated with an aging society. For example, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports that approximately 40% of Australian taxation revenues come from income taxes on individuals, so continuing to increase employment is a good way to fund the challenge without having to find new sources of revenue. Having said that, the link to GDP growth is probably a little more complicated. The simplest way that I like to think about this is that the more people there are in the economy, and in particular those who are working, the greater consumption can be. Where that growth comes from is another question, but given government debt levels are high globally, it’s a valid question to ask what this means for growth in the future and whether they can grow their way out of the problem.