Chris Weston

Chris joined IG as a sales trader in 2006, having worked previously at Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and Merrill Lynch, gaining exposure to both equity and fixed income trading. After accruing 15 years' experience in financial markets, Chris...

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European equities remain a buy on a short-, medium- and longer-term view

Chris Weston

European equities remain a buy on a short-, medium- and longer-term view. EUR/USD is a sell on rallies and US stocks should see new highs. I've put together a short video on the key take-away's from the ECB meeting and what it means for the capital markets - Show More

A short video on the history of policy mistakes from the SNB and the breath taking moves in the forex markets -...

Chris Weston

A short video on the history of policy mistakes from the SNB and the breath taking moves in the forex markets - Show More

Green light for ECB bond buying on 22 Jan and a look ahead to the Aussie session

Chris Weston

Green light for ECB bond buying on 22 Jan and a look ahead to the Aussie session. My quick rant Show More

These are strange times for global markets

Chris Weston

These are strange times for global markets. When you see a 425-point reversal on the Dow Jones and a 48-handle move in the S&P 500 on limited news, you know things are not quite right. You could easily explain the confusion with a quick assessment, as oil prices are sitting at... Show More

The big story again has been the falls in commodities with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (measuring 22 energy, agriculture and metal prices) hitting a new...

Chris Weston

The big story again has been the falls in commodities with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (measuring 22 energy, agriculture and metal prices) hitting a new 12-year low. Everyone trying to be a hero and buying oil. I am keen to wait for a base as the trend is still to strong... Show More

In this short video I look at what to expect from tonights ECB meeting

Chris Weston

In this short video I look at what to expect from tonights ECB meeting. Moves in the US bond market and how the 2-year is driving the USD. I also look at selling AUD/CAD for 2015 - &list=PLR1_yjp01nYRbEQlTzhnHhLJpyR3_J0nK Show More

Given the moves in oil I look at what is really behind the falls and look at the winners and losers in the recent plunge -...

Chris Weston

Given the moves in oil I look at what is really behind the falls and look at the winners and losers in the recent plunge - http://www.ig.com/au/market-update/2014/11/28/where-now-for-oil--21111 Show More

Follow the QE path and buy the CAC (and DAX)

Chris Weston

Follow the QE path and buy the CAC (and DAX). Over the years we have seen the FTSE and S&P exerting a strong correlation with the central banks balance sheet. With relative compelling valuations and a strong prospect of ECB enacting on QE I look at the set-up in the... Show More

There will certainly be a number of money managers outperforming benchmarks wishing that the year would end abruptly so they could lock in performance

Chris Weston

There will certainly be a number of money managers outperforming benchmarks wishing that the year would end abruptly so they could lock in performance. Still, there is much water left to flow under the bridge, so traders need to stay vigilant. There are five weeks to Christmas and six to... Show More

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EUR/USD is testing the year's low of 1.2358 this morning following on from Friday's ugly session for the single currency

Chris Weston

EUR/USD is testing the year's low of 1.2358 this morning following on from Friday's ugly session for the single currency. Mario Draghi spoke in Frankfurt on Friday and gave a fairly stark view that full blown government bond purchases are now clearly something they are exploring. The ECB president detailed... Show More

Thoughts from today's trading session With the S&P 500 trading to a new record high and continuing to eye the top of the multiyear channel resistance, there...

Chris Weston

Thoughts from today's trading session With the S&P 500 trading to a new record high and continuing to eye the top of the multiyear channel resistance, there seem to be a number of countertrend moves taking place. Around the Asia region today, equities are generally offered, with the Nikkei leading the... Show More

Crude prices have seen a reasonable bounce in the last few days with US light sweet crude increasing by just over $3.00, while Brent prices are back testing...

Chris Weston

Crude prices have seen a reasonable bounce in the last few days with US light sweet crude increasing by just over $3.00, while Brent prices are back testing $80.00 a barrel. The highly anticipated OPEC meeting on November 27 is clearly the big driver for prices in the short-term and there... Show More

Ten thoughts on what traders are talking about

Chris Weston

Ten thoughts on what traders are talking about. In this article I explore ten of the key thematics in markets and discuss the trade and technical levels to look out for - http://www.ig.com/au/trading-ideas/2014/11/12/10-thoughts-on-what-traders-are-talking-about-today-20733 Show More

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A look at the speculated Japanese snap election and specifically price action in AUD/JPY

Chris Weston

A look at the speculated Japanese snap election and specifically price action in AUD/JPY. With $21.7billion of Japanese investment flow in Aussie assets since October 2013, AUD/JPY should continue to benefit from low volatility and continued inflows - http://www.ig.com/au/forex-news/2014/11/11/japanese-uncertainty-presents-opportunities-20705 Show More

Spot gold enjoyed a monster rally on Friday with a high of $1178. The US payrolls report alone didn't cause such a strong reaction

Chris Weston

Spot gold enjoyed a monster rally on Friday with a high of $1178. The US payrolls report alone didn't cause such a strong reaction. If you look at the U6 unemployment rate - the broadest measure of unemployment - it fell 30 basis points to a six year low. There was... Show More

The EUR continues to be the gift that keeps on giving

Chris Weston

The EUR continues to be the gift that keeps on giving. Bouts of profit taking aside, a trip to the 200-month moving average at $1.2220 could be on the cards in the short-term. If all along, the Fed was hoping for the ECB and BoJ to fill the void left by... Show More

In this report I look at last nights ECB meet and where EURUSD could be headed

Chris Weston

In this report I look at last nights ECB meet and where EURUSD could be headed. AUD risks ahead of todays SoMP and what's expected in tonight's NFP - http://www.ig.com/au/trading-ideas/2014/11/06/eur-usd-and-aud-usd-trade-ideas-20617 Show More

With todays ECB in focus I look at EUR/USD shorts, while also feel AUDUSD shorts look good from a technical...

Chris Weston

With todays ECB in focus I look at EUR/USD shorts, while also feel AUDUSD shorts look good from a technical perspective https://www.ig.com/au/trading-ideas/2014/11/05/eur-awaits-european-central-bank-fallout-20579#lb_chart Show More

Falls in the crude complex have been one of the key macro issues which traders, economists, investors and strategists alike have had to adjust to. Along with...

Chris Weston

Falls in the crude complex have been one of the key macro issues which traders, economists, investors and strategists alike have had to adjust to. Along with the falls in US bond yields, the falls in energy prices have been the financial markets' story of the year, with central banks having... Show More

The fact that the EUR has broken the 3 October low of US$1.2501 is interesting, and stop losses have pushed the pair down to US$1.2437

Chris Weston

The fact that the EUR has broken the 3 October low of US$1.2501 is interesting, and stop losses have pushed the pair down to US$1.2437. The fact the EUR has also fallen relative to the JPY and GBP (despite growing concerns from Angela Merkel about the UK leaving the EU)... Show More

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I agree from a pure tech perspective with the short-term trend is clearly higher. The pair has failed to close above the 79 handle on a number of occasions. A close above 0.7900 and above the 24 March high of 0.7938 would be positive and signal 0.8200 could come into play. I still think the RBA cut, so would be closing out of longs prior to the announcement and prefer NZD shorts in the short-term as McDermotts comments make the prospect of a dovish RBNZ very high

On AUD/USD – technical buy signal generated -

They will keep buying in the private space so (after CBs/ABS) corp bonds look the next step. Think ECB wait to see how this all plays out and will see QE only when the French reform, which could be some way off. Still if we get a strong hint (not my base case) then markets should rejoice and it was always the Feds desire to end QE and hope other CBs take over There are other banks buying JGB's for benchmarking purposes but apart from that I cant see anyone else touching them!

On The fact that the EUR has broken the 3 October low of US$1.2501 is interesting, and stop losses have pushed the pair down to US$1.2437 -

50 DAY = 1295, 200 = 1298. Since 2000 we've seen 7 golden crosses, with 5 being profitable events, 2 negative...if you had bought on this development you would have done nicely, but that was because of the strong trend up to 2011. Since 2012 there have been two crosses and both have been poor indicators. Its all about the trend and with both MA's trading moderately higher, a cross is bullish, but it no way nearly as bullish as we have seen over the years

On A golden-cross for the yellow metal this week could see a $2000 gold price by late 2015. Based on data going back to 2000, a golden cross has led to a 50%... -

Against USD i see 110 coming into play, premised on increased eaing from the BOJ in April (to counter the rise in sales tax), while of course Fed paering will dirve US yields to 3.5-4% range and keep USD well bid. The JPY is hugely underowned right now and Japanese funds have been huge buyers of offshore assets..will this continue? I think it will but we will need to see Japanese inflation expectations increase and corps accross the board taking part in the pay increase we saw from Nomura last week

On Looking for a tactical buy on AUD this week -

We haven't seen the sort of upgrades yet from sell side to suggest that valuations are less of a concern. The S&P pulled back to 15.5x forward earnings on Oct 15 and is now back at 16.5x. The 5-yr average is 14.26x, but earnings growth on this quarterly is better. The falls in yields and gasoline at lowest levels since 2010 should also help

On US equity markets continue to power ahead -

true..plus you can throw in the bullish moves in the Dow Transport and Philli Semi conductor index

On Did we see a market capitulation -

sell JPY...of course that depends on what happens...worst case would be a debt write off, but this very low probability..all seems some way off, but they need to get debt down and that is a major task...while they do this they need to work out how to keep yields low..gold i'm sure will do well

On So the BOJ think they will exit its QQE (easing) program -

these figures are over the last decade

On Sell in May -

In Australia the ASX 200 has lost an average of 1.8% in May, with November behind at -0.7%. The financials are where we see the most pain, with an average loss of 3.6% (last two years the sector has been smashed though)..materials somewhat of a safe haven, with an average gain of +0.3%

On Sell in May -

CSI 300 - short term looks good, having rallied 9.4% since March 21. Momentum and trend indicators on daily looks constructive and the index held the 76.4% retrace of 2331 to 2077 move. I'd be a buyer of pullbacks if I could, but we cant trade this market...A50 cash is best option...this is the top 50 mainland companies, but futures trade in Singapore.. the correlation between the two is high

On The Chinese markets rallied with strength yesterday after an agreement was reached between the Chinese and Hong Kong regulators to allow greater freedom... -

Weak, really weak Alex. If you work off the 1st estimate of 2013/14, the intensions of $125b was well shy of the $137b many were looking for. Non mining intensions grew 1.5%, which is hardly enough to promote the 3.75% growth needed from the non-mining space to create total economic growth of just over 2% this year. This print could be telling and given I think inflation peaks mid-year and falls, the RBA will be concerned by this. A further decline in TOT and the market will start pricing in rate cuts.

On It's a big day for AUD traders with Q4 capex numbers due at 11:30 AEST -

sure, saw the cross the other week. Hard to back test what it traditionally means for gold as this is the 2nd DC on the weekly chart since 1997

On Time to think differently, time to buy gold -

Twitter..although i'm sure CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Sky Business will have the press conference (start 06:30 AEDT) live

On A traders playbook on the FOMC -

yah, they have all bases covered. I get their point, but agree with them that March is likely date. I think their spread of different probabilities highlights the market is clearly divided on when the Fed will taper.

On Morgan Stanley have March as its base case for tapering -

indeed, it was a big cut. I only have a headline, but I did see they expect a March taper, so I guess they are simply moving in line with that idea. Would be interesting to see its call on the USD, while also what supply side response would be given $1200 is seen a marginal cost of production

On BNP Paribas cut its 2014 gold forecast to $1095 -