I agree from a pure tech perspective with the short-term trend is clearly higher. The pair has failed to close above the 79 handle on a number of occasions. A close above 0.7900 and above the 24 March high of 0.7938 would be positive and signal 0.8200 could come into play. I still think the RBA cut, so would be closing out of longs prior to the announcement and prefer NZD shorts in the short-term as McDermotts comments make the prospect of a dovish RBNZ very high

On AUD/USD – technical buy signal generated - April 28, 2015 6:26am

They will keep buying in the private space so (after CBs/ABS) corp bonds look the next step. Think ECB wait to see how this all plays out and will see QE only when the French reform, which could be some way off. Still if we get a strong hint (not my base case) then markets should rejoice and it was always the Feds desire to end QE and hope other CBs take over There are other banks buying JGB's for benchmarking purposes but apart from that I cant see anyone else touching them!

On The fact that the EUR has broken the 3 October low of US$1.2501 is interesting, and stop losses have pushed the pair down to US$1.2437 - November 3, 2014 4:36am

50 DAY = 1295, 200 = 1298. Since 2000 we've seen 7 golden crosses, with 5 being profitable events, 2 negative...if you had bought on this development you would have done nicely, but that was because of the strong trend up to 2011. Since 2012 there have been two crosses and both have been poor indicators. Its all about the trend and with both MA's trading moderately higher, a cross is bullish, but it no way nearly as bullish as we have seen over the years

On A golden-cross for the yellow metal this week could see a $2000 gold price by late 2015. Based on data going back to 2000, a golden cross has led to a 50%... - March 17, 2014 9:11pm

Against USD i see 110 coming into play, premised on increased eaing from the BOJ in April (to counter the rise in sales tax), while of course Fed paering will dirve US yields to 3.5-4% range and keep USD well bid. The JPY is hugely underowned right now and Japanese funds have been huge buyers of offshore assets..will this continue? I think it will but we will need to see Japanese inflation expectations increase and corps accross the board taking part in the pay increase we saw from Nomura last week

On Looking for a tactical buy on AUD this week - December 1, 2013 8:57pm

thanks, I'd like it to be...off to Singapore over next few days so will try and put something in after that

On Ten thoughts on what traders are talking about - November 13, 2014 1:17am

thanks Scutty

On US equity markets continue to power ahead - October 29, 2014 6:22am

We haven't seen the sort of upgrades yet from sell side to suggest that valuations are less of a concern. The S&P pulled back to 15.5x forward earnings on Oct 15 and is now back at 16.5x. The 5-yr average is 14.26x, but earnings growth on this quarterly is better. The falls in yields and gasoline at lowest levels since 2010 should also help

On US equity markets continue to power ahead - October 29, 2014 5:27am

true..plus you can throw in the bullish moves in the Dow Transport and Philli Semi conductor index

On Did we see a market capitulation - October 16, 2014 1:32am

Thanks Livewire

On With the ECB meeting shaping up to be the key central bank meeting of the year, I look at the possible outcomes and what is likely to be announced - June 3, 2014 10:38pm

sell JPY...of course that depends on what happens...worst case would be a debt write off, but this very low probability..all seems some way off, but they need to get debt down and that is a major task...while they do this they need to work out how to keep yields low..gold i'm sure will do well

On So the BOJ think they will exit its QQE (easing) program - May 27, 2014 6:11am

these figures are over the last decade

On Sell in May - April 30, 2014 11:23pm

In Australia the ASX 200 has lost an average of 1.8% in May, with November behind at -0.7%. The financials are where we see the most pain, with an average loss of 3.6% (last two years the sector has been smashed though)..materials somewhat of a safe haven, with an average gain of +0.3%

On Sell in May - April 30, 2014 11:23pm

FOMC at 04:00

On Spot silver - On the daily chart there seems to be good buyers on dips and this can be seen with long wicks seen, highlighting good buying pressure - April 29, 2014 9:38pm

Cheers James

On The AUD has struggled to gain any real traction today, however locally traders have seemed more interested in whether the ASX 200 could make it eight days in a... - April 29, 2014 6:37am

CSI 300 - short term looks good, having rallied 9.4% since March 21. Momentum and trend indicators on daily looks constructive and the index held the 76.4% retrace of 2331 to 2077 move. I'd be a buyer of pullbacks if I could, but we cant trade this market...A50 cash is best option...this is the top 50 mainland companies, but futures trade in Singapore.. the correlation between the two is high

On The Chinese markets rallied with strength yesterday after an agreement was reached between the Chinese and Hong Kong regulators to allow greater freedom... - April 11, 2014 1:33am

free float of 112m shares as well

On Twitter (TWTR) - If you're looking for a stock to short then Twitter seems to be one that should be on trader's radar right now - April 6, 2014 9:23pm

haha...there's other than luck. I have no model I use, just sense check the lead indicators and practically do the opposite..this time I think is different. I actually see a payrolls of 220,000, which is in-line with where I think market positioning is (consensus is 200,000)..interesting to see hourly earnings as well as last month was strong +0.4%.

On It's all about US non-farm payrolls tonight at 23:30 and the market expects a lofty 200,000 jobs will be created - April 3, 2014 10:32pm

Too early to unwind political hedges yet...Russia still the main game and talk from Romania now of a push into Moldova...The start of a new empire?? 63% of Russian still feel they are a superpower..(although i'm sure that number would be higher in the US)

On A golden-cross for the yellow metal this week could see a $2000 gold price by late 2015. Based on data going back to 2000, a golden cross has led to a 50%... - March 18, 2014 1:30am

Bearish daily reversal at the trend highs a concern- with price making a higher high and closing below Fridays low

On A golden-cross for the yellow metal this week could see a $2000 gold price by late 2015. Based on data going back to 2000, a golden cross has led to a 50%... - March 17, 2014 9:22pm

I can send it over to you if you can upload it

On Looking at USD/JPY, USD/CNY, ASX 200 and copper on the radar today -... - March 17, 2014 12:38am

Cheers James.

On It's all about the ECB meeting today at 23:45 AEST, followed by Mario Draghi's press conference at 00:30 - March 5, 2014 8:46pm

yup

On We saw good weakness in the EUR overnight and traders will be keen to look out for German (regional) CPI tonight; however the more important metric will be M3... - February 27, 2014 5:09am

Weak, really weak Alex. If you work off the 1st estimate of 2013/14, the intensions of $125b was well shy of the $137b many were looking for. Non mining intensions grew 1.5%, which is hardly enough to promote the 3.75% growth needed from the non-mining space to create total economic growth of just over 2% this year. This print could be telling and given I think inflation peaks mid-year and falls, the RBA will be concerned by this. A further decline in TOT and the market will start pricing in rate cuts.

On It's a big day for AUD traders with Q4 capex numbers due at 11:30 AEST - February 27, 2014 5:07am

no probs.

On JP Morgan put out a note yesterday recommending clients buy Chinese equities - February 11, 2014 8:48pm

could halt the rally to a degree, but think the clever money feels she will echo comments of late from Plosser, Evans, Fisher (even Rosengren) and give impression for the Fed to deviate from current path is a high barrier.

On Spot gold continues to move higher and has broken above the top of the daily ichimoku cloud (at $1272) for the first time in months - February 11, 2014 4:51am

sure, saw the cross the other week. Hard to back test what it traditionally means for gold as this is the 2nd DC on the weekly chart since 1997

On Time to think differently, time to buy gold - January 21, 2014 11:20pm

I think gold stocks have also run its course and would be taking profits. Tough to get aggressive and short though

On Time to think differently, time to buy gold - January 21, 2014 8:59pm

didn't listen to the whole speech, just the headlines - the crux of it though was he will 'not flinch' from supporting cuts to bond buying if stocks fall

On Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher gave a speech last night where he was his usual hawkish self - January 14, 2014 10:36pm

these are November numbers though James..bit of a lagging indicator

On All eyes will be on November retail sales and building approvals at 11:30 - January 8, 2014 9:52pm

sure, the market will react, although reaction will come from a print +0.6% or above or 0.1% or below

On All eyes will be on November retail sales and building approvals at 11:30 - January 8, 2014 11:01pm

Core PCE could be interesting tonight, given strong number (say 1.3% or above) should push 10-yr to 3%..increasing positive real yields and pushing gold down..don't think PCE will get that high as never usually misses consensus by much, and trend is actually lower...but never say never I guess

On Gold prices reclaimed the USD $1200 price level Friday even as US GDP was revised higher. With sentiment weakened further by the 'surprise' QE taper last... - December 23, 2013 12:39am

Twitter..although i'm sure CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Sky Business will have the press conference (start 06:30 AEDT) live

On A traders playbook on the FOMC - December 17, 2013 11:05pm

wow, that really is well out of consensus...contrary to everything we have heard as well, even from the Fed doves.

On Westpac's Rennie says no taper in 2014 (from the AFR) - December 12, 2013 10:21pm

I feel employment will remain a major gauge on rates. However, I think you're right though, rates are on hold for now (and likely for sometime)

On Aussie business confidence isnt getting the sort of boost post-election many had hoped/expected - December 10, 2013 2:20am

its finding solid buyers on any moves to $1200. Tapering isn't tightening and all. Fed funds Dec 15 didn't even move - the fed will love that and gold bugs will like it

On Fridays US payrolls was enough to cause a few strategists to change their tapering call to December, however it was the reaction in the market to the strong... - December 8, 2013 10:41pm

Goldman tracking rate for G4 now 1.3% - Barclays 1.5%..Westpac still calling for taper to start in 2015, so makes sense that they are one of the more dovish/bearish houses

On Will tonight be the night gold plunges through USD $1200 - December 5, 2013 11:56pm

I am staggered by the example...Housing!! amazing. Its about timeframes

On Is technical analysis rubbish - December 4, 2013 4:28am

i'd be a buyer around $1190, but for me plenty of other things i'd be long even if it did dip there. Investors/traders are just finding it hard to understand exactly what te purpose of holding gold is right now. Maybe you could shed some much needed light?

On Gold could trade down to the lower band of the Bollinger band on the daily chart of $1210 if we get strong data out of the US tonight - December 3, 2013 11:08pm

The Kouk will be loving it!

On Love this article - December 2, 2013 10:51pm

cheers James. Not sure about fundamentals, but from a trend perspective it looks amazing

On The are three stocks at present that technically look very strong indeed - April 1, 2014 10:33pm

yah, they have all bases covered. I get their point, but agree with them that March is likely date. I think their spread of different probabilities highlights the market is clearly divided on when the Fed will taper.

On Morgan Stanley have March as its base case for tapering - November 13, 2013 12:46am

Your bang on...waiting for full document to be released voer the coming days. Come talk that they will be decisive in terms of the markets role, but this is by 2020!

On For all your China Third Plenum meeting headlines -... - November 13, 2013 12:44am

think y'days 14.5% collapse in Indian exports would have been felt in the gold complex for sure as well.

On BNP Paribas cut its 2014 gold forecast to $1095 - November 11, 2013 8:13pm

indeed, it was a big cut. I only have a headline, but I did see they expect a March taper, so I guess they are simply moving in line with that idea. Would be interesting to see its call on the USD, while also what supply side response would be given $1200 is seen a marginal cost of production

On BNP Paribas cut its 2014 gold forecast to $1095 - November 11, 2013 8:09pm

Sorry 12 months

On Swaps market now pricing 22bp of hike from the RBA, although this is dwarfed by the 86bp of hikes priced in from the... - November 6, 2013 10:17pm

supposidly they will if you look at market pricing..talk of bubbles has increased from a number of major market commentators this week. We'll see, but most still see growth next year in the US and thus Yellen will respond. Thats the question though as inflation is trying to base, but employment trends arnt good!

On My 3 biggest macro issues now - European short term rates, Chinese growth and timing of tapering -... - November 1, 2013 5:14am

think parity would have to be the trigger for inc rhetoric. Commodities look firm and Chinas growth is still solid, so as long as they hold up think the RBA wont be ready to take action.

On AUD/USD hits a high of 0.9745 on the CPI print, 4 pips shy of the 200-day MA - October 23, 2013 1:13am

The market is thinking we could see the cylically focused stocks actually record sales growth of 5%, which could mark and inflection point..its not just financials

On The ASX, S&P and Euro markets are overbought short-term, but dips are bought straight away - October 22, 2013 4:21am

For sure. going to be taking more cab rides to gauge a sense if I should pile into shorts!!

On The ASX, S&P and Euro markets are overbought short-term, but dips are bought straight away - October 22, 2013 3:54am