European equities remain a buy on a short-, medium- and longer-term view. EUR/USD is a sell on rallies and US stocks should see new highs. I've put together a short video on the key take-away's from the ECB meeting and what it means for the capital markets - Show More
A short video on the history of policy mistakes from the SNB and the breath taking moves in the forex markets - Show More
Green light for ECB bond buying on 22 Jan and a look ahead to the Aussie session. My quick rant Show More
These are strange times for global markets. When you see a 425-point reversal on the Dow Jones and a 48-handle move in the S&P 500 on limited news, you know things are not quite right. You could easily explain the confusion with a quick assessment, as oil prices are sitting at... Show More
The big story again has been the falls in commodities with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (measuring 22 energy, agriculture and metal prices) hitting a new 12-year low. Everyone trying to be a hero and buying oil. I am keen to wait for a base as the trend is still to strong... Show More
In this short video I look at what to expect from tonights ECB meeting. Moves in the US bond market and how the 2-year is driving the USD. I also look at selling AUD/CAD for 2015 - &list=PLR1_yjp01nYRbEQlTzhnHhLJpyR3_J0nK Show More
Given the moves in oil I look at what is really behind the falls and look at the winners and losers in the recent plunge - http://www.ig.com/au/market-update/2014/11/28/where-now-for-oil--21111 Show More
Follow the QE path and buy the CAC (and DAX). Over the years we have seen the FTSE and S&P exerting a strong correlation with the central banks balance sheet. With relative compelling valuations and a strong prospect of ECB enacting on QE I look at the set-up in the... Show More
There will certainly be a number of money managers outperforming benchmarks wishing that the year would end abruptly so they could lock in performance. Still, there is much water left to flow under the bridge, so traders need to stay vigilant. There are five weeks to Christmas and six to... Show More
EUR/USD is testing the year's low of 1.2358 this morning following on from Friday's ugly session for the single currency. Mario Draghi spoke in Frankfurt on Friday and gave a fairly stark view that full blown government bond purchases are now clearly something they are exploring. The ECB president detailed... Show More
I agree from a pure tech perspective with the short-term trend is clearly higher. The pair has failed to close above the 79 handle on a number of occasions. A close above 0.7900 and above the 24 March high of 0.7938 would be positive and signal 0.8200 could come into play. I still think the RBA cut, so would be closing out of longs prior to the announcement and prefer NZD shorts in the short-term as McDermotts comments make the prospect of a dovish RBNZ very high
They will keep buying in the private space so (after CBs/ABS) corp bonds look the next step. Think ECB wait to see how this all plays out and will see QE only when the French reform, which could be some way off. Still if we get a strong hint (not my base case) then markets should rejoice and it was always the Feds desire to end QE and hope other CBs take over There are other banks buying JGB's for benchmarking purposes but apart from that I cant see anyone else touching them!
50 DAY = 1295, 200 = 1298. Since 2000 we've seen 7 golden crosses, with 5 being profitable events, 2 negative...if you had bought on this development you would have done nicely, but that was because of the strong trend up to 2011. Since 2012 there have been two crosses and both have been poor indicators. Its all about the trend and with both MA's trading moderately higher, a cross is bullish, but it no way nearly as bullish as we have seen over the years
Against USD i see 110 coming into play, premised on increased eaing from the BOJ in April (to counter the rise in sales tax), while of course Fed paering will dirve US yields to 3.5-4% range and keep USD well bid. The JPY is hugely underowned right now and Japanese funds have been huge buyers of offshore assets..will this continue? I think it will but we will need to see Japanese inflation expectations increase and corps accross the board taking part in the pay increase we saw from Nomura last week
thanks, I'd like it to be...off to Singapore over next few days so will try and put something in after that
We haven't seen the sort of upgrades yet from sell side to suggest that valuations are less of a concern. The S&P pulled back to 15.5x forward earnings on Oct 15 and is now back at 16.5x. The 5-yr average is 14.26x, but earnings growth on this quarterly is better. The falls in yields and gasoline at lowest levels since 2010 should also help
true..plus you can throw in the bullish moves in the Dow Transport and Philli Semi conductor index
sell JPY...of course that depends on what happens...worst case would be a debt write off, but this very low probability..all seems some way off, but they need to get debt down and that is a major task...while they do this they need to work out how to keep yields low..gold i'm sure will do well
these figures are over the last decade
On Sell in May -
In Australia the ASX 200 has lost an average of 1.8% in May, with November behind at -0.7%. The financials are where we see the most pain, with an average loss of 3.6% (last two years the sector has been smashed though)..materials somewhat of a safe haven, with an average gain of +0.3%
On Sell in May -
CSI 300 - short term looks good, having rallied 9.4% since March 21. Momentum and trend indicators on daily looks constructive and the index held the 76.4% retrace of 2331 to 2077 move. I'd be a buyer of pullbacks if I could, but we cant trade this market...A50 cash is best option...this is the top 50 mainland companies, but futures trade in Singapore.. the correlation between the two is high
free float of 112m shares as well
haha...there's other than luck. I have no model I use, just sense check the lead indicators and practically do the opposite..this time I think is different. I actually see a payrolls of 220,000, which is in-line with where I think market positioning is (consensus is 200,000)..interesting to see hourly earnings as well as last month was strong +0.4%.
Too early to unwind political hedges yet...Russia still the main game and talk from Romania now of a push into Moldova...The start of a new empire?? 63% of Russian still feel they are a superpower..(although i'm sure that number would be higher in the US)
Bearish daily reversal at the trend highs a concern- with price making a higher high and closing below Fridays low
I can send it over to you if you can upload it
Weak, really weak Alex. If you work off the 1st estimate of 2013/14, the intensions of $125b was well shy of the $137b many were looking for. Non mining intensions grew 1.5%, which is hardly enough to promote the 3.75% growth needed from the non-mining space to create total economic growth of just over 2% this year. This print could be telling and given I think inflation peaks mid-year and falls, the RBA will be concerned by this. A further decline in TOT and the market will start pricing in rate cuts.
could halt the rally to a degree, but think the clever money feels she will echo comments of late from Plosser, Evans, Fisher (even Rosengren) and give impression for the Fed to deviate from current path is a high barrier.
sure, saw the cross the other week. Hard to back test what it traditionally means for gold as this is the 2nd DC on the weekly chart since 1997
I think gold stocks have also run its course and would be taking profits. Tough to get aggressive and short though
didn't listen to the whole speech, just the headlines - the crux of it though was he will 'not flinch' from supporting cuts to bond buying if stocks fall
these are November numbers though James..bit of a lagging indicator
sure, the market will react, although reaction will come from a print +0.6% or above or 0.1% or below
Core PCE could be interesting tonight, given strong number (say 1.3% or above) should push 10-yr to 3%..increasing positive real yields and pushing gold down..don't think PCE will get that high as never usually misses consensus by much, and trend is actually lower...but never say never I guess
Twitter..although i'm sure CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Sky Business will have the press conference (start 06:30 AEDT) live
wow, that really is well out of consensus...contrary to everything we have heard as well, even from the Fed doves.
I feel employment will remain a major gauge on rates. However, I think you're right though, rates are on hold for now (and likely for sometime)
its finding solid buyers on any moves to $1200. Tapering isn't tightening and all. Fed funds Dec 15 didn't even move - the fed will love that and gold bugs will like it
Goldman tracking rate for G4 now 1.3% - Barclays 1.5%..Westpac still calling for taper to start in 2015, so makes sense that they are one of the more dovish/bearish houses
I am staggered by the example...Housing!! amazing. Its about timeframes
i'd be a buyer around $1190, but for me plenty of other things i'd be long even if it did dip there. Investors/traders are just finding it hard to understand exactly what te purpose of holding gold is right now. Maybe you could shed some much needed light?
The Kouk will be loving it!
On Love this article -
cheers James. Not sure about fundamentals, but from a trend perspective it looks amazing
yah, they have all bases covered. I get their point, but agree with them that March is likely date. I think their spread of different probabilities highlights the market is clearly divided on when the Fed will taper.
Your bang on...waiting for full document to be released voer the coming days. Come talk that they will be decisive in terms of the markets role, but this is by 2020!
think y'days 14.5% collapse in Indian exports would have been felt in the gold complex for sure as well.
indeed, it was a big cut. I only have a headline, but I did see they expect a March taper, so I guess they are simply moving in line with that idea. Would be interesting to see its call on the USD, while also what supply side response would be given $1200 is seen a marginal cost of production
supposidly they will if you look at market pricing..talk of bubbles has increased from a number of major market commentators this week. We'll see, but most still see growth next year in the US and thus Yellen will respond. Thats the question though as inflation is trying to base, but employment trends arnt good!
think parity would have to be the trigger for inc rhetoric. Commodities look firm and Chinas growth is still solid, so as long as they hold up think the RBA wont be ready to take action.
The market is thinking we could see the cylically focused stocks actually record sales growth of 5%, which could mark and inflection point..its not just financials
For sure. going to be taking more cab rides to gauge a sense if I should pile into shorts!!