Unlocking the Value Inside Enero

Daniel Mueller

Marketing conglomerate Enero Group (EGG) has been a volatile and frustrating investment in recent years. Following a near death experience under previous management, the current management team gradually increased EBITDA margins. It looked like Enero was reaching its potential after a long, grinding turnaround. But in the last 10 months... Show More

Bears, Bulls and Barbecues

Daniel Mueller

Want to know what a pretty picture looks like in the eyes of a contrarian investor? Today’s Australian Financial Review (AFR) provides the answer. For those who have a hard copy, turn to page 15 of today’s edition. There are three very bearish articles on three different asset classes, Australian... Show More

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Value traps, and our newest investment

Daniel Mueller

The Australian media sector has wrecked the careers of many investors over the past decade. First were the growth investors; a decade ago high PE multiples were supposedly justified as deregulation was meant to lead to a wave of consolidation, which never occurred. Private equity emerged as the industry consolidators,... Show More

Will Amazon Destroy Australian Retailing?

Daniel Mueller

How big could Amazon be in Australia? There have been recent media reports that the U.S. online giant will hit our shores next year. The company, or at least an unnamed executive, has stated an intention to “destroy” Australian retail. And why not? Australian retail margins are among the largest... Show More

Will Ingham’s be the Next Dick Smith?

Daniel Mueller

Just how similar are the Ingham’s and Dick Smith IPOs? Both are (or in Dick Smith’s case, were) iconic Australian businesses. Private equity firms bought both businesses from trade owners. They then floated them for healthy gains (Ingham’s lists this coming Monday). And in both cases, private equity sold a... Show More

Found: A Central Bank that is a Second Order Thinker

Daniel Mueller

Perhaps I’m overly sceptical, but unprecedented actions by central bankers around the world—zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) usurped by negative interest rate policy (NIRP), asset-buying programs being extended into corporate bonds and even shares, a ‘whatever it takes’ mentality—strikes me as firmly first order thinking. First order thinking refers to... Show More

Coal Provides 2016’s Biggest Lesson

Daniel Mueller

Want to learn the biggest lesson of 2016? Look no further than commodity prices. The first 10 months of the year have seen an extraordinary rebound in sentiment towards commodities, particularly coal. There was a lot of money to be made as well as an important lesson to be learned. Show More

Three Great Shareholder Escapes

Daniel Mueller

What would have happened to St George Bank had Westpac not acquired it right before the pointy end of the GFC? How would Rinker have fared had Cemex not taken it over, months before one of the largest building downturns in US history? Had SABMiller not acquired Fosters, would it... Show More

Jumping the Gun on Woolworths

Daniel Mueller

Woolworths’ share price has been on a tear the last two months, up 21%. And last week, Mr Market got particularly excited about a little sentence in its 2016 financial report. Tucked away on page 77 of 101 it reads “Comparable sales for the eight weeks ended 21 August 2016... Show More

Hybrids – Debt and Equity’s Unattractive Offspring

Daniel Mueller

What have you found in your junk email folder recently? Numerous notifications of inheritance (I didn’t realise I had so many deceased uncles domiciled in Africa)? Offers of companionship, predominantly the Eastern European variety? Once you’ve sifted through these you might also find several prospectuses for hybrids. Show More

Reporting Season and the Aussie Dollar

Daniel Mueller

Reporting season is on our doorstep. This biannual affair, occurring every February and August, is where companies report their half year and full year earnings. It can be a time of backslapping or a time for airing dirty laundry. And its lead-up is associated with an abundance of crystal ball... Show More

Central Banks: First Order Thinkers?

Daniel Mueller

Forager's Vienna-based European analyst, Gareth Brown, provides an interesting insight into the problems of central bank policy. Gareth applies behavioural psychology to examine the actions of central bankers and their unintended consequences. Show More

More Woes Ahead for Asaleo

Daniel Mueller

Personal care and hygiene company Asaleo Care announced a nasty downgrade today. It now expects profit for 2016 to decrease 15% on 2015, whereas previous guidance was steady. A little disappointing for a company that sells well-known branded staples like Sorbent tissues and Libra feminine hygiene. Show More

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