In recent weeks I have been buying gold in the portfolio. Here's why. Show More
Today I want to present a range of big picture graphs from a long term perspective. I get the sense that as the world gets officially Brexited and Trumped, we are experiencing a gradual but pivotal global economic turning point. The implications wont be felt in an instant, they will... Show More
I always considered both candidates as negative influences on the World once elected. Both being ethically challenged and morally bankrupt. Show More
The Fed is clearly setting the stage to raise rates before the end of the year. They seem inclined to want to do that anyway. Yesterday Mr Fischer gave a fascinating dissertation to the Economic Club of New York which you can see a snippet in the report below. It's... Show More
Is this a co-incidence? or pure Politics at play? Show More
Today I present four charts which outlines our key market themes and portfolio positioning as we face ongoing Brexit uncertainty and malaise, a ever tightening US election race and a domestic weakening of Merkel's political powers in Germany. Show More
A year ago I sat here thinking that economic fundamentals mattered most when being a global macro investor. The "fundamentals" were driving my calls and it was working. It is exactly one year since my bearish, "fundamental" view of Commodities, Stocks and China lead the portfolio to enjoy the gains... Show More
Today the DAX has reached a 20% return since its February lows. Therefore entering what is known as a bull market. Show More
Nassim Bin Taleb is a legend of decision theory, risk and probability. He also developed the concept of "Antifragility" and proceeded to write the book on it. Show More
To commence the second half of the year, we start cranking the levers of our economic models in the direction of 2017. Show More
Isn't "fair value" when futures are in line with spot?
Thanks you Rudi, tell me when you think I am wrong too!