Dean Fergie

Dean has over 25 years experience in the funds management industry covering all major asset classes. He holds as Master of Applied Finance and is a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.

Expertise

5 fresh IPOs worth a look

Dean Fergie

Business news can be seasonally quiet in June with companies approaching reporting blackout. Investors do however get to enjoy a fresh round of IPO's eager to attract their hard-earned capital. Show More

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The financials that will sail through the storm

Dean Fergie

The Royal Commission findings have sent a shockwave through the broader financial community. Here we look at potential opportunities it is creating outside of the main banks. Show More

A profitable experience with a bitter end

Dean Fergie

Readers might well be aware of the challenges one of our long-term holdings, alternative asset manager Blue Sky (BLA), has faced since Glaucus, a US based short seller, released a scathingly negative report on the business at the end of March with the company entering into a trading halt over... Show More

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3 fallen angels revisited

Dean Fergie

There's a saying that investors should never try to catch a falling safe. To elaborate on that phrase, we like to let the safe hit the ground, see a few dollars fall out, and then walk up and collect a portion of the loot. Show More

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GetSwift: A study in Elation, Frustration and Redemption

Dean Fergie

In light of recent press, it's topical to talk about our experience with GetSwift (GSW) over the past 15 months. In December 2016 we invested a small amount of the Fund (around 1.5%) into the GSW IPO at 20c. Show More

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Spirit Telecom - the silver lining on NBN's cloud

Dean Fergie

Spirit Telecom appears to be emerging as a major beneficiary of the NBN's underwhelming high-speed internet deployment. As professional investors, we're always looking for an angle to make a dollar. And one company's misstep is often another's opportunity. Show More

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Would I lie to you? The 6 company mistruths to be wary of...

Dean Fergie

Company management has, at times, been known to 'stretch the truth' when communicating with investors. So, with February reporting about to start in earnest, we thought it timely to highlight 6 common types of 'mistruths' to keep a watch for... Show More

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Looking outside the large caps for growth

Dean Fergie

I believe the run in the small caps has been driven by investors looking down the size curve to generate better investment outcomes. Simply, the big caps have just not been performing. Show More

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8 strategies for selecting small caps

Dean Fergie

One reason regularly quoted to buy a certain stock is because it offers ‘good value’. It is certainly an easy (and lazy) argument for stockbrokers to recommend a company. When I select stocks in the small cap space (ex ASX200) I do not focus on value as I find 'value’... Show More

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Jetstar unequivocally validates Afterpay Touch

Dean Fergie

Wednesday's watershed announcement that budget airline Jetstar, wholly owned by the $10bn ASX listed Qantas, is partnering with Afterpay Touch (APT) to offer the Afterpay services to its customers, unequivocally validates Afterpay as a genuine player in the Australian payments space. Show More

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Capitol Health’s continued recovery

Dean Fergie

Radiology and diagnostic imaging service provider, Capitol Health (CAJ), has announced their preliminary full year EBITDA result of $22m, 10% ahead of prior guidance. Along with the previously announced sale of their NSW assets (settling August 2017), the company’s total debt of $50m will be eliminated taking the business to... Show More

Capitol Health ASX:CAJ August 2017 Reporting Season

Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks?

Dean Fergie

Automotive Holdings (ASX:AHG) issued a downgraded earnings report this week, joining fellow automotive retailers AP Eagers (ASX:APE), Automotive Solutions (ASX:4WD) and Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL), all of which have all guided expectations down in the just past month. With this cohort experiencing an average price fall of over 25% in... Show More

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5 reasons why this acquisitive industrial ASX mid-cap will continue to re-rate.

Dean Fergie

This company has been flying since joining the ASX boards in March 2015, with its shares having gained 200%. Is it time to jump out of the Skydive the Beach (ASX:SKB) plane? We certainly think not. Show More

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The risks of investing in Chinese value traps

Dean Fergie

A red card for XPD Soccer highlights the risks of investing in Chinese 'value traps'. As a vertically integrated manufacturer, distributor and retailer of soccer boots in China, XPD Soccer (ASX:XPD) had all the hallmarks of an exciting business. Leveraging the growth in China, multiplied by the growth in the... Show More

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Money3’s metrics are outstanding

Dean Fergie

Domestic credit provider Money3 has posted a solid 1H17 result reporting an NPAT of $13.7m, well ahead of market expectations. New management installed last year have now proven themselves by profitably driving the company’s new strategic direction. Previously exposed to the controversial (and regulatory risky) small amount credit contracts (SACC),... Show More

asx:mny February 2017 Reporting Season

Ow! Yowie … Exec Director Wayne Loxton resigns

Dean Fergie

Confectionary manufacturer Yowie has seen its executive director - and main promoter - Wayne Loxton resign unexpectedly from the company. Whilst he will stay on in the interim as non-exec Chairman, with just two other directors, the company will be rapidly looking for a replacment as the Corporations Act requires... Show More

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Another market darling falls from grace

Dean Fergie

Isentia, the Australian-based media monitoring company, is the latest market star to fall from grace, down 36% on the day of its results. Isentia enjoyed a market cap touching almost $1bn at its peak, but is now wallowing at almost one third of that hefty valuation. Show More

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Result of the week: Afterpay

Dean Fergie

Afterpay (AFY.ASX), a provider of interest-free payment solutions for retail customers, has consistently beaten market expectations since listing in April 2016. That trend has continued this week with its 1H17 result producing some truly astonishing trading metrics: underlying sales of $145m (+370%); revenue of $6m (+417%) and an inaugural operating... Show More

ASX:AFY February 2017 Reporting Season

Five reasons to consider BlueSky for the portfolio

Dean Fergie

Blue Sky has just announced a 130% increase in 1H17 NPAT to $10.1m, and a 59% growth in assets under management to $2.7bn over the pcp. This impressive result has been driven by Blue Sky’s unique asset class offerings that include Private Equity, Real Assets (largely water rights and agriculture),... Show More

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The honeymoon is over for Carsales

Dean Fergie

In the December 16 half, Carsales has reported a negative like-for-like profit for the first time. Whilst this was impacted by a write-down in the company’s investment in iCar Asia and a poorly performing finance division, all financial metrics point to a rapidly maturing business. Mundane, low double-digit growth in... Show More

ASX:CAR ASX:ICQ February 2017 Reporting Season Carsales

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There is presently a huge discrepancy between Zip and Afterpay's profitability which makes the concept of value somewhat extraneous. In the just released 1H FY18 numbers, Afterpay reported earnings (EBTDA) of $5.5m, Zip reported a loss of $13.1m.

On Much more growth ahead for Afterpay -

In respect to BPS: I was particularly intrigued by the 16 November announcement by the incumbent board to: "revoke the Dividend ... pending the outcome of its AGM ...". Hardly an effective way to promote ongoing board support I would have thought. And in the same release the board announced the establishment of a share buy-back and yet 6 days later are coming to the market to raise $10m in fresh equity at a 10% discount....!!

On The New Criterion: the shareholders are revolting -

Hi Tim, We use both Factset www.factset.com and IRESS www.iress.com/au/ to import the data into our models. These information systems provide an exhaustive amount of data but are also very expensive. Unfortunately I don't know of any data providers that could supply you with that data in a cost effective manner.

On 8 strategies for selecting small caps -

Hi Aaron, thanks for your comments. You're exactly right with your views with respect to momentum. Often these momentum trades occur in 'waves' or 'surges' with strong performance periods interspersed with periods of, sometimes quite severe, pullbacks. What we aim to achieve is to have higher weightings during the periods of surges and lighten off during period of retracement. Of course that’s easier said than done, but effectively we never buy into falling prices, we only buy when positive momentum is growing. And we lighten off when positive momentum appears to be easing. Again, never expect that you’ll be able to buy everything at the bottom nor sell everything at the top. You have to be happy to leave something on the table for the next person….!

On 8 strategies for selecting small caps -

It's understandable that Australian investors are cynical about the future value of these unproven tech businesses. Unfortunately there have been only a handful of domestic success stories and plenty of disappointments. Indeed if these ASX listed stocks are perceived as undervalued because the ASX market is not "Tech-savvy" then the question must be asked as to why the directors of these companies resolved to list them locally in the first place?

On Proof-of-the-pudding syndrome creates opportunities in Tech sector -

Hi Phil, Thanks for you comments, you're completely correct, the recent declines in sales have been concentrated in WA and QLD and it is very likely that this is primarily a result of the fall-off in the commodity sector. However the counter-argument is that there had previously been an unusually high-level of sales as a result of falling interest rates and a booming mining sector. Of course the car sector is not alone, retailers across the board appear to be struggling this year. But drawing a direct statistical link between car 'turnover' and a decline in sales is impractical, particularly in the short-term. It is simply my opinion, but one I am confident has merit.

On Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks? -

I don't see driverless being widely adopted for more than a decade or two (government regulation will be the greatest hurdle for widespread use) but as theme becomes more apparent, investors will start reconsidering their approach and the valuations they apply to these stocks.

On Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks? -

Hi Jerome, XPD was floated by BBY (when they were still around). The Enice raise was led by Investorlink and PAC; CDC by Philip Capital and WMC by Beer and Co. Glancing at the registers, these stocks to date do not appear to have attracted much interest from domestic institutional investors.

On The risks of investing in Chinese value traps -