Dean Fergie

Often it's said that finding investments in the small cap market is akin to walking along the beach turning over rocks in search of gems. It's an endless task and one that is more often met with disappointment than prosperity. Sometimes, though, it's worth starting over by returning to those... Show More

Dean Fergie

Splitit (ASX:SPT) has had an incredible debut on the ASX since its listing on the 29th January 2019, with the stock galloping from its 20c IPO price to an intraday day high of 74c before settling at 55c on the 31st January; an extraordinary 175% two-day gain. Show More

Dean Fergie

Companies in the IPO phase are often mispriced at issue. They are rarely independently researched, there is often little knowledge of the business, finances and management, and there is certainly no efficient pricing history. These factors all contribute to market inefficiencies which can be a real source of opportunity (and,... Show More

Dean Fergie

At the start of the year, I wrote a wire called 'Would I lie to you? The 6 company mistruths to be wary of...' on the 'overly optimistic' figures from company management. The companies I called out are now down 25% on average, but there is one outlier on the... Show More

Dean Fergie

One reason regularly quoted to buy a certain stock is because it offers ‘good value’. It is certainly an easy (and lazy) argument for stockbrokers to recommend a company. When I select stocks in the small cap space (ex ASX200) I do not focus on value as I find 'value’... Show More

Dean Fergie

Domestic credit provider Money3 has posted a solid 1H17 result reporting an NPAT of $13.7m, well ahead of market expectations. New management installed last year have now proven themselves by profitably driving the company’s new strategic direction. Previously exposed to the controversial (and regulatory risky) small amount credit contracts (SACC),... Show More

In respect to regulatory concerns, SPT is the least likely to be affected. Firstly SPT has almost no presence to date in Australia, indeed most of the new merchants and customers being targeted are in the US and Europe. Secondly, in its simplest terms, SPT operates a payments 'gateway' between the credit card company and the customer. SPT do not have any direct credit exposure to the customer hence are unlikely to experience regulatory scrutiny.

On Is Splitit the next Afterpay? -

Hi Dragan, I've been crunching my numbers from the 4C cashflow statements which do differ from the revenue figures in the P/L. Given the 4C in FY17 was $0.9m above the P/L revenue, it will be interesting to see what discrepancy there is in FY18 when LVT's P/L is reported in the coming weeks.

On Why I won’t be feeding the monster -

Hi Alex, your comparison of APT to a traditional credit card business is quite common. There are a couple of nuances of the APT business model that are important and, I believe, make the company a markedly superior investment proposition. Firstly the payback cycle on any APT transaction is remarkably rapid, just 6 weeks in total. If any instalments is missed, no further purchases can be made through the platform. Secondly, the total transaction values are small, typically a maximum of $500. I think this makes APT less likely to incur significant bad debt provisions in a deteriorating credit cycle. Certainly, to date, this has been the experience with APT’s net transaction loss running at around 0.7%.

On Afterpay: Silencing the doubters -

There is presently a huge discrepancy between Zip and Afterpay's profitability which makes the concept of value somewhat extraneous. In the just released 1H FY18 numbers, Afterpay reported earnings (EBTDA) of $5.5m, Zip reported a loss of $13.1m.

On Much more growth ahead for Afterpay -

In respect to BPS: I was particularly intrigued by the 16 November announcement by the incumbent board to: "revoke the Dividend ... pending the outcome of its AGM ...". Hardly an effective way to promote ongoing board support I would have thought. And in the same release the board announced the establishment of a share buy-back and yet 6 days later are coming to the market to raise $10m in fresh equity at a 10% discount....!!

On The New Criterion: the shareholders are revolting -

Hi Tim, We use both Factset and IRESS to import the data into our models. These information systems provide an exhaustive amount of data but are also very expensive. Unfortunately I don't know of any data providers that could supply you with that data in a cost effective manner.

On 8 strategies for selecting small caps -

Hi Aaron, thanks for your comments. You're exactly right with your views with respect to momentum. Often these momentum trades occur in 'waves' or 'surges' with strong performance periods interspersed with periods of, sometimes quite severe, pullbacks. What we aim to achieve is to have higher weightings during the periods of surges and lighten off during period of retracement. Of course that’s easier said than done, but effectively we never buy into falling prices, we only buy when positive momentum is growing. And we lighten off when positive momentum appears to be easing. Again, never expect that you’ll be able to buy everything at the bottom nor sell everything at the top. You have to be happy to leave something on the table for the next person….!

On 8 strategies for selecting small caps -

It's understandable that Australian investors are cynical about the future value of these unproven tech businesses. Unfortunately there have been only a handful of domestic success stories and plenty of disappointments. Indeed if these ASX listed stocks are perceived as undervalued because the ASX market is not "Tech-savvy" then the question must be asked as to why the directors of these companies resolved to list them locally in the first place?

On Proof-of-the-pudding syndrome creates opportunities in Tech sector -

Hi Phil, Thanks for you comments, you're completely correct, the recent declines in sales have been concentrated in WA and QLD and it is very likely that this is primarily a result of the fall-off in the commodity sector. However the counter-argument is that there had previously been an unusually high-level of sales as a result of falling interest rates and a booming mining sector. Of course the car sector is not alone, retailers across the board appear to be struggling this year. But drawing a direct statistical link between car 'turnover' and a decline in sales is impractical, particularly in the short-term. It is simply my opinion, but one I am confident has merit.

On Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks? -

I don't see driverless being widely adopted for more than a decade or two (government regulation will be the greatest hurdle for widespread use) but as theme becomes more apparent, investors will start reconsidering their approach and the valuations they apply to these stocks.

On Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks? -

Hi Jerome, XPD was floated by BBY (when they were still around). The Enice raise was led by Investorlink and PAC; CDC by Philip Capital and WMC by Beer and Co. Glancing at the registers, these stocks to date do not appear to have attracted much interest from domestic institutional investors.

On The risks of investing in Chinese value traps -