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Dean Fergie

Jetstar unequivocally validates Afterpay Touch

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

Wednesday's watershed announcement that budget airline Jetstar, wholly owned by the $10bn ASX listed Qantas, is partnering with Afterpay Touch (APT) to offer the Afterpay services to its customers, unequivocally validates Afterpay as a genuine player in the Australian payments space. Show More

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Capitol Health’s continued recovery

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

Radiology and diagnostic imaging service provider, Capitol Health (CAJ), has announced their preliminary full year EBITDA result of $22m, 10% ahead of prior guidance. Along with the previously announced sale of their NSW assets (settling August 2017), the company’s total debt of $50m will be eliminated taking the business to... Show More

Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks?

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

Automotive Holdings (ASX:AHG) issued a downgraded earnings report this week, joining fellow automotive retailers AP Eagers (ASX:APE), Automotive Solutions (ASX:4WD) and Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL), all of which have all guided expectations down in the just past month. With this cohort experiencing an average price fall of over 25% in... Show More

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The risks of investing in Chinese value traps

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

A red card for XPD Soccer highlights the risks of investing in Chinese 'value traps'. As a vertically integrated manufacturer, distributor and retailer of soccer boots in China, XPD Soccer (ASX:XPD) had all the hallmarks of an exciting business. Leveraging the growth in China, multiplied by the growth in the... Show More

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Money3’s metrics are outstanding

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

Domestic credit provider Money3 has posted a solid 1H17 result reporting an NPAT of $13.7m, well ahead of market expectations. New management installed last year have now proven themselves by profitably driving the company’s new strategic direction. Previously exposed to the controversial (and regulatory risky) small amount credit contracts (SACC),... Show More

Ow! Yowie … Exec Director Wayne Loxton resigns

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

Confectionary manufacturer Yowie has seen its executive director - and main promoter - Wayne Loxton resign unexpectedly from the company. Whilst he will stay on in the interim as non-exec Chairman, with just two other directors, the company will be rapidly looking for a replacment as the Corporations Act requires... Show More

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Result of the week: Afterpay

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

Afterpay (AFY.ASX), a provider of interest-free payment solutions for retail customers, has consistently beaten market expectations since listing in April 2016. That trend has continued this week with its 1H17 result producing some truly astonishing trading metrics: underlying sales of $145m (+370%); revenue of $6m (+417%) and an inaugural operating... Show More

Five reasons to consider BlueSky for the portfolio

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

Blue Sky has just announced a 130% increase in 1H17 NPAT to $10.1m, and a 59% growth in assets under management to $2.7bn over the pcp. This impressive result has been driven by Blue Sky’s unique asset class offerings that include Private Equity, Real Assets (largely water rights and agriculture),... Show More

The honeymoon is over for Carsales

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

In the December 16 half, Carsales has reported a negative like-for-like profit for the first time. Whilst this was impacted by a write-down in the company’s investment in iCar Asia and a poorly performing finance division, all financial metrics point to a rapidly maturing business. Mundane, low double-digit growth in... Show More

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Analysing results for pre-profit companies

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

Cyan’s primary focus is to invest in commercially proven businesses entering or enjoying a growth phase. These businesses need not be bottom-line profitable, thus traditional earnings metrics (PE, dividend yield, ROE type metrics) can be irrelevant. However, ‘commercially proven’, for us, translates as ‘generating revenue’ and hence there are other... Show More

One smallcap industrial stock we like

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

If interest rates continue to rise, it would indicate a loosening of monetary policy and a pro-growth, high-spending political and economic environment. Initially, and understandably, the bond-proxy and income stocks have sold-off markedly: property trusts, infrastructure and, in Australia, the major banks and telcos. Liquidated funds would quite rightly be... Show More

Skydive the Beach - Out of the flying plane and into Cairns shire.

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

SKB has made a company transformative move in its acquisition of Cairns based adventure tourism company, Raging Thunder (RT). This marks SKB's first move outside its traditional skydiving business and opens up a myriad of new opportunities and prospects to its young, but already incredibly successful, business model. Show More

PSC Insurance - Acquisitions Driving Growth

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

PSI is a little-known consolidator of insurance brokers that landed on the ASX last December. In no uncertain terms, its inaugural FY16 report was a cracker. Revenue increased 34% over FY15 with this number over 20% ahead of prospectus. The underlying NPATA at $14.3m was 15% ahead of prospectus. Remember,... Show More

Why Freelancer (ASX:FLN) is likely to become Australia's largest global online technology business.

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

With August 2016 reporting season having now kicked off, investors will again focus on real numbers versus 'blue sky' technology promises. FLN sets itself well apart by having a genuine cash-flow positive business that has proven itself over an 8 year lifespan. Show More

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Why Afterpay (ASX:AFY) is one of Cyan's top small-cap picks.

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

This morning the recently listed Afterpay (ASX:AFY) announced its first quarter results with all metrics (merchants, end-customers, merchant sales and, importantly, fees to AFY) up over 100% in the June quarter. Even before today's announcement, the stock had risen more than 60% since its ASX debut in early May 2016.... Show More

Skydive the Beach - Selling Excitement (and Narcissism)

Dean Fergie
Dean Fergie Cyan Investment Management

If my social media feed is anything to go by, there is a growing propensity for individuals to now do 'exciting things' because they can tell the world about it online. Show More

It's understandable that Australian investors are cynical about the future value of these unproven tech businesses. Unfortunately there have been only a handful of domestic success stories and plenty of disappointments. Indeed if these ASX listed stocks are perceived as undervalued because the ASX market is not "Tech-savvy" then the question must be asked as to why the directors of these companies resolved to list them locally in the first place?

On Proof-of-the-pudding syndrome creates opportunities in Tech sector -

Hi Phil, Thanks for you comments, you're completely correct, the recent declines in sales have been concentrated in WA and QLD and it is very likely that this is primarily a result of the fall-off in the commodity sector. However the counter-argument is that there had previously been an unusually high-level of sales as a result of falling interest rates and a booming mining sector. Of course the car sector is not alone, retailers across the board appear to be struggling this year. But drawing a direct statistical link between car 'turnover' and a decline in sales is impractical, particularly in the short-term. It is simply my opinion, but one I am confident has merit.

On Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks? -

I don't see driverless being widely adopted for more than a decade or two (government regulation will be the greatest hurdle for widespread use) but as theme becomes more apparent, investors will start reconsidering their approach and the valuations they apply to these stocks.

On Pile-Up! What is Wrong with Domestic Automotive Stocks? -

Hi Jerome, XPD was floated by BBY (when they were still around). The Enice raise was led by Investorlink and PAC; CDC by Philip Capital and WMC by Beer and Co. Glancing at the registers, these stocks to date do not appear to have attracted much interest from domestic institutional investors.

On The risks of investing in Chinese value traps -