At the start of the year, I wrote a wire called 'Would I lie to you? The 6 company mistruths to be wary of...' on the 'overly optimistic' figures from company management. The companies I called out are now down 25% on average, but there is one outlier on the... Show More
Business news can be seasonally quiet in June with companies approaching reporting blackout. Investors do however get to enjoy a fresh round of IPO's eager to attract their hard-earned capital. Show More
The Royal Commission findings have sent a shockwave through the broader financial community. Here we look at potential opportunities it is creating outside of the main banks. Show More
Readers might well be aware of the challenges one of our long-term holdings, alternative asset manager Blue Sky (BLA), has faced since Glaucus, a US based short seller, released a scathingly negative report on the business at the end of March with the company entering into a trading halt over... Show More
There's a saying that investors should never try to catch a falling safe. To elaborate on that phrase, we like to let the safe hit the ground, see a few dollars fall out, and then walk up and collect a portion of the loot. Show More
In light of recent press, it's topical to talk about our experience with GetSwift (GSW) over the past 15 months. In December 2016 we invested a small amount of the Fund (around 1.5%) into the GSW IPO at 20c. Show More
Spirit Telecom appears to be emerging as a major beneficiary of the NBN's underwhelming high-speed internet deployment. As professional investors, we're always looking for an angle to make a dollar. And one company's misstep is often another's opportunity. Show More
Company management has, at times, been known to 'stretch the truth' when communicating with investors. So, with February reporting about to start in earnest, we thought it timely to highlight 6 common types of 'mistruths' to keep a watch for... Show More
I believe the run in the small caps has been driven by investors looking down the size curve to generate better investment outcomes. Simply, the big caps have just not been performing. Show More
One reason regularly quoted to buy a certain stock is because it offers ‘good value’. It is certainly an easy (and lazy) argument for stockbrokers to recommend a company. When I select stocks in the small cap space (ex ASX200) I do not focus on value as I find 'value’... Show More
Wednesday's watershed announcement that budget airline Jetstar, wholly owned by the $10bn ASX listed Qantas, is partnering with Afterpay Touch (APT) to offer the Afterpay services to its customers, unequivocally validates Afterpay as a genuine player in the Australian payments space. Show More
Radiology and diagnostic imaging service provider, Capitol Health (CAJ), has announced their preliminary full year EBITDA result of $22m, 10% ahead of prior guidance. Along with the previously announced sale of their NSW assets (settling August 2017), the company’s total debt of $50m will be eliminated taking the business to... Show More
Automotive Holdings (ASX:AHG) issued a downgraded earnings report this week, joining fellow automotive retailers AP Eagers (ASX:APE), Automotive Solutions (ASX:4WD) and Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL), all of which have all guided expectations down in the just past month. With this cohort experiencing an average price fall of over 25% in... Show More
This company has been flying since joining the ASX boards in March 2015, with its shares having gained 200%. Is it time to jump out of the Skydive the Beach (ASX:SKB) plane? We certainly think not. Show More
A red card for XPD Soccer highlights the risks of investing in Chinese 'value traps'. As a vertically integrated manufacturer, distributor and retailer of soccer boots in China, XPD Soccer (ASX:XPD) had all the hallmarks of an exciting business. Leveraging the growth in China, multiplied by the growth in the... Show More
Domestic credit provider Money3 has posted a solid 1H17 result reporting an NPAT of $13.7m, well ahead of market expectations. New management installed last year have now proven themselves by profitably driving the company’s new strategic direction. Previously exposed to the controversial (and regulatory risky) small amount credit contracts (SACC),... Show More
Confectionary manufacturer Yowie has seen its executive director - and main promoter - Wayne Loxton resign unexpectedly from the company. Whilst he will stay on in the interim as non-exec Chairman, with just two other directors, the company will be rapidly looking for a replacment as the Corporations Act requires... Show More
Isentia, the Australian-based media monitoring company, is the latest market star to fall from grace, down 36% on the day of its results. Isentia enjoyed a market cap touching almost $1bn at its peak, but is now wallowing at almost one third of that hefty valuation. Show More
Afterpay (AFY.ASX), a provider of interest-free payment solutions for retail customers, has consistently beaten market expectations since listing in April 2016. That trend has continued this week with its 1H17 result producing some truly astonishing trading metrics: underlying sales of $145m (+370%); revenue of $6m (+417%) and an inaugural operating... Show More
Blue Sky has just announced a 130% increase in 1H17 NPAT to $10.1m, and a 59% growth in assets under management to $2.7bn over the pcp. This impressive result has been driven by Blue Sky’s unique asset class offerings that include Private Equity, Real Assets (largely water rights and agriculture),... Show More
Hi Dragan, I've been crunching my numbers from the 4C cashflow statements which do differ from the revenue figures in the P/L. Given the 4C in FY17 was $0.9m above the P/L revenue, it will be interesting to see what discrepancy there is in FY18 when LVT's P/L is reported in the coming weeks.
Hi Alex, your comparison of APT to a traditional credit card business is quite common. There are a couple of nuances of the APT business model that are important and, I believe, make the company a markedly superior investment proposition. Firstly the payback cycle on any APT transaction is remarkably rapid, just 6 weeks in total. If any instalments is missed, no further purchases can be made through the platform. Secondly, the total transaction values are small, typically a maximum of $500. I think this makes APT less likely to incur significant bad debt provisions in a deteriorating credit cycle. Certainly, to date, this has been the experience with APT’s net transaction loss running at around 0.7%.
There is presently a huge discrepancy between Zip and Afterpay's profitability which makes the concept of value somewhat extraneous. In the just released 1H FY18 numbers, Afterpay reported earnings (EBTDA) of $5.5m, Zip reported a loss of $13.1m.
In respect to BPS: I was particularly intrigued by the 16 November announcement by the incumbent board to: "revoke the Dividend ... pending the outcome of its AGM ...". Hardly an effective way to promote ongoing board support I would have thought. And in the same release the board announced the establishment of a share buy-back and yet 6 days later are coming to the market to raise $10m in fresh equity at a 10% discount....!!
Hi Tim, We use both Factset www.factset.com and IRESS www.iress.com/au/ to import the data into our models. These information systems provide an exhaustive amount of data but are also very expensive. Unfortunately I don't know of any data providers that could supply you with that data in a cost effective manner.
Hi Aaron, thanks for your comments. You're exactly right with your views with respect to momentum. Often these momentum trades occur in 'waves' or 'surges' with strong performance periods interspersed with periods of, sometimes quite severe, pullbacks. What we aim to achieve is to have higher weightings during the periods of surges and lighten off during period of retracement. Of course that’s easier said than done, but effectively we never buy into falling prices, we only buy when positive momentum is growing. And we lighten off when positive momentum appears to be easing. Again, never expect that you’ll be able to buy everything at the bottom nor sell everything at the top. You have to be happy to leave something on the table for the next person….!
It's understandable that Australian investors are cynical about the future value of these unproven tech businesses. Unfortunately there have been only a handful of domestic success stories and plenty of disappointments. Indeed if these ASX listed stocks are perceived as undervalued because the ASX market is not "Tech-savvy" then the question must be asked as to why the directors of these companies resolved to list them locally in the first place?
Hi Phil, Thanks for you comments, you're completely correct, the recent declines in sales have been concentrated in WA and QLD and it is very likely that this is primarily a result of the fall-off in the commodity sector. However the counter-argument is that there had previously been an unusually high-level of sales as a result of falling interest rates and a booming mining sector. Of course the car sector is not alone, retailers across the board appear to be struggling this year. But drawing a direct statistical link between car 'turnover' and a decline in sales is impractical, particularly in the short-term. It is simply my opinion, but one I am confident has merit.
I don't see driverless being widely adopted for more than a decade or two (government regulation will be the greatest hurdle for widespread use) but as theme becomes more apparent, investors will start reconsidering their approach and the valuations they apply to these stocks.
Appreciate the transparency and insight in this interview. Great read.
Got down safely thanks Alex...! Quite a view from above Wollongong that day.
Hi Jerome, XPD was floated by BBY (when they were still around). The Enice raise was led by Investorlink and PAC; CDC by Philip Capital and WMC by Beer and Co. Glancing at the registers, these stocks to date do not appear to have attracted much interest from domestic institutional investors.