Elliot Clarke

A quick update on Brexit; the RBA outlook; where we stand with the Federal election; and Australia being put on negative watch by S&P. Next week the focus will be on consumer and business confidence in Australia, and the Bank of England in the UK. Show More

Elliot Clarke

A week on from the Brexit decision, the outlook remains decidedly uncertain. Equity markets have rallied back, as has the AUD. But sterling remains near its lows amid expectations of further easing. It will be September/October before new leadership takes over in the UK and the formal exit process can... Show More

Elliot Clarke

In this week's edition, Chief Economist Bill Evans assesses the implications of the Q1 GDP report for the June RBA meeting and beyond. The RBNZ also meets this week; a summary of our NZ team's expectations are also included herein. https://wibiq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2016/June/WestpacWeekly20160606.pdf Show More

Elliot Clarke

This week the focus is on Australian Q1 GDP; the ECB; and finally come Friday, on nonfarm payrolls in the US. The weekly essay in this edition covers off on our expectations for Australian GDP. https://wibiq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2016/May/WestpacWeekly20160530.pdf Show More

Elliot Clarke

This week in Australia, we start the run to Q1 GDP with the key CAPEX survey and construction work done release. In NZ, the 2016 Budget is handed down, while our Westpac-MNI China consumer sentiment survey is released for May. Finally, in the northern hemisphere, durable goods gives an update... Show More

Elliot Clarke

Minutes from the RBA and FOMC will provide further clarity on the outlook for policy this week. We also await an update on the Australian labour market: wages on Wednesday; then jobs and unemployment on Thursday. https://wibiq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2016/May/wkly20120516.pdf Show More

Elliot Clarke

This week we preview the Australian CPI; April FOMC and RBNZ meetings; as well as US and Euro Area Q1 GDP. Together with the Bank of Japan policy meeting, these will be the key events for markets. https://wibiq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2016/April/WestpacWeekly20160425.pdf Show More

Elliot Clarke

The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, fell from –1.07% in February to –1.53% in March. The Leading Index continues to point to a material loss of momentum and growth... Show More

Elliot Clarke

This week Chief Economist Bill Evans considers the outlook for China and the Fed and the consequences for the Australian dollar. In terms of data, the latest Westpac-MI Leading Index will be released as will the RBA April meeting minutes. Offshore a number of central banks including the ECB will... Show More

Elliot Clarke

Australian consumer sentiment was disappointing in April, the index falling 4% to 95, materially below the 100 optimist/pessimist divide. Family finances and economic expectations both deteriorated, and there was clear evidence of concerns regarding housing affordability. On the labour market, the key result was the marginal improvement in the unemployment... Show More

Elliot Clarke

From Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans. The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 4.0% in April from 99.1 in March to 95.1 in April. This is a disappointing result. After holding above 100 in the November–February period, the Index has now been below 100 for two consecutive... Show More

Elliot Clarke

This week's update focuses on Westpac-MI consumer sentiment for March and the ECB's March meeting. On consumer sentiment, family finances are under pressure, and this is impacting households' willingness to spend and their investment preferences. Perceptions of the housing market look to be stabilising though. In Europe, the ECB met... Show More

Elliot Clarke

This week highlighted the risks to the Australian economy emanating from weak investment; soft business confidence; and flat real wages growth. Also, on developments in China, the Westpac-MNI China Consumer Sentiment survey showed how weak exports continue to impact employment conditions, in turn putting at risk momentum in consumption. In... Show More

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