Red or blue? What to expect from the American midterms

Fidelity International

We conducted a cross-asset scenario analysis on potential outcomes from the upcoming midterm elections in the United States. Using both a macro and a bottom-up approach, our base case was for a Democratic House of Representatives and a Republican Senate, but we also considered the possibility of a sweep in... Show More

Choppier waters ahead

Fidelity International

The start of 2018 has been anything but ‘business as usual’. Markets were buffeted first by inflation concerns and then trade protectionism. Equities fell and bond yields rose significantly as a result. So is it the beginning of the end for this long bull market cycle or is it the... Show More

This may be as good as it gets

Fidelity International

At the turn of the year, we ask our analysts how companies see the year ahead, and how they are positioning their businesses for what they think is coming. Our Analyst Survey is a barometer of executives’ plans and their fears; of companies’ resilience and their growth ambitions; and of... Show More

Ten quotes on volatility from the masters of the market

Fidelity International

In light of the notable market volatility this week, it is timely to review what the masters of the market have said on the subject. These quotes from some of the most successful investors illustrate how investing in stock markets can be a challenging yet rewarding venture, requiring strong research... Show More

3 reasons for caution with this bull market

Fidelity International

The post-financial crisis bear market bottomed out a long time ago, in March 2009; it is only natural that investors should be asking how much longer the bull can keep running. I think there are three main reasons to be concerned. Here we dig into these, before looking at reasons... Show More

Has it ever been so risky to be safe?

Fidelity International

In his recent investment letter, ‘There They Go Again…Again’, the legendary investor Howard Marks sounds a note of caution about the level of asset prices right across the spectrum, from equites to high yield notes and emerging market debt. He describes an environment where “pro-risk behaviour is commonplace.” Show More

A homegrown global success story

Fidelity International

James Abela, Portfolio Manager of our Future Leaders Fund, explains what he looks for in Australian companies looking to grow offshore. He then provides a specific example of a company he thinks possesses all the traits he is looking for. Show More

The best (and worst) outlook for equity markets

Fidelity International

Bull markets are born on pessimism and die on euphoria. By that yardstick, the current bull market - already one of the longest on record – may have further to go. Many investors remain cautious and uncommitted; this has been one of the most miserable and loathed bull markets in... Show More

The opportunity of the century?

Fidelity International

Gree Electric, Zhejiang Supor Cookware, Fuyao Glass. If you know much about any of these three companies, I take my hat off to you. Gree is the market leader in air conditioning in China. Zhejiang is the country’s largest manufacturer of pressure cookers, blenders and other small kitchen appliances. Fuyao... Show More

The Nasdaq: Will history repeat or will it rhyme?

Fidelity International

There aren’t many advantages to being the wrong side of 50. One very clear benefit for investors of a certain age, however, is the fact that, whatever the market turns up, you’ve already seen something similar. My two charts this week are a perfect visual representation of Mark Twain’s famous... Show More

Time to look further afield

Fidelity International

As we close out the first quarter of 2017, financial markets have once again shown their capacity to wrong-foot investors. During the first three months of the year, contrary to conventional wisdom, the top-performing stock markets have not been in the US, not even in a resurgent Europe, but in... Show More

The Recovery is real

Fidelity International

Evidence from Fidelity’s 2017 Analyst Survey suggests that the global reflation/recovery is in full swing. Demand, capex expectations, and consumer sentiment are picking up, while the first signs of inflation in prices and wages are beginning to show up. Fidelity’s Analyst Survey draws on the 17,000 meetings our analysts conduct... Show More

Joshua - many thanks for your comment. I would agree with you that Peter did focus a lot on earnings growth and as you accurately highlight Facebook is growing faster than Apple. However Peter was also very disciplined around the price paid VS value received and used to talk to us a lot about trying to find value where others were not looking - Chrysler's turnaround which he has also covered in his books, used to be one of his favourite examples. As regards fast growers Peter believed in looking for those which had the potential to 10 bag on him (to compensate for the risk that a number of them do flame out). Facebook is a fast grower (and as you would note we have been loyal investors since IPO and from the lows it is up nearly 7x). however for it to even 3x from here would make it one of the first trillion$ market cap stocks out there (and incidentally approximating to Australia's 2016 GDP of $1.27 trillion). The market share, revenues, earnings and cash flow all that would imply seem a bit far fetched based on what we know today espeically in light of a more unfavourable regulatory regime which I foresee. On Apple, as an aside, I find it interesting that recently a great value investor like Warren Buffet has also disclosed it as one of his top holdings. I hope the above helps in giving some context of my thoughts

On What Peter Lynch taught me about Facebook -