China is now the biggest elephant in the global room. We will have to get used to it. International financial news will not tell us how many cats did not get stuck up a tree this morning. Instead, they will report every crisis, real or imagined which occurs around the... Show More

“Fidelity Investments, which oversees the largest China funds outside of the mainland, is joining Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in saying that Chinese stocks are a buy following the worst selloff in two decades.” (Bloomberg) Our view? There have been some big short positions in China’s stock markets, including from some... Show More

News that discount fashion retailer Ross Stores has joined Wal-Mart, T.J.Maxx and Target in raising their starting wage to $9 suggests that companies are seeing tightness in the labour market. This is follows the decision this week that Los Angeles will be raising its minimum wage to one of the... Show More

China may still be listed as a developing market but it is progressing rapidly, benefiting from a well educated middleclass and also globalisation, which enabled it to become a top manufacturer for the world. Commentators point out that China’s rising wages are pricing it out of manufacturing within Asia. That... Show More

Bloomberg: “Although growth in output and unemployment slowed during the first quarter, the committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace,” the Fed said. The Fed repeated it will raise rates when it sees further labor-market improvement and is “reasonably confident”... Show More

If history is any guide oil prices could range in $40-100 band for a long time. We have long described the peak oil arguments in terms of rising cost of marginal production. If one looks at long-term charts of oil prices we can see that despite volatility and a number... Show More

Iron-ore remains in a consistent medium-term downtrend. One of the primary reasons we are having such difficulties with providing a reliable price for the commodity is because it is not freely traded. Following some consultation with Bloomberg I have updated the price once more and will monitor it daily to... Show More

The iron-ore oligarchy of Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have been boosting supply even as prices have been declining. You don't do that if you wish to sustain high prices. Rather they are attempting to drive high cost producers out of business in an effort to maintain market share... Show More

The sharp pullbacks currently underway among the major iron-ore miners tend to obscure the fact that the Continuous Commodity Index found support this week in the region of the psychological 500 area. Additional upside follow through next week would suggest at least a reversionary rally back up towards the MA... Show More

The Bank of Japan has little choice but to proceed with QE, in its efforts to reignite growth and inflation, now that it has embarked on the extraordinary monetary policy route. While QE has had mixed results in achieving economic growth it has been much more successful in inflating asset... Show More

There is clear evidence that the highly cyclical mining sector is about to turn upwards. We have seen it over and over. 1) As the global economy commences a recovery, miners are slow to increase supplies because metal prices are low. 2) Global GDP growth pushes up demand for metals... Show More

Fed will want to see robust inflation before acting. Consumers have been complaining about inflation for quite some time, not least because the price of anything normal people spend money on has increased. In such cases the hedonics employed by the Fed offer cold comfort. As inflation shows up in... Show More

Earlier this week JPMorgan Cazenove analyst pulled a u-turn on the mining sector going from underweight to overweight. What's our view? We have been looking for a recovery in the resources sector for the last few months not least because laggards often engage in a powerful catch-up play in the... Show More

There was nothing in Yellen's comments to worry the markets today. In fact, they were reassuring for investors. US short-term interest rates will probably not rise until the economy is clearly stronger and 10-year government bonds are closer to 3% than today's level of 2.587%. Yellen will know that smart... Show More

David Fuller on the Euro: Past Present and Future. If we recall forecasts and predictions on the euro from various economists and strategists - many of them were expecting the euro to collapse entirely, for some countries in the single currency to have dropped out, or for a break up.... Show More

Putin Says Sanctions Jeopardise U.S., EU Energy Deals. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that further economic sanctions over the Ukraine crisis may lead Russia to reconsider participation by U.S. and European Union companies in energy and other key industries. Sanctions between powerful countries are high-stakes poker with a considerable... Show More

2014 is a year for Wall Street's indices to tread water at best. The reasons are not complicated. The US stock market rose for five consecutive years and the biggest gain occurred in 2013, with the S&P 500 Index (weekly & daily) surging 30%. That is typical of late-in-the-cycle moves... Show More

Western governments and their populations would understandably like this uncomfortable problem with Vladimir Putin to go away. It will not, in all probably, particularly if the sanctions are insufficient and therefore ineffective. Putin will feel confident that he has won the last round. Tactically, he is now lowering tensions to... Show More

High-Frequency Front Running. Veteran subscribers are very familiar with the debate concerning high-frequency trading (HFT) because Fuller-Treacy Money has been posting articles on the subject and writing about it throughout the last five years, as the historic Archive will confirm. Michael Lewis and others who have expressed criticisms of HFT... Show More

China's policies are intertwined. Two clear results of the People's Congress have been a willingness to allow systemically unimportant companies declare bankruptcy and to allow the Yuan to weaken. In many respects these two policies are intertwined. If the administration is to cut off funding to failing entities it will... Show More