Guy Carson

We love to talk about property prices in this country. When they were going up, Saturday afternoon BBQs were filled with positive talk and confident predictions of a never-ending bull market. Now that prices have started to reverse, the conversation is less bullish and revolves around how far they will... Show More

Guy Carson

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio recently gave an interview where he said he believes that we are in around the 7th inning of the current economic cycle. To spell it out, baseball games have 9 innings and so this suggests he believes that we are closer to the end of the cycle... Show More

Guy Carson

Reporting season has come and gone and as always there were surprises. To us the major surprise was the continued march higher of stocks we considered to be significantly overvalued. Investors continue to pay up for growth in a manner akin to the late 1990s and in many cases we... Show More

Guy Carson

To potentially misquote Robert F. Kennedy, “Like it or not, we live in interesting times.” That certainly has been true in financial markets in recent months as volatility has returned. Fraudulent or misleading activity (or the discovery thereof) appears to be on the rise as well. Both domestically and internationally... Show More

Guy Carson

I have to be honest, when the royal commission into the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services sector was first announced I was skeptical. I thought that the commission would be akin to a “Dog and Pony show” with banking executives grilled for hours about already known scandals and they in... Show More

Guy Carson

To understand where we are heading it is always important to look back at where we have come from. With that in mind, the Australian economy continued its uninterrupted twenty six year run of economic growth in 2017 delivering 2.8% year on year GDP growth through the September Quarter. In... Show More

Guy Carson

Australia has just celebrated 26 years without a recession and the Government as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are cheering the ongoing growth. In fact, the common consensus amongst these authorities is that growth is set to rebound from its current 1.9% year on year rate and... Show More

Guy Carson

Every six months in Australia, reporting season comes around. It’s an important time for investors as it gives us a chance to see in detail how companies are traveling and, in some cases, what their outlook is for the year ahead. As a result, February and August become important times... Show More

Guy Carson

When evaluating a business, it is important to understand what drivers will have an impact on the profits and profitability. In the case of most businesses, currency will be a factor to a varying degree. Exporters will benefit when a currency falls, importers will benefit when it rises. Those companies... Show More

Guy Carson

Back in 2007, a US economist called Edward E. Leemer published a paper entitled “Housing IS the business cycle”. In this paper he studied the causes of every US recession since World War 2, of which there had been 10. What he discovered was that 8 out of the 10... Show More

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