Hedley Widdup

Geologist, mining investor, watchful commentator, bicycle collector and father of three.


Miners are Exploring again. It's 8 o'clock and Greed is Back

Hedley Widdup

Resources equities have outperformed the rest of the market by a wide margin in the time since January 2016, when the long bust ended. This period has been marked by increasing investor interest in miners, and consequent increase in liquidity - investor funds flowing toward the sector. Show More

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Pilbara Nuggets: Too early to Novo?

Hedley Widdup

There is little more exciting in mining than a discovery. “Discovery” companies (as opposed to “exploration” companies) are rare, the phase characterised by investors speculating on how big a find could be, as inevitably the market has to digest each new drill hole as it is delivered. In this time... Show More

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WA Gold Royalties – Really dumb idea

Hedley Widdup

...but that’s what we expect from politicians. Mineral royalties are a well-established mechanism to provide a risk-free financial reward to the ultimate owners of minerals – ie the nation or the state in which a mineral is produced. This is fair – minerals are non-replaceable and therefore compensation is warranted.... Show More

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Mining – Checking in on the BOOM

Hedley Widdup

On average, the market is always right. BUT, for miners, the height of booms and nadir of the bust is where the market overshoots driven by extremes of sentiment, and at these times the market for miners is neither rational nor efficient. IE – it is Wrong. The loftier the... Show More

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The three ’I’s that drive the gold price

Hedley Widdup

The fundamentals of gold remain strong; inflation should outpace interest rates and global debt remains high. I think gold will find a floor at some stage, and when it begins to move up again it could be quite aggressive. Key catalysts will be ‘the three I’s: Inflation, interest rates, and... Show More

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How do you value gold equities when they are doing this well?

Hedley Widdup

Between 2000 to 2014, ASX gold producers were collectively cash flow negative or neutral, in terms of operating and investing cash flows, and using annual financial numbers. In 2015 margins exploded due to both excellent cost discipline and metal price movement. So gold producers are suddenly achieving multi-cycle high cash... Show More

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Gold to stay strong thanks to negative real rates

Hedley Widdup

Gold has experienced the smallest supply growth of all the major metals over the last 15-20 years, by a significant amount. At the same time, there have emerged major new customers in China, India and the Middle East. Gold tends to do well in environments of low to negative real... Show More

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A new resources cycle has started

Hedley Widdup

I believe a new multi-year resource cycle has started, and that the evolution of this cycle has been remarkably rapid compared with other cycles. Investor sentiment towards miners switched in early 2016 from ‘off’ to ‘on’. This has happened at the turning point from bust to boom in every other... Show More

Mining - the liquidity tap is back on.

Hedley Widdup

Sentiment toward miners flipped in early 2016: having seen capitulation in 2015, from January this year investors have been moving back to mining, tempted by recovering metal prices (especially in gold), miners collective new regime of financial and cost discipline, and a lack of growth opportunities across the broader market.... Show More


Risk Money - Rotating back to Mining

Hedley Widdup

Performance of gold equities has been outstanding in 2016. Increasing liquidity supports this trend, the Mining IPO market which was closed for several years has now re-opened. There have already been more mining IPO’s in 2016 than 2015, and several prospective IPO’s have been announced to the market, so there... Show More

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Miners have turned in 2016, led by Gold Miners

Hedley Widdup

The financial year 2015/2016 was a tale of two halves: July to December 2015, miners were capitulating. January to June 2016, miners not only turned but put on a strong positive performance. This was led by gold equities, which were up 86.6% in the second half alone, and then there... Show More

The Mining Boom has Started

Hedley Widdup

2016 has seen sustained capital growth in mining equities, and as a result Resources have outperformed Industrials by a substantial amount since January. More significantly, junior miners, many non-producers, have been able to raise meaningful amounts of money over roughly the same period. The size and regularity of raisings for... Show More

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Miners at a turning point

Hedley Widdup

After five long years of share price weakness, the first quarter of 2016 has seen a reversal in investor sentiment towards miners – having only recently been regarded as “risky” and “irresponsible”, this perception has changed to “rational” and “cheap”. The switch has been marked by a short and aggressive... Show More


Resources Rally - What it tells us is important

Hedley Widdup

The rally in Resources stocks in the first three months of 2016 has prompted substantial debate, centered on "will the rally last". Given the rapidity of rerating enjoyed by many mining stocks, including large companies, it is almost certainly not a rally that will endure. However, it is evidence of... Show More

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Sad news for mining knockers: Yep, Mining Stocks have fallen - but in parallel with the rest of the market

Hedley Widdup

Mining stocks have put on poor (ahem, disastrous) absolute returns since 2011. In 2011 to 2014, these were against a strong broader market, but during 2015 miners have fallen alongside a weaker market. Show More

Mineral Exploration – when it is thought that counts

Hedley Widdup

Mineral Exploration is an essential part of the mining cycle. Nevertheless, in tough times (such as now), exploration budgets are the first to be cut, and so there is a healthy level of discussion permeating mining circles now on who is doing (or not doing) what. This is against a... Show More

Longform Minerals Exploration

Summer's first swallows - Lion Resources Clock ticks over to 4:30

Hedley Widdup

There is a growing evidence that the market for miners is beginning to thaw, equivalent perhaps to several swallow sightings - and a change of season for miners. Show More

Follow the Majors ?

Hedley Widdup

Whenever I bump into mining acquaintances at conferences, events, even in the street, the conversation usually starts with "how are you ?". I am getting tired of hearing "I'm good, market is still crap though...". I'm beginning to think people are just so used to saying this that it's become... Show More

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