Jeff Thomson

We are already in an earnings recession. Earnings estimates are under pressure from slower growth and margin pressures. This has driven the Alphinity Global Earnings Diffusion Ratio sharply lower over the last twelve months - with a move below zero showing downgrades now outnumber upgrades. Most impacted have been cyclical... Show More

Jeff Thomson

Target is experiencing strong earnings tailwinds that remain underappreciated by the market. The US consumer remains a bastion of strength. Unemployment is touching 50-year lows and new job creation remains strong, so it’s not surprising to see that consumers are feeling good and consumption is booming. Retail sales in July... Show More

Jeff Thomson

Spanish banks have until recently been an attractive way for investors to play regional economic recovery and rate normalisation. The real estate market in Spain is in recovery mode and prices remain significantly below pre-crisis peak levels (unlike many other countries, including Australia). Domestic Spanish banks generally remain highly leveraged... Show More

Jeff Thomson

U.S. banks have recently rallied strongly and it’s worth considering if European banks can follow given relatively attractive valuations and an improving outlook. In this context I recently travelled to meet the senior management from all the major listed banks in the Nordic region. The trip increased my conviction around... Show More

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