Yes James the U.S consumer is also very important but feel they are still quite reserved, Christmas will be a good measure of where they are at for sure. Whilst last weeks GDP and employment reports are positive the overall employment trend is still not strong enough. Can the U.S sustain jobs growth like this for the next few months and into next year? I don't think so
No great surprise in regards to NPC sticking to 2013 GDP and CPI forecasts. Risks to growth still to the downside though in 2014 - their 2013 call may have just been too early. Ministry of Finance hold press conference tomorrow morning expected to talk about fiscal issues. So more on guidance expected.
Thanks James and happy new year to you too. It is a rather crude way to estimate the completion of QE i.e a steady 10-15 bil every month. I expect we will get updates from the Fed throughout the year and a lot will depend on Treasuries and pricing around rate hikes. Fed may drag QE out further depending on markets behaviour.
Agree Jay - Fed taper more likely to be a softly softly approach and unless we get firm guidance or a timeline (which I don't think we will next week) then USD could continue to slide against EUR, GBP and to a lesser extend the Aussie dollar
Thanks Evan, Yes timing is difficult to pin down but trend is there already and likely to continue. Was interesting to see AUD initially rise when the news broke. This is because you would initially expect USD weakness (selling USD buying CNY) but over the longer term would be AUD negative for reasons I touched on in that piece.