Someone (maybe it was Albert Einstein) once opined that: “Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results” Show More
In attempting to forecast the short term outlook for Australian equities in 2019, I do so with some trepidation. I have always suggested, and I think it has now become a broadly accepted principle, that it is far easier to forecast the performance of asset markets over a longer period... Show More
This week I celebrate my 60th birthday. Therefore, I feel intitled to take liberties and reflect on some history, as well as my thoughts on the Wentworth bi-election. I hope that you can accept my indulgence. Show More
Over recent weeks, we have highlighted that there are two main international macro events that will need to be closely monitored over the coming months. Each could impact the performance of investment markets in 2019. Show More
Back in August 2015, we wrote an incisive article noting that ANZ’s $2.5 billion placement raising had fallen short. Whilst there was no public confirmation at the time by either ANZ or the underwriters, it was our experience in the market that led us to deduce that the investment banks... Show More
Thank you to everybody for your comments. Re Andrews questions my views are this: 1. The developed world has entered - so long as current Monetary Policies endure - a Japanese type cycle of long meandering growth punctuated by mild downturns. 2. The forgiveness of government debt will occur via the extension of the maturity profile of the bonds held by Central Banks. 3. The creation of an inflationary cycle could really only emanate from China given that it has substantially contributed to the deflation cycle that we are in - i.e. through trade replacement of developed world manufacturing bases. The world needs a new coordinated monetary policy to reverse/replace the coordinated monetary policy that has been adopted since the GFC. As for Australia - we are stuck in the cross currents! Regards John Abernethy
Thank you to everybody who have written following my article and thank you Livewire for publishing it. I note some of the comments question my view of the affect on the vote in Wentworth of Dr Phelps franking and superannuation policy. That's interesting and of course it is all conjecture. However, the fact remains that 11% of the vote shifted from the left to the middle in a bi-election dominated by a anti government vote. So these votes either shifted due to some policy announcements or as some replies noted - the electorate is simply protesting against the major political parties. It seems that a whole range of issues had an affect.