John Kimber

Over 30 years in Australia, South Africa, London and the United States John Kimber has worked in investment research, advisory, and corporate finance at Prudential Securities, BT Alex Brown and Ord Minnett. He completed his series seven...

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US small caps due for a catch up

John Kimber

Just in case the doomsayers about the current strong US economy and its durability, have got it wrong, and the current US expansion proves more durable than they expect, we have looked at Small Cap Value Stocks, which have lagged well behind Large Cap Growth. Show More

The Equities Drought in the USA

John Kimber

Low interest rates, growing earnings confidence, deconstruction of the nanny state, tax cuts, broad based gains in 7 out of 11 industry sectors and low inflation are all contributing, but the commentary has missed the most important contributor to another new high for the Dow. Show More

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The shrinking US stockmarket and private equity

John Kimber

The number of available equity investments in the USA continues to fall while valuations continue to soar. Issued shares continue to shrink as mergers, buybacks consolidations, declining IPOs and ETFs squeeze out both institutional and private investors. Measured by the broad market indexes the value of US publicly traded equity... Show More

dow jones state street TPG Carlyle Blackstone Banks LIC

A new solution for doctors and painkillers

John Kimber

The degradation of addiction is only matched by the willing acceptance by the community of drugs of addiction the worst offenders being opioids which are regularly prescribed for chronic pain and which often lead on to death. Show More

US Managers win in small caps

John Kimber

We follow US small and micro caps and the managers who own them. We highlight an Indian film distributor EROS which ticks the boxes in the investment process followed by small cap growth managers. Show More

dow jones small caps

BioTech Deals Coming Soon

John Kimber

The annual Bio Technology conference in San Diego, which we attended, ended with many smiles and a surge in Biotech / medical share prices in the US and on the ASX following a Kaiser report indicating that there would be no price clampdown and that regulation will continue to be... Show More

Paradigm Suda Regeneus CSL

Amazon's Opportunities

John Kimber

Amazon’s relentless focus on price, convenience and customers has created structural problems for the Amazon model. A raft of specialty retailers whose share prices are rising have recognized the opportunities created by the Amazon model. Show More

Amazon and WholeFoods

John Kimber

I cannot be the only observer who sees a peculiar facial likeness between Jeff Bezos the CEO of Amazon and Roger Corbett formerly of Woolworths. Show More

High yield ... and growing

John Kimber

The universe of US listed Business Development Companies (BDC's) are debt and equity investors in mid and small sized listed and unlisted ventures. They reside in a space occupied in Australia by the banks, unlisted private equity groups, funds and LICs. Recent names familiar in Australia are Carlyle Group, TPG... Show More

TPG Carlyle Blackstone Banks LIC

Airlines, injuries and oil

John Kimber

The passenger injured when dragged from a United Airlines flight last week is now preparing to sue for millions of dollars. His misfortune and subsequent outraged publicity has cost the US airline industry a lot more in terms of market capitalization. Show More

qantas ASX:QAN

The strategy most likely to perform in this market

John Kimber

Funds management should look a lot different at the end of 2017. Show More

strategy model portfolio Longform investing strategy

Infrastructure: Through the eye of a needle

John Kimber

Infrastructure is not always infrastructure investment and those hunting for infrastructure opportunities for investment should not judge the book by the cover. Show More

ASX:TCL Longform

Incomparable Brambles

John Kimber

At Independent Research we look for a comparative advantage in similar securities in different markets.  The vast majority of the Brambles logistics business is outside Australia yet rarely is there an attempt to find peer group valuation outside Australia. US markets have been led by transports and industrials, a bullish... Show More

Longform

Boral and its peers in the US

John Kimber

At Independent Research we look for situations where there is a comparative advantage which often occurs in similar securities in different markets. Show More

ASX:BLD Longform

Home Bias in securities markets

John Kimber

I moved to the United States in 2012 and did my US securities exams (again) before spending several years testing various research and other data bases to arrive at tested conclusions about suitable strategies for Australian investors in offshore markets and US investors in the Australian market. The question I... Show More

ASX:BHP ASX:BSL ASX:MYR ASX:WHC ASX:WOR Longform

Catriona Sensata is a great story but why is there such a large short position in the stock? Looks like about 15 days to me

On Why investors should be going global -

And don't forget that it is not just commentary on social media and the fake news sites. The goods sold on many internet ecommerce retail sites, including the biggest, are if not fake, then duplicated and corrupted. Eventually consumers will choose between convenience and price and actually getting what they ordered.

On Digital platforms confront fake news -

I am pretty sure that the US fund manager thought I was lying when I explained that Australian fully franked dividends are essentially free of tax for Australians and free of withholding tax for foreign investors. Advocates of no franking would be right at home in the US where corporate taxable income drives buy backs, massive takeovers, huge salaries, and tax inversions in Ireland and other low tax jurisdictions. The only US investment that comes close to a fully franked dividend is a tax free municipal bond. Unlike Australian fund managers who receive the cash benefits of franking there is much less choice in the USA about how corporate profits are allocated. If you want unfranked, visit the USA.

On The curse of dividend imputation -

Volatility and political uncertainty today has concealed the Dow Transport Index which last week broke to the upside while the rest of the market was going down. The Transport Index is one of the most reliable leading indicators of the Dow Jones index. Unfortunately, political volatility will continue to rule until next Monday. The Transport Index needs to hold its gain for another week when the talking heads will run out of steam.

On Back in black -

FACEBOOK, AMAZON, NETFLIX, GOOGLE the four FANG stocks are all under pressure including NETFLIX. But they are not the only media stocks. Time Warner is trading at 20 per cent discount to the AT and T offer which will not be approved by a Clinton Administration unless Bill and the Democrats can find a way to make money out of the deal in which case there is $18 dollars a share arbitrage profit for $9 dollars downside to where Time Warner was trading before the offer. But what about deals elsewhere? T Mobile, Disney, Viacom, CBS, Comcast and Verizon ( not Fox with the Murdoch moat). The most possible deal is CBS and Viacom. Mario Gabelli owns both stocks. The struggling Viacom could be the acquirer and CBS gets a premium. Here is the scorecard for the last 12 months: Sprint up 40 pct T Mobile up 29 pct CBS up 20 pct At and T up 12 pct Netflix up 10 pct Verizon up 4 pct Comcast up 2 pct Disney down 18 pct Viacom down 21 pct Disney has great entertainment and needs the widespread distribution like Netflix. For value investors Disney satisfies all of Buffett's investment criteria except perhaps for EPS growth over five years which has been about 20 pct.

On Why Netflix is in trouble -

SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE US and Trump is closing the gap fast. Not surprising that the SPX is down nine days in a row.. Wall Street wants Clinton in the White House and the Republicans in the House, which tonight is looking less likely. What will happen to the markets? A daily losing streak of 9 days is very unusual and created a potential for a big bounce. The SPX reached its 200 day moving average on Friday which is the usual short term bottom. The Dow Transport Index, which leads the SPX, has been consolidating, not falling supporting the view that short term we are down as far as we can go. It is certain that the accusations of election fraud will continue , and the result will be contested, leading to legal challenges, and a wide range of trading... as much as 400 points on election day and maybe more over the week.

On US Election: On a Knife's Edge -

Amazon needs to solve its own unreported problems which are ignored by commentators who would prefer to create fear than magnify the probable derailing of the Amazon model. First, Amazon is focused on its customers not its suppliers. It is loaded with counterfeit products which Amazon will refund if discovered but will not do anything when a supplier complains about its products being ripped off. Just ask Birkenstock which was forced to remove its brand from Amazon as result of counterfeiting that Amazon will not control.Birkenstock is not the only supplier to have confronted the Amazon model and decided not to list on Amazon. Secondly, any supplier to Amazon will discover that they will lose control of their brand, their pricing and their good will. Amazon has complete control and is well known for capriciously removing or moving products in its website. I recommend anyone contemplating supplying to or buying from Amazon take a look at its complaints pages. Thirdly, the anonymous Amazon employee who is planning on decimating the Australian retail industry needs to first explain how much Amazon will charge suppliers for the privilege of listing in Amazon ( its about 40 per cent to Amazon) which is likely to be far more than the margin available at local retailers where you will Not be forced to compete with counterfeit products. Fourthly, Amazon competes actively with its own suppliers. They know exactly how much is being sold and have no hesitation in creating a product that copies an existing successful brand which is then produced for Amazon in China. Australian companies need to protect and promote Australian brands. Many have looked at using Amazon and in spite of its obvious size and presence have decided not to use Amazon. Australian suppliers are far better off promoting their own websites and logistics where they can retain their goodwill and avoid the costs uncertainty and complexity of Amazon. Good luck to once only Australian consumers who may or may not get what they want from Amazon. Suppliers need to become very sceptical.

On Amazon: “We are going to destroy the retail environment in Australia” -