John Robertson

Slumping world trade growth is the latest reason for lowering global growth forecasts. As it releases its twice yearly World Economic Outlook on Tuesday the International Monetary Fund will be joining a succession of international economic organisations warning of the consequences of a decline in global trade growth. The World... Show More

John Robertson

Azure Minerals has reported a 67.1 meter thick interval of mineralised material at its Loma Bonita prospect in Sonora State in Mexico. The discovery includes a 25.9 meter thick zone from surface grading 1.31 g/t Au and 17 g/t Ag and a 25.9 meter interval from 36.6 meters grading 2.4... Show More

John Robertson

Twenty mining companies have just completed a two day investor roadshow in Sydney and Melbourne. Most have not yet commenced production or are at a very early stage in building output. How to choose from a presentation alone? Four criteria might offer a useful initial filter: a structured presentation built... Show More

John Robertson

UK-based industry publication Mining Journal has questioned the price assumptions underpinning the recently released Pilgangoora lithium project definitive feasibility study from Pilbara Minerals. The Journal has observed that “there is very little sound analysis present” to justify the prices assumed for the 36 years of the project. While the Mining... Show More

John Robertson

According to The Australian newspaper, Orocobre chief executive Richard Seville has described scepticism around lithium as “overblown”. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/orocobres-seville-expects-ongoing-demand-for-lithium/news-story/1344f63141c921a2b60e5f0a334bdd77 The newspaper report refers to Orocobre’s lower share price being “due to growing concerns that new and expanded sources of lithium supply could swamp the global market”. The share price has declined... Show More

John Robertson

Mining industry profits may have started to stabilise during the first half of 2016 with two consecutive quarterly rises, albeit only modest, in seasonally adjusted pre-tax profits in the March and June quarters of 2016, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, after a dramatic cyclical decline over the prior... Show More

John Robertson

No track record but priced for success. That is the Pilbara Minerals story. Despite what they say, investors continue to show a preference for ‘trend’ over ‘team’ in making investment choices. The Pilbara Minerals definitive feasibility study released in the past week puts a A$709 million value on the Pilgangoora... Show More

John Robertson

Australia’s corporate profit share has reverted to the upper end of a range which had prevailed for five decades prior to 2007 during which time it had been an especially compelling guidepost for medium term investors. The blue line in the chart showing private non-financial corporate operating surplus as a... Show More

John Robertson

Thundelarra has reported high grade intersections of unweathered gold-bearing quartz-carbonate vein material at its Garden Gully prospect. Results include 7 metres at 21 g/t Au from 11 metres downhole, 2 metres at 8 g/t Au from 49 metres and 12 metres at 4 g/t Au from 96 metres. The proximity... Show More

I usually favour the longest possible historical series so sympathise with your 20th century perspective. The chart which shows an average ratio of 54 is 'confined' to 35 years primarily because, earlier than that, governments had prevented the gold price from fluctuating while the silver price was freer to move.

On More to Go on Silver Adjustment -

Theoretically, a handful of superannuation funds will eventually own all the stock in the ASX 200 at current rates of growth. The Australian superannuation arrangements are structurally unsound. The upshot is ASX 200 stocks ending up in an asset bubble or Australia's household savings being forced offshore. Neither is without its policy problems.

On Jo Townsend, the CIO of REST Super, a $28billion superannuation fund, says they have sent the majority of new funds allocations offshore -

Company management pitched itself as having a superior skill base and in doing so created expectations of near perfection. The Vietnam drill results were not bad. They were not perfect. A more strongly capitalised company could brush it off and keep going. Neon needed a perfect outcome to succeed. Moral: the chance of a company outperforming if it has already produced returns among the top 3-5% in the sector is low.

On Neon Energy has abandoned a carefully crafted and hitherto well supported strategy in favour of a big bet on deep water drilling -

The official statistics do not get revised like the HSBC ones. In this instance, I am prepared to accept that the official numbers are better quality than the bank numbers because the latter are designed for speed (and profile for the bank). Chinese new year, weather, smog are all influnces in the short term but take a step back and the numbers have been consistently showing very little postive momentum. You get the same message from whichever angle the data are viewed.

On The slide in Chinese manufacturing momentum continues -

I have not read these studies but the conclusion referred to would be consistent with comments by the Fed chairman that consideration would be given to the unusually and persistently low participation rate in framing any future unemployment target. See my comment and chart at http://www.eimcapital.com.au/portfoliodirect/daily_views0913.htm for 9 September on the employment-population ratio.

On According to Goldman's top economist, Joe Hatzius, two key economists at the Fed have published research indicating the FOMC will lower the level at which it... -