great read - really enjoyed this piece

On Myer: Winter is coming - February 27, 2018 10:16pm

nice one Patrick - enjoyed this wire

On What year is it again? - October 27, 2017 3:41am

Good article Chris - though i personally think REITS are a bit flaky on the half back line........history says they don't stand up to finals pressure - i'd swap them for precious metals - which not only tend to hold up when the going gets tough, but can actually pop up with a few goals against the tide (disclosure: long gold, and a massive Adelaide Crows and Andrew Mcleod fan)!

On Who's in YOUR portfolio backline this Grand Final? - September 27, 2017 12:05am

hi Patrick - thanks for the comment. There is no doubt the potential for countries in Africa (and other parts of the world for that matter) to increase their gold production. I wouldn't worry too much about the potential impact on prices though, as that additional production will do little to increase total gold supplies, nor the annual rate of increase in total gold supply. Have a quick look at this article i wrote for the Gold Industry Group a year or so ago on this subject, and look forward to any feedback you have. Cheers http://www.goldindustrygroup.com.au/news/2016/7/7/gold-investor-series-stock-to-flow-why-gold-is-not-a-commodity

On Gold on the Ropes as Markets Hit All Time Highs - September 22, 2017 2:56am

Excellent piece Jonathan.......

On Would You Lend to Tajikistan? - September 21, 2017 4:05am

Interesting and thought provoking read Chris......i'd think a lots of the newer entrants to the super space could do this easier as they won't have the legacy tech issues.....definitely something to watch

On Renters and Owners Need Different Super Solutions - August 18, 2017 5:55am

Great read Andrew!

On The curious case of Fed normalisation - June 20, 2017 11:54pm

Amazing read Philip.

On Why we're selling all shares and handing cash back to investors - May 29, 2017 5:18am

Really enjoyed this piece Daryl, and agree with the view you've articulated re the change of focus for the government, and the profound shift that represents from the 'push prices higher' approach of the last 30 plus years.........

On Government's profound shift in thinking on property - May 24, 2017 5:43am

great read!

On ETF's: The most crowded trade in history - May 8, 2017 11:24pm

great report, the chart above is frightening IMO.....

On 4 eye-opening charts from the RBA - May 8, 2017 1:11am

excellent read...love the conclusion too

On 5 measures of market valuations, and what they're saying today - March 15, 2017 10:48pm

great read........interesting implications for gold too, which has struggled over the last few weeks

On The single most important chart we are watching - March 12, 2017 9:48pm

Was at the conference too.....very much enjoyed it.....definitely agree with the CE forecast on Aussie rates, though I'm not as bullish as they are re the United States!

On The Outlook for Global Growth - March 8, 2017 10:02pm

Brilliant Alex - couldn't agree more........the pessimism on display by some commentators regarding this dynamic (and supposed requirements for UBIs etc) is not at all supported by historical observation

On Why the technology eats jobs argument is wrong - March 8, 2017 9:59pm

Great note Patrick - one of the obvious questions that springs to mind in light of the potential with driverless cars is the merit of huge infrastructure spending plans (particularly for roads)! Big question on whether we really need to spend money in that area given the potential productivity/efficiency dividend this technology will bring!

On What’s on Hamish Douglass’ mind? - March 2, 2017 1:24am

"rain gold" is an interesting turn of phrase! Good summation Patrick!

On Highlights from Buffett’s 2017 letter - February 27, 2017 1:48am

I'm obviously in the medium-long term bull camp Rudi, but thats an excellent piece covering the major headwinds! Enjoyed the read!

On Fool's Gold? Know Thy Enemy! - November 24, 2016 10:38pm

Spot on Chad re the comment about Demoncrats losing more than Trump winning - the Swing States in the Mid-West in particular were only +1m for Trump v McCain in 08, Clinton was -2m v Obama....Good Read!

On This is Big(ly): Our Trump musings (part I) - November 15, 2016 2:56am

Terrific piece Jonathan - could not agree more with the comments re disinflation!

On Central Bank Independence is No Cover for Central Bank Incompetence - October 27, 2016 2:13am

Excellent read Chad.......

On Standing on the outside looking in: "Angry Avocados" & Australian housing - October 19, 2016 11:06pm

excellent article Stuart

On Can the banks maintain their dividend payout ratios? - October 6, 2016 10:10pm

Superb read.........interesting to consider gold performance in light of above chart considering the strong run since 2000 and fact its typically considered an inflation asset

On How central bank policies hurt savers and investors - September 12, 2016 5:58am

Good wire Alex - that Real Assets v Financial Assets is a standout chart.....

On $13.4 trillion in negative yield bonds and rising... - August 26, 2016 4:22am

Think you could be right Angela - market feels like it wants to push lower temporarily here - a 'hawkish' Yellen (a relative term if ever there was one) at Jackson Hole could be the catalyst

On Technicals - Gold - potential for a sell signal to be generated - August 25, 2016 5:47am

No disagreements from me Patrick regarding the positive steps and increases in racial/gender equality over the past 40 odd years.

On Anniversaries, Smart Money, and Regulation: It’s all about Trust! - August 21, 2016 11:38pm

Great wire and chart guys!

On The demographic shock sweeping the globe - August 15, 2016 3:29am

Great read Steve - couldn't agree more re the challenges ahead for the sector

On Fuzzy Future for Fundies - July 19, 2016 10:22pm

I agree with Patrick's sentiments - though the alternative way of looking at this is that Financial Markets are entirely unconfused. Market participants now fully expect further Monetary Policy Extremism - in that environment - it is somewhat logical to trade dollars/euros/yen/pound for anything more tangible - be that ownership of productive businesses or gold.........whilst it is true that there is minimal CPI in the developed world right now, why wait for the money to die - better to trade it for something more tangible now

On Financial markets in a state of confusion - July 12, 2016 1:44am

Great post Patrick (and comment Steve). The Dalbar reports are a must read. Thats the thing about volatility - investors should ride it out (or use it as a gift at times) but they just don't - locking in losses at worst possible times/overpaying etc.......if markets were easy though i guess it would be boring

On Buy high, sell low? - July 7, 2016 1:14am

I agree wholeheartedly John re the comment regarding the mistake of treating gold like any other commodity. In reality, the supply of gold is largely fixed (grows slowly over time), - but i think the WGC point re ETF demand was/is a valid expression of Western investor interest. Of course the ETF gold was purchased from other investors (predominantly unallocated gold held at HBSC/JP which are the major custodians outside of the BoE) so you could argue its a "rotation" of demand from one investor type to another. Enjoyed your article

On Too Many Gaps in Unreliable Gold Council Market Data - May 19, 2016 12:04am

Great read

On McKinsey: The golden era has ended - April 29, 2016 3:15am

super read - love the comments about questionable logic of buying a market portfolio of debt securities.

On Bonds – Defensive but with flexibility - April 14, 2016 12:10am

You bet James - question is how to do we get out of this place!

On Word Counts and Dot Plots: Why Economics Truly is the dismal science! - April 3, 2016 10:08pm

couldn't agree more - i'd add democracy (or actually just BIG GOVERNMENT) to the list, though I'm not sure disruptive technology is anything other than a positive

On Headwinds: Debt, demography & disruptions - February 3, 2016 9:31pm

not surprised by these findings for broader commodities - the returns on gold in rising rate environments is something we've long spoken to clients about. This, coupled with USD returns post rate hikes, and the extreme bearishness toward metals right now can't help but whet a contrarians appetite.

On What happens to commodities when rates go up? - December 1, 2015 10:17pm

i'd add a 'mistake' often made at this age too is mistaking fortune for brains in the investment market. Its almost better if your first couple of share investments lose money, to teach you humility. Not a hard rule obviously - but it can sometimes be a bad thing if you are a 20 year old who "invests" in some dot.com or junior miner which 5 bags - youngster then thinks they're Warren Buffett

On 8 biggest money mistakes to avoid when you’re young - November 23, 2015 12:44am

outstanding read

On Australian blue-chips? Absolute shockers... - November 1, 2015 10:58pm

great point Marcus

On FEAR MONGERING - October 6, 2015 10:18pm

That yield convergence chart is quite something. Amazing stuff - and a major unintended consequence of ZIRP

On Yield Compression: A dynamic not seen in over two decades - August 28, 2015 1:12am

Love it. The Gold Market (on both the bullish and bearish) side is alive with this kind of jazz too.

On How to kick your addiction to financial porn - August 28, 2015 1:11am

couldn't agree more- still see rates falling to at least 1.50%. Think we're getting a temporary post budget bounce in some economic data. Will prove transitory

On Shane Oliver: Five reasons why the RBA will probably cut interest rates again - August 5, 2015 1:14am

Hi Peter - no question that there'd be a few punters caught up in the latest volatility in China that would have had to liquidate gold holdings in order to raise much needed cash. That's very different from China as a sovereign itself, who've made it fairly clear that higher levels of gold holdings are needed to balance out their foreign exchange reserves etc....

On China Gold? - July 12, 2015 10:27pm

No arguments from me on the different mechanics at play mate - agree totally

On Its Super watching Buffett - July 2, 2015 9:53pm

One could argue that the latest shenanigans in Greece suggest loans to governments are not in fact free of credit risk.....nearly risk free is not the same as risk free

On Its Super watching Buffett - July 2, 2015 6:33am

that interest payment as % of disposable income is a national disgrace considering where rates are - Great chart

On Murray: Don't expect the economy to bail you out - July 1, 2015 2:52am

nice piece Daniel

On Global inflation's uptick. Buying Gold and Platinum. - June 25, 2015 11:43pm

Terrific initiative Livewire - to bring together insights from three leading fund managers like this - and their assessment of what value is out there, their relative cash weightings, where valuations are and their thoughts on monetary policy both in Australia and overseas was fantastic. Top event - please run one again soon

On “Livewire Live” Broadcast: Anton Tagliaferro, Geoff Wilson and Ben Griffiths talk strategy and stocks - June 18, 2015 12:44am

definitely just a trickle at this point Rudi - but we've noticed a pick up in SMSF's and retirees buying gold since the RBA cut rates in Feb

On Cash Not Moving From Sidelines In Australia - June 5, 2015 2:19am

have a feeling gold would hold up pretty well if Vanguard had included it in this chart - separate from other commodities

On Which are the riskiest assets during a broad market sell-off? - June 5, 2015 1:54am

Justin great read - that chart from Minack is one of the best i've seen on the Aussie consumer!

On 5 industries at risk of disruption - June 1, 2015 8:16am

Cracking article - Chart 2 in that report is a ripper!

On The CAPEX dollars are probably in your super fund - May 29, 2015 1:36am

Excellent interview gentleman

On A time to be patient - April 30, 2015 12:03am

No question weather affected the results, but it still fell way below expectations - which should have 'priced in' the weather to a larger degree. It's consistent with the broader rolling over of US Macro data too.

On Ignore the US GDP numbers - April 29, 2015 10:47pm

Roger agree 100% at the smaller end. Not hard to see why ETFs popular though when so many large cap managers can't beat indexes regularly. On the Buffett question - A Wolf advising others to remain Sheep should always be looked at with a skeptical eye.

On Roger Montgomery: Tees off on index funds - April 23, 2015 1:55am

does anyone have a stat on how much of the Australian Superannuation pie is in JGBs? Im hoping the funds are heavily underweight

On Goldman Sachs chart: Central Bank balance sheets as a percentage of GDP - April 17, 2015 12:20am

excellent post

On What Warren Buffet said 16 years ago stills hold true today - April 15, 2015 12:08am

spot on!!

On Two Domestic themes continue to play out: TINA meets FOMO - June 11, 2014 2:20am

Love the point about private buyers wanting guaranteed returns - which are ultimately borne by the taxpayer. The one thing most people overlook in this whole 'we'll sell infrastructure' debate.

On Australian Governments should stop selling assets and borrow more at cheap rates on offer to fund vital infrastructure - June 12, 2014 10:25pm

Great piece Charlie

On Deliberate or accidental asset price bubbles willfully caused by the artificially low interest rate regimes imposed by global Central Banks - July 1, 2014 4:05am

Agree James - no arguments there. Though the 'bear' camp got another win with the latest Gallup data re personal spending. Link here http://www.gallup.com/poll/172088/consumer-spending-dips-june.aspx

On In explaining one of the major strengths of the Red Army, Joseph Stalin once stated that Quantity has a Quality all its own It's a quote that came to mind in... - July 7, 2014 9:23pm

Hi James - yes - definitely growing momentum - in part due to lack of transparency around fix, Barclays fine, and also the fact silver fix is ending (new process expected to be announced as soon as next week i think). Gold is highly liquid with tens of billions trading per day - pricing it is no problem at all - be interesting to see what market ends up agreeing on as a replacement - but anything to improve transparency is a good thing for the gold market (or any market for that matter). cheers

On If we have an 'average' third quarter for gold, we should expect to see a gold price of around USD $1400oz by the time we get to October. Looking at Q3 data... - July 10, 2014 2:23am

Hey Rod - yep agree - i think one last wash out can't be ruled out - especially now Goldman just got more bullish/less bearish :-) Another $100 move to the south would decimate investor sentiment and set up next cyclical up leg. But only time will tell. Massive weak ahead starting with Durables

On Gold prices have eased below USD $1300oz this week, despite the tensions in Ukraine, Iraq, Syria and Gaza. Going into next week its hard to be anything more... - July 25, 2014 2:55am

Too easy James - glad you liked

On The team at Visual Capitalist produced a corker last week highlighting the trends to watch in the Gold Market over the next few years The report focused on... - July 28, 2014 10:10pm

Magic report Dean - and thanks for the share James. Love anything India related.

On 15 insights from India - the time is now - July 30, 2014 9:32pm

This is true - though it would be worth pointing out that our massive homes are filled with spare bedrooms - probably 6 million in total across the nation. In any other industry we'd refer to that as excess capacity, and makes one wonder about the so-called 'housing shortage'. But great graph on the square metres.

On Australia is not facing a housing bubble - in fact, when it comes to prices we get more than what we're paying for, says BT Financial Group's Chief Economist... - August 5, 2014 12:53am

Hi Rudy - agreeing, disagreeing, and even fiercely disagreeing is part of what makes Livewire such a great platform for sharing views and debating. The major point i was expressing in this post was the fallacy that rising rates = falling gold prices.The late 70's proves that - as nominal rates more than doubled, and gold prices flew as well (which even you acknowledge). Happy to debate all pros and con's on gold investing, but not actually sure what point of mine you disagree with? Am i missing something?

On If its obvious, its obviously wrong, is one of my favourite sayings when it comes to markets. On that score, perhaps nothing is more pertinent to the gold... - August 6, 2014 3:23am

No harm taken at all taken Rudi - thanks for clarifying - and agree 100% re there being too many simplistic arguments about gold (as well as a few other asset classes too). Cheers mate

On If its obvious, its obviously wrong, is one of my favourite sayings when it comes to markets. On that score, perhaps nothing is more pertinent to the gold... - August 6, 2014 4:46am

Really good read - interestingly, in the earlier periods highlighted by Fidelity (1973-74 and 1978-80), gold outperformed even commodities by a significant amount (129% vs 50%, and 167% vs 4%), though in the 3 periods after - its been more of a wash. Good to see these guys picking up a broader basket of commodities though either way.

On How to protect yourself from stagflation by Daniel Weston, CIO, Aimed Capital - August 12, 2014 11:47pm

great share James - and some excellent charts in there

On The latest jobless figures were a major talking point last week, this article from the FT puts them in context of a wider range of data points - August 12, 2014 11:44pm

Good interview guys - Steve 100% with you - i think we could see official rates with a 1 in front of them by next year worst case scenario - and 2% highly likely. Where does it end though

On A weight of cash on the sidelines is limiting the downside on any pullbacks and interest rates are likely to head lower - August 15, 2014 1:49am

Perhaps the better way to describe it would be turnover John? As in - there was 16% less gold traded, as less owners were willing to sell at the price buyers were willing to pay this year compared to last. Important to remember last year was a record for physical (bars/coins) and jewellery - so not surprised with these numbers (am encouraged by them actually). Also obvious turnover/demand not correlated to price short-term. 2013 price movement v turnover/demand conclusive evidence of that

On The World Gold Council has said today that total gold demand in Q2 stood at 964 tonnes, 16% lower than the same period last year as consumers and investors... - August 15, 2014 1:52am

Great chart Gavin - and Rod - 100%. Support #heartofgold too

On Interesting chart below that supports the notion of gold flowing towards the emerging economic powers in Asia, most of it from the West - August 15, 2014 9:34am

Great chart and article Daniel.

On The pensioners of Australia can not afford another big stock market crash - August 19, 2014 2:43am

This is a really good piece guys - but surely it should not be a political/central bank issue as to whether companies invest/buy-back stock/pay out higher dividends. This should be something boards are more than capable of working out for themselves. As for the AUD - yes - pushing it lower will help some industries, but will hurt others - and import higher inflation. Furthermore - what can the RBA do other than slash rates further - with deleterious effects for savers - who will then in turn be forced to buy more stock - which they'll only do if the boards pay out higher dividends. Catch 22 no?

On A debate has begun over whether Australian companies are paying out too much cash in dividends to shareholders, and not enough capital is being reinvested - August 28, 2014 7:40am

Great piece guys

On Our investment analyst Tom Richardson discusses our view on gold and a standout stock from reporting season - September 15, 2014 8:18am

Great peace Pete - particularly enjoyed 2 and 4 - spot on!

On 4 major Aussie housing market trends until 2020... - October 27, 2014 1:27am

good poll David - i suggest there'll be a few people calling the Fed's bluff from this site.

On When do you think the US FOMC will begin to tighten monetary policy - October 27, 2014 1:24am

Its a cracking piece but i don't know about you David - i don't think it's capitalisms fault at all when its politicians/central bankers who are responsible for the ills and artificial markets Chris rightly criticises.

On Why capitalism is not doing its job: AFR (@cjoye) The prices we see today for equities, bonds and housing are not remotely near their true market clearing... - November 5, 2014 12:11am

Not surprising - though must admit i wasn't expecting the sell off to be quite so violent this morning (especially silver which just got 'oiled') Could be a counting crows (long december) for precious metal bulls if this morning sets the tone!

On Swiss vote no to gold referendum - December 1, 2014 12:04am

couldn't agree more with Charlie there. if the RBA don't cut they're going to have to most dovish of language. All the risk is to the upside (unless they cut 50bps of course), which they won't

On Implications of no rate cute.. - February 2, 2015 3:38am

Great article Tim and exactly why i buy gold - preferred form of cash! downside is volatility, upside is duration. Buffett is right about the no expiration date on cash but thats meaningless when its devalued perpetually

On Just because cash is not 'high returning' does not mean it is not valuable.. - February 18, 2015 10:25pm

Yep - it's precisely the kind of thing that in a rearview mirror people will say 'how didn't we notice that' - good call James

On The race to $100 on the ASX.. - February 18, 2015 10:23pm

nice wire James

On Dividends don't grow on trees - February 23, 2015 11:44pm

it's a good point John - perhaps they should define it as turnover or some such thing - I'm quite certain people weren't throwing it away :-) The 1.76% point is highly relevant too. Overall gold supply inviolably stable. Price heavily reliant on existing owners demand!

On Gold demand fell by 163.9 tonnes or 4.0% in 2014, according to the World Gold Council (WGC) annual report on gold demand trends - February 24, 2015 10:21pm

agree James.

On Gold is the worst investment in history! This headline - which was followed by several paragraphs of 'analysis', appeared in a recent article in Daily... - February 26, 2015 12:22am

Agree with you guys on this - the entire Super industry needs to be reviewed - contribution rates, preservation ages, tax within it - the negative press it's received isn't surprising, but there is merit in a broad review.

On We don't always agree with Joe Hockey, but we think he's right to trigger a debate about allowing young Australians to access their super savings to fund home... - March 25, 2015 4:53am

Interesting comment James - i can remember that happening when the NASDAQ bubbling along 13 years - the more things change the more they stay the same hey. Henry - you've to think long term - $654k per job is nothing - they'll mostly be part time earning $30k a year - will pay themselves off in no time :-)

On Afternoon report and something to ponder.. - October 31, 2013 6:32am

Good article, but strange not one major bank or property group mentioning ABS Housing and Occupancy Costs report. At least 5 to 6 million spare beds in this nation today - not convinced at all on major housing shortage. Also, latest census shows for first time in 100 years, we saw an INCREASE in number of people living in each house. Thats what happens when times get tougher, people compromise on housing wants, and settle for housing needs. Thats a trend that will continue!

On ANZ: the housing shortage could bump prices by up to 20% - the bank notes two key themes (1) house prices are rising substantially, 15-20% in the next few... - October 3, 2013 2:50am

Beat me to it Tom - was just about to post those questions from David on here as well.

On From David Einhorn: In August, the San Francisco Fed published an economic research paper that estimated that the $600 billion spent on QE2 added a meager... - November 1, 2013 12:27am

That's right James / Matt - and not sure if you guys saw this one from Gallup - but looking like it's going to be an unhappy Xmas for retailers with American's planning to cut back on the retail spending cheer. http://www.gallup.com/poll/165872/americans-trimming-holiday-spending-plans.aspx Not to mention the fact that news about WalMart store doing a food drive for it's own staff who can't afford to celebrate Thanksgiving. Sad sign of the way America is heading.

On US retailers are fast approaching their most important weekend of the year: Thanksgiving! - November 19, 2013 11:44pm

Fear not - if it's unsustainable, it won't be sustained - and Aussie housing clearly fits the bill. I think we'll see a fairly significant correction (in real terms) over the next decade, although i think the market still has a ways to run, especially in NSW. Lower rates in 2014 will add impetus too. Crazy anecdote btw James - i live in Balmain and it's a similar story there

On Records continue to fall faster than England wickets.Gonna be a long summer for this POM..Another record close in the US will propel us higher - November 25, 2013 4:34am

Very interesting post Tom - interesting two of their short trades involve betting against commodity currencies - hard to see logic in that unless you aren't bullish global growth (which i'm not personally but not sure that's the GS 'house' view), and would also make the 1900 target for the S&P strange, unless they have a no/minimal Fed tapering stance.

On Goldman have named their top three long-short trades for the year ahead (many of you have likely read this already) - November 29, 2013 6:57am

Hard to see an genuine economic recovery when this is occurring. Surely you'd be funnelling more money into R&D, Upgrading capital equipment, hiring more staff etc if you thought economy was on the mend. Also something to keep in mind when looking at EPS and ROE for the market etc

On The 30 companies listed on the Dow Jones industrial average have authorized $211 billion in buybacks in 2013, according to data from -Birinyi Associates,... - December 18, 2013 11:55pm

Jay what is 'healthy inflation'. Surely if inflation is 'only 1%' then that's closer to 'price stability' than 2% or 3%. And as you say, the LFPR plunge is hiding the true state of unemployment in America (as is the lack of mainstream analysis on job quality vs quantity). Surely the average American is better off in inflation remains low, rather than high. Gallup poll just out showed a decent % of Americans see themselves in a worse position over last 12 months, despite 30% rally on Wall Street and +10% house price rise. http://www.gallup.com/poll/166850/americans-worse-off-financially-year-ago.aspx

On With so many Americans dropping out of the work force, the unemployment rate is not an entirely accurate metric of positive economic development - January 15, 2014 11:29pm

Yep, a company with cash on its balance sheet has 5 options - keep it there, pay down debt, invest/hire, increase dividends or engage in buybacks Invest/hire if positive there is more growth to be had (hardly any of this is happening). Keeping cash on balance sheet or paying down debt is healthy too. Increasing dividends and buying back stock won't help future growth or keep balance sheet healthy, but a great way to push up stock price and boost EPS. Long term this is unhealthy

On Jim Chanos has a new investment thesis the focuses on company buybacks - January 24, 2014 3:44am

Hey James - i've seen plenty of this too - but i think the following article (and especially the graph on cashflow growth vs capex) puts a big question mark over what is now almost consensus opinion re higher business Capex. The article i've linked in is worth the read too http://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-profit-growth-weaker-than-reported-2014-3

On I have been consistently reading views that the growth estimates for the US over the next few years have been understated - March 24, 2014 5:58am

With earnings unsustainably high, hardly any bears left in the market, and with P/E's at 25 (using Shiller) - lots of potential downside in stocks from here. If last 4 years prove to be cyclical inside secular bear, and P/E's drop below 10, and earnings revert to more sustainable levels - 50% haircut would be conservative IMO

On US After tax Corporate Profits are at all time highs and while the inclination is to say this is driven exclusively by programs like QE and ZIRP, the... - October 31, 2013 10:42pm

Great wire Gavin and top article to share.

On A nice article highlighting one of the most valuable uses of gold, as financial insurance, as it never expires or becomes worthless - October 24, 2013 5:41am

Nice article Chris - but ignoring the 'taper' - do you think the Fed will ever be able to end QE?

On My 3 biggest macro issues now - European short term rates, Chinese growth and timing of tapering -... - November 1, 2013 5:03am

Spot on mate - the jawboning on the tapering / end of QE has been 'the story' of 2013 - definitely a year where actions have not spoken louder than words

On With gold trading below USD $1300, and with BNP cutting their 2014 gold price forecast to $1,050 it's timely to show what 'consensus' forecasts for gold have... - November 12, 2013 7:21am

Great article James - similar feature occurring here in Oz with credit card balances declining. Problem of course is there friends in Washington are adding it in bucketloads. Additional $7 Trillion in debt - equivalent to an extra $48k in debt per taxpayer. Ouch!

On For all intents and purposes, the US has kicked its credit card addiction - November 12, 2013 9:26pm

and believe they are talking tonight in Sydney is that right Gavin ?

On Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR) is up 150% since June on encouraging regional exploration results at Yamarna in WA - November 19, 2013 3:00am

Good update Jay - but why the conviction that QE will be tapered in 2014, at least in any meaningful way? They gave themselves the flexibility with QE3 for it to continue permanently for a very good reason.

On Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen will have the daunting task of winding down Fed stimulus without causing the equity markets to collapse - November 19, 2013 11:42pm

Hadn't seen that weekly cross no - surprised they didn't get closer in the correction in 08 - keen to see what it looked like back in the 74-76 correction too. What are your thoughts now mate - $1000 on the cards?

On Bad night for precious metal bulls last night with bullion under pressure, slammed down twice, first into the $1360 range (halting trading) and again later in... - November 21, 2013 4:51am

agree - market is desperately looking for a catalyst - going to be a tough end for 2013 and early 2014 no doubt .

On Bad night for precious metal bulls last night with bullion under pressure, slammed down twice, first into the $1360 range (halting trading) and again later in... - November 21, 2013 5:05am

Good share Jay, but i would have take issue with some of this. Firstly, loan growth from the US banks has been non-existent (in fact i think lending to SME's in the US just turned marginally positive for the first time in 4 years), so his first point is highly questionable. His second point is true, but stock market wealth is highly concentrated, main street guys aren't getting much of that action at all.

On Has the Fed actually helped the average person with its policies, or just the privileged few on Wall Street - November 26, 2013 11:22pm

Spot on - physical demand will top 1,000 tonnes this year - and thats just the official numbers being shipped through HK. Doesn't account for business people/tourists from Shanghai, Shenzen, Beijing etc who head to HK and buy jewellery/bullion bars and fly them home. Today, most will judge 2013 is the year the gold bull market died, but history will judge it as the year China took over the market.

On Good Morning Vietnam.........relatively quiet night for gold, as lower consumer confidence figures in the US were offset by a relatively strong Richmond Fed... - November 27, 2013 11:37am

Spot on Chris - i'm not trying to be partisan here (as i'm not) but we've gone from 'no more debt' to 'no more debt ceiling', 'stop the boats' to 'stop talking about the boats', and 'we will be a government of no surprises' to 'we will be a government with no shortage of surprises'. Not hard to see why people are quickly losing faith.

On Love this article - December 2, 2013 10:10pm

Funnily enough there are some 'cycles investors' who think gold will bottom in Jan 2014 as well

On The chart on the following link compares the period leading into the 1929 stock market crash against the current market - December 4, 2013 12:08am

you could well be right Chris - interesting that Credit Suisse are out arguing gold is in the 'capitulation phase' of its bear market. I think we're going to bottom by Q1 2014

On Gold could trade down to the lower band of the Bollinger band on the daily chart of $1210 if we get strong data out of the US tonight - December 3, 2013 11:00pm

Thanks James - even Westpac out this morning saying GDP for Q4 likely to be sub 1% now.

On Will tonight be the night gold plunges through USD $1200 - December 5, 2013 10:04pm

not to mention bullion mate - a lot of people would have expected to see gold crushed off back of last week's news culminating in payrolls. Might just be a short lived reprieve for the bulls though

On Fridays US payrolls was enough to cause a few strategists to change their tapering call to December, however it was the reaction in the market to the strong... - December 8, 2013 9:33pm

American businesses are 'stocking' again - inventory build up was over 50% of GDP growth in last 12 months. Wouldn't count on this trend continuing unless we see sustained job growth in the US (which is looking up after last Friday), but a long way to go before we can be sure.

On Chinese exports jumped nearly 13% compared to a year ago! American's are buying again! - December 8, 2013 9:32pm

interesting when the bank only recently released another bearish gold outlook. Shows how beaten down they are, and the sector in general

On Macquarie Bank goes substantial in Kingsgate with 9%, does this mean a short squeeze is about to begin - December 11, 2013 1:56am

Amazing that 'record' outflows from bond funds don't even equal 1 month of QE from the Fed. No wonder markets are completely controlled/obsessed with central bank decisions

On Bond mutual funds are headed for record redemptions in 2013, removing $70.7 billion so far - December 12, 2013 4:12am

could be right mate - disinflation trend this year and rising yields definitely been a drag on gold prices. Think the Fed will be watching that 3% line pretty closely, i don't think the US economy healthy enough to sustain much higher rates just now

On Gold prices reclaimed the USD $1200 price level Friday even as US GDP was revised higher. With sentiment weakened further by the 'surprise' QE taper last... - December 23, 2013 2:04am

Me too Gavin - i was still in Uni at the time but working for a broker - god there was some rubbish out there back then. We never learn hey!

On The dot-com fiasco all over again, with minnow Minerals Corp (ASX: MSC) announcing the purchase of a cloud-based IT business - December 30, 2013 1:34am

the Yellen effect? :-)

On Interesting that Fridays NFP's, all the jobs went to females - January 12, 2014 10:35pm

Some good stuff in here Tom - especially point 3 - the Steve Bradbury investment strategy - if you can just stay on your feet whilst everyone else is falling over, you'll end up winning

On Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann shares his Austrian School perspective in this note, outlining a number of market risks and observations for the year ahead - January 13, 2014 10:32pm

Fascinating bit of analysis. Question i guess is whether the crisis is really over. QE, ZIRP, wealth confiscation being proposed by the IMF, there's quite a bit that could go wrong in the years ahead.

On Just how bad was the GFC in comparison with other financial crises - January 15, 2014 11:39pm

i think the scarier thing is that the head of the IMF is calling inflation a genie Good call James on tier 2's and resources in general. If i was looking for a long/short for the year (not that this is my speciality) i'd be long gold miners / short banks.

On If inflation is the genie, then deflation is the ogre that must be fought decisively Christine Lagarde...she warned against premature withdrawal of... - January 15, 2014 11:27pm

Brilliant James

On This is an interesting story on the single event 5 years ago that marked the turning point for Twitter - remember the plane that landed on the Hudson... - January 16, 2014 1:43am

Eye of the hurricane IMO James - 6 years ago the US 10 year yielded more than Greeces. Every major Euro nation was a worse govt debt to GDP ratio, loan growth is weak, economy barely growing. Banks still horribly over levered, and political dysfunction and tension on the rise. This story, sadly, is a long way from over

On European government bond markets are saying the euro crisis is pretty much over - January 23, 2014 10:00pm

good call Chris - the resilience it's showing vs commodity currencies not unexpected with the China PMI but portends another year of dissapointing GDP growth

On The story of the night has been the diverging paths of the USD - January 23, 2014 10:01pm

HI Guys. no doubt weather a factor, but latest ADP report showed +25,000 in construction (+30k and +32k in previous two). the BLS report had construction +48k (admittedly was neg in December). Hard to see the weather affect there. Zerohedge had a (typically sarcastic) article on it here. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-07/biggest-job-winners-construction-and-losers-government-january

On Is the US economy faltering or is just the bad weather - February 9, 2014 8:53pm

Market Top ?

On The end of another era as Aitken draws the curtain on Ringing the Bell - February 10, 2014 2:05am

Hey Jay - nice post. I'm obviously a gold bull, although i wouldn't rule out another test of USD $1200 at least. Having said that, one thing all gold bulls and bears should agree on is that gold 'will last'. Whether it's in a bullish or bearish cycle (and i accept not everyone will agree with the bullish thesis) gold has no credit risk whatsoever and is highly liquid. The only risk investors take is volatility, which, viewed through a different prism, can also be seen as an opportunity. Jordan

On With macroeconomic conditions in flux, is gold back on the table as the go-to safe haven investment - February 10, 2014 8:52pm

Pete re your comment on stock market front running the economy, what did it do last year? Economy weakened, market flew!

On Newspaper headlines saying doom and gloom tomorrow - February 27, 2014 4:42am

Ha - yeah a couple of stiff whiskies might be in order. Not trying to be doom and gloom, and there are some positives, but on balance things look very weak. Tough times ahead i feel.

On QANTAS sacks 5,000 and Capex numbers tank - February 27, 2014 6:10am

This is a very good read. Was at a Vanguard presentation last week and they thought CAPE was one of the better, if not best predictor of long term returns. If so, its going to be an ugly decade ahead, as in real terms - investors have NEVER made money in the following decade following valuations at these levels, and the drawdowns have on average been + 50%!

On GMO: The S&P is over-valued on every model - March 2, 2014 9:15pm

agree mate - its impressive how efficient they are and as you say a testament to adapting to new technologies etc

On The ham and pineapple pizza is making a comeback - March 2, 2014 10:10pm

Nice wire Gavin. ETF's looking better too - GLD back above 800 tonnes at last glance. Did you see the AFR article over the weekend re Gold? Still bearish - which is great to see IMO

On Gold continues to defy the skeptics, with hedge funds' net long positions climbing by 25% to their highest level in 14 months - March 3, 2014 12:57am

Previous ADP report downgraded big time too

On A couple worse than expected economic reports suggest the US economy isn't out of the woods yet - March 6, 2014 1:29am

Debt to GDP is only one metric - interest expenses vs taxation revenue a better one IMO. Any increase in borrowing costs will crush the US budget (and other sovereigns for that matter). Also - ageing population hurting now. Even the GAO forecast that Medicare/Medicaid etc would grow at 2-3 times the pace of GDP between 2007-2032. They are unprepared IMO.

On Is the new normal for US growth going to be just 2% - March 12, 2014 10:24am

How about debt servicing Jay?

On Is the new normal for US growth going to be just 2% - March 11, 2014 10:46pm

Nice Tom - we are so China obsessed we conveniently forget just how important Japan is to our fortunes. +200% debt to GDP ratio consuming 30% of tax revenue with rates sub 1%, and a declining population. Not a good outlook for one our biggest clients!

On Is it also time to worry about Japan - March 12, 2014 10:21am

Yeah mate - SocGen commented here http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/03/australian-dollar-shot-as-currency-cold-war-turns-hot/

On Vladimir Putin is almost as popular as Kim Jong Un - March 16, 2014 11:50pm

No arguments from me Chris - i think we will test USD $1350 from here first - was always going to be some Crimea 'premium' come out of the market after the referendum there. Cheers

On A golden-cross for the yellow metal this week could see a $2000 gold price by late 2015. Based on data going back to 2000, a golden cross has led to a 50%... - March 17, 2014 10:08pm

im a gold bull - not a gold bug (it is different i promise), but the Saxo report did touch on some important points. I think highly likely gold takes a year to bottom properly, which would put a final bottom around June 2014. Whether thats at $1180 or sub $1,000 remains to be seen, but there is no likely short term catalyst for higher prices right now.

On Tepid data from the US, Europe and China was not enough to halt golds slide yesterday. The move overnight brought back unpleasant memories of 2013 when sharp... - March 27, 2014 5:31am

With average deficits of nearly $1 Trillion a year post GFC - i think they've given fiscal stimulus a decent shake. Might be able to borrow at zero in real terms now, but will that last forever?

On Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary under Clinton and an important economic voice, is urging the US government to spend more - April 8, 2014 12:23am

Liked this video - the comments about all that money in China losing real purchasing power no doubt one of the reasons physical gold imports from HK regularly running at +100 tons a month. Better to save in bullion than banks!

On Rhett Kessler, Senior Fund Manager at Pengana Capital says one thing keeps him up at night - inflation - April 8, 2014 11:35pm

Trend v Seasonally adjusted was the big news - undoubtedly a strong result, and rate cuts off table (for now) but trend (which ABS itself says is better) didn't look so great. Again note difference between FT and PT jobs too.

On Employment report strong. Unemployemnt 5.8% and 18,000 more jobs. No more talk of rate cuts!! - April 10, 2014 7:23am

Par for the course i think. Retail sales have been stronger than expected and the employment result was a standout. Having said that, they'd be well aware of weakening business and consumer confidence, which might get worse if Big Joe keeps talking tough re the budget. AUD will be worrying them too, so there's no chance of a hike, but i'll concede my call of further cuts now looking premature.

On RBA minutes just released, here are selection of quotes that stood out, interested to hear other peoples thoughts - April 15, 2014 7:23am

Good sign that retail investor demand still pretty steady Gavin - cheers for that - i'd missed that announcement.

On The US Mint has sold 3,519,000 ounces of silver coins so far in April according to figures on the Mint's website, up 18.4% from last... - April 24, 2014 12:02am

interesting - no doubt EPS growth has been impressive, but its not due to strong corporate growth to paraphrase the report. Stock buy backs have been a major factor in EPS growth, and other measures of corporate growth have been far less impressive, especially free cash flow, which is one major reason corporate capex is still so weak.

On UBS: Bull markets die from excesses - not old age: The fundamental growth in the current five-year old bull market can be attributed largely to an impressive... - April 28, 2014 12:26am

Pretty decent mate - volumes are solid, though not having a spectacular pick up like we did a year ago when the circa $200 drop occurred. More interest at the 'professional' end of town too, but people understandably nervous to increase allocations or introduce allocations with the market where it is right now

On At one point on Thursday the 24th April, it looked like the bottom was going to well and truly fall out of the precious metal sector. During European trading,... - April 30, 2014 3:25am

Great share Tom - this is hardly every talked about at all - many analysts just look at the cash levels.

On A big problem that no one is talking about: US corporate Debt. Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok says if you look at cash levels relative to debt levels you find... - May 1, 2014 1:16am

Great article - also a reason why most retirees/pre retirees aren't fearful of higher inflation (or positioned to protect from it). From a sequencing perspective, it happened 3 decades ago, when they were all much younger with much left to lose.

On We may not have heard of 'Sequencing risk' enough before 2008 but many investors are well aware of it now - May 2, 2014 4:02pm

Great share Tom - so so true - i feel almost sick for 'liking' bonds all things considered - but its hard not to see an opportunity when everyone is so bearish

On Paul Tudor Jones, the legendary Hedge Fund Manager at Tudor Investments says that everyone's in too much of a hurry to sell fixed-income (bonds) ahead of rates... - May 6, 2014 1:53am

agree with a lot of this - good video

On A contrarian view on the US economy - May 22, 2014 3:25am

Hi Mate - something Dylan Grice wrote about a few years ago when at SocGen - the end game is pretty easy to predict - Default on a epic scale - just a question of its an honest default (ie telling Mr and Mrs Watanabe that their assets ie loans to the government) are worth a lot less than 'market value', or continued debt monetization. Entire Western world headed down this path. Question is how to protect (let alone profit) from whats about to unfold.

On So the BOJ think they will exit its QQE (easing) program - May 27, 2014 5:02am

yeah gold in JPY has done fine of late - but short term its not looking great (in USD at least). The problem for the BOJ and Abe only compounded by the fact most of the debt is held internally and they're demographics are so bad. If the BOJ steps away from market and domestic pension funds need to sell, how does it not implode? You get the feeling a few decades from now financial history books will have a chapter focused specifically on Japan!

On So the BOJ think they will exit its QQE (easing) program - May 27, 2014 8:04am

So true Gavin. We're so Fed obsessed when it comes to Gold - but real physical demand isn't determined in the US or London. If Western investors (mostly via ETFs) do change their tune, and even want 5-10% allocations to metals - then things could get very interesting in the PM space.

On Whilst the West becomes complacent about gold, China, India and central banks will buy 90% of all gold that's produced during 2014 - June 11, 2014 2:17am