The reactions following the release of Australia’s most recent GDP figures provide an opportunity to consider whether such announcements provide useful information for forecasting purposes. It turns out that we hardly know where we were last quarter, which makes forecasting a rather wild activity. Show More
Should fund managers place even more of their skin in the game? A respected, global, asset consultant believes so. Whilst there is some merit in this idea, it could make things worse. Maybe asset owners and their advisors might lead the way? Show More
The prospect of a trade war has become more significant again. While China may fare worse than the US in this scenario, there are some broader implications that could enhance China's power on the global stage, not least via the One Belt One Road initiative. Here I discuss this and... Show More
Thanks Geoff. To extend on that thought, what value should you give to that prediction if the extent to which it is expected to be wrong roughly matches that of a random draw from historical observations?