The big moves overnight: what, how and why?
Overnight, we have seen a rally for Treasuries and the biggest surge in major U.S stock indexes since March. We have seen the NASDAQ 100 gain 3.2%, the S&P500 gain 2.3%, and the NYSE Composite gain 1.88%. Across other asset classes, we have seen: Show More
Amazon’s next victim: Healthcare...
US healthcare stocks were hit hard overnight on news that Amazon has healthcare in its sights, backed by Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan. Jamie Dimon summarised plans in saying: “Our goal is to create solutions that benefit our U.S. employees, their families and, potentially, all Americans”. Show More
Bitcoin cracks $10,000...
Bitcoin has just traded above $10,000 on Korean exchanges. Coindesk reports that: "On Bithumb – the region's largest exchange by trade volume – bitcoin is trading at roughly $10,052. On exchanges Coinone and Korbit, the cryptocurrency is trading at around 10,979,500 KRW ($10,108) and 10,960,500 KRW ($10,047), respectively." Show More
Jeff Bezos’ guide to life
This Techcrunch piece gives some candid insight into the man behind the Amazon behemoth currently launching right here in Australia. The highlights reel covers why he avoids multi-tasking, why he strives for ‘work-life-harmony’, and why he covets resourcefulness so highly. Show More
Has Australia's luck run out?
Matt Barrie, the CEO of Freelancer said in an essay this week: “For over a quarter of a century our economy mostly grew because of dumb luck. Luck because our country is relatively large and abundant in natural resources, resources that have been in huge demand from a close neighbor.”... Show More
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Financial Advisers can add 3% alpha to client’s portfolio
In this entertaining short article, Wheelhouse reviews the evidence pointing to the significant positive impact that financial advisors can have on their clients. Show More
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Fear of missing out starts to bite
James Swanson, Chief Investment Strategist at MFS turned cautious on global markets earlier this year, but after unexpectedly strong data from Asia, Europe, and the US, he asks if it’s time to change views. Show More
Glenn Stevens' thought piece: The key takeouts
In this thought piece for Ellerston Capital's new global macro fund, Glenn Stevens, the former RBA governor, has some fresh views on drivers of persistent low inflation in this fascinating read that also set this issue within a very long-term historical context. We distilled the highlights for you, and link... Show More
5 cognitive biases that hurt us most
At a fund presentation yesterday, the manager said: “At its core, investing is actually a very simple business… The problem, however, is that it’s incredibly difficult”. Part of the reason is the plethora of cognitive biases we have as humans, five of which are summarised in this infographic from Visual... Show More
The tech takeover of advertising
This remarkable chart on the growing dominance of Alphabet and Facebook in the advertising market neatly illustrates comments from Hamish Douglass in a recent Livewire interview on the massive opportunities still ahead for the big platforms. Show More
A new trillion-dollar-fund
The Economist published a short blog on Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest, pointing out that the fund has just passed the $1 trillion mark. Show More
Why Pimco is derisking
One of the world’s largest investment managers, Pimco, has been openly talking about de-risking the portfolio. In this short video just published, Group CIO Dan Ivascyn shortlists some of the key risks on their radar, and how they are adjusting the portfolios to be able to weather a recession. Show More
Bitcoin: Just what is it all about?
Jamie Dimon has called Bitcoin "a fraud" and that he would fire any trader trading in it because it was "stupid". But with a total valuation of A$185 billion, or roughly double the cap of ANZ, the bitcoin universe is either real, or it is the largest fraud in history.... Show More
The economic impact of AI
By 2030, AI is expected to provide a $15.7 trillion boost to GDP worldwide, which is not much smaller than the US economy today. This infographic takes a look at how this could be spread geographically, and by industry. According to PwC, the region receiving by far the most economic... Show More
Commodities threaten their decade-long downtrend
There have been some real fireworks in the base metals complex in recent weeks, with Zinc and copper hitting multi-year highs, and nickel and cobalt moving very strongly. Sprott Asset Management has published a view on the fundamentals in the metals, suggesting a decade-long technical downtrend may be ending: Show More
The four companies Buffett is betting on next
This Time article looks at companies that Buffett is putting Berkshire Hathaway’s $100 billion cash reserves to work on. At the Berkshire meeting in May, Buffett was open about missing Apple early, but is now on board. Here are the three others he likes. Show More
Ray Dalio: Risks are rising. Allocate 5-10% of your portfolio to gold
Ray Dalio, Chairman and CIO of Bridgewater Associates has released a new memo this morning where he notes that risks are rising and prudent investors should be preparing wisely. The key points of the memo are: Show More
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US or China: Which is the Superpower?
This infographic asks whether it is the US or China that is perceived as the more dominant economic power? For starters, this depends on where you ask that question, with most Australians saying China, while China's neighbours say that it is the US. Show More
A bit of history repeating?
This blog from Brandywine takes a look a the remarkable similarity between the charts of 21 key commodities and indicators today, and those from 20 years ago. while prefacing the observations by stating that "history only rhymes, so any historical analog has to be treated carefully in order to not... Show More
Howard Marks sounds the alarm
Master of the market, Howard Marks, has issued a cautious memo stating: “I think it’s better to turn cautious too soon (and thus perhaps underperform for a while) rather than too late, after the downslide has begun, making it hard to trim risk, achieve exits and cut losses.” Livewire has... Show More
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Interesting wire thanks. Huff post have put a good polltracker together: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
On The US presidential election - Implications for investors -
BIS Shrapnel associate director, Kim Hawtrey says “We are at a turning point. We are seeing headwinds looming in the residential market … it will be turning point from a seller's market to a buyer's market. There will not be any bubble bursting or a crash, we don't see it as a bubble anyway but a calming."
On Morgan Stanley analysts are calling the peak of the housing cycle -
However, Eddy Elfenbein makes the point that if you annualise the past 5 months readings core CPI is tracking 2.37% so far this year http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/06/inflation-may-be-creeping-higher.html
On US Inflation fails to impress. The pace of hikes is going to be “very, very slow” -
Seems that rate cycle has certainly bottomed. With the QE debate unlikely to be factored into the investor psyche until 2014 it feels like there are few impediments to an increase in the momentum of a recovery on the East Coast of Australia. AUD obviously is the key concern for RBA and I think they would be happy to let inflation run a little (if it emerges) before they look at hiking rates.
Full article: http://sprottglobal.com/thoughts/
Full article for AFR subscribers: http://www.afr.com/p/blogs/christopher_joye/bond_bubble_will_eventually_burst_se28uu2LMAPPfQ1APqMjbP
Thanks Chris, that's a great overview
That's great news for the Kenyan economy, and another big move for China into East Africa. Will the rail be designed for civilian user, bulks transportation, or both?
Hi Evan, This is an interesting point as this would push against the general derating of the big ASX yield plays, the banks. If the US market is switching to the quest for yield, then it would drive buying for yielding stocks over here, even though we are looking fully priced (and then some). Is that about it?
On The eight-week rotation thematic - the breakdown in high price momentum plays is accelerating -
Tony that link doesn't seem to be working? Can you please try re posting
Good wrap up, thanks Chris.
Good wire - thanks for the intel Chris.
On JP Morgan put out a note yesterday recommending clients buy Chinese equities -
We'll be watching this one closely John, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Hope you had a great break and are charged for a big year ahead.
Similar arguments in the Australian today applied to Australian Banks. Investors in the Big Banks such as Argo and UBS are saying it is hard to find the banks attractive at this point and that PE's can't continue to expand. Aitken believes most analysts fail to understand what has been driving investor interest in the banks and that they will continue to rise in line with dividends. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/dividend-flow-will-boost-shares/story-fn91v9q3-1226767374476
John, another interesting chart here. I have been watching the small resources sector for the last few years and wondering what it is going to take to bring money back into the sector. Sustained recovery in commodity prices is clearly the answer in my view as evidenced by iron ore stocks. Is a recovery from developed nations such as the US + Europe more important to commodity prices or are emerging markets a more powerful influence?
John, this has been a serial disappointment, however, the asset truly is tier 1 which is why they have made it as far as they have. Yesterday's move in SDL was very bullish for junior resources
A default looks unlikely but the fact we are all talking about it has bruised confidence. Equity markets look to have brushed this aside for the time being but you have to believe volatility will be a feature of the coming months
This news comes after Abu Dhabi Investment Authority dumped a 4.8% stake in Transurban Group on Monday - the $477million block trade was launched b y UBS when the market closed on Monday afternoon. UBS lodged a substantial shareholder notice on Wednesday afternoon, which showed it had underwritten the t rade on behalf of ADIA subsidiary Tawreed Investments. The block was underwritten at $6.76 a share. Transurban was trading at $6.82 on Wednesday afternoon (0.88% discount).
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/jpmorgan-mortgage-division-job-cuts/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ValuewalkBusiness+%28ValueWalk+%C2%BB+Business%29
NAB business confidence survey: http://business.nab.com.au/monthly-business-survey-may-2013-3928/
Home loans data can be found on the ABS website: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument