Interesting wire thanks. Huff post have put a good polltracker together: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
On The US presidential election - Implications for investors -
BIS Shrapnel associate director, Kim Hawtrey says “We are at a turning point. We are seeing headwinds looming in the residential market … it will be turning point from a seller's market to a buyer's market. There will not be any bubble bursting or a crash, we don't see it as a bubble anyway but a calming."
On Morgan Stanley analysts are calling the peak of the housing cycle -
However, Eddy Elfenbein makes the point that if you annualise the past 5 months readings core CPI is tracking 2.37% so far this year http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2015/06/inflation-may-be-creeping-higher.html
On US Inflation fails to impress. The pace of hikes is going to be “very, very slow” -
Seems that rate cycle has certainly bottomed. With the QE debate unlikely to be factored into the investor psyche until 2014 it feels like there are few impediments to an increase in the momentum of a recovery on the East Coast of Australia. AUD obviously is the key concern for RBA and I think they would be happy to let inflation run a little (if it emerges) before they look at hiking rates.
Full article: http://sprottglobal.com/thoughts/
Full article for AFR subscribers: http://www.afr.com/p/blogs/christopher_joye/bond_bubble_will_eventually_burst_se28uu2LMAPPfQ1APqMjbP
Thanks Chris, that's a great overview
That's great news for the Kenyan economy, and another big move for China into East Africa. Will the rail be designed for civilian user, bulks transportation, or both?
Hi Evan, This is an interesting point as this would push against the general derating of the big ASX yield plays, the banks. If the US market is switching to the quest for yield, then it would drive buying for yielding stocks over here, even though we are looking fully priced (and then some). Is that about it?
On The eight-week rotation thematic - the breakdown in high price momentum plays is accelerating -
Tony that link doesn't seem to be working? Can you please try re posting
Good wrap up, thanks Chris.
Good wire - thanks for the intel Chris.
On JP Morgan put out a note yesterday recommending clients buy Chinese equities -
We'll be watching this one closely John, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Hope you had a great break and are charged for a big year ahead.
Similar arguments in the Australian today applied to Australian Banks. Investors in the Big Banks such as Argo and UBS are saying it is hard to find the banks attractive at this point and that PE's can't continue to expand. Aitken believes most analysts fail to understand what has been driving investor interest in the banks and that they will continue to rise in line with dividends. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/dividend-flow-will-boost-shares/story-fn91v9q3-1226767374476
John, another interesting chart here. I have been watching the small resources sector for the last few years and wondering what it is going to take to bring money back into the sector. Sustained recovery in commodity prices is clearly the answer in my view as evidenced by iron ore stocks. Is a recovery from developed nations such as the US + Europe more important to commodity prices or are emerging markets a more powerful influence?
John, this has been a serial disappointment, however, the asset truly is tier 1 which is why they have made it as far as they have. Yesterday's move in SDL was very bullish for junior resources
A default looks unlikely but the fact we are all talking about it has bruised confidence. Equity markets look to have brushed this aside for the time being but you have to believe volatility will be a feature of the coming months
This news comes after Abu Dhabi Investment Authority dumped a 4.8% stake in Transurban Group on Monday - the $477million block trade was launched b y UBS when the market closed on Monday afternoon. UBS lodged a substantial shareholder notice on Wednesday afternoon, which showed it had underwritten the t rade on behalf of ADIA subsidiary Tawreed Investments. The block was underwritten at $6.76 a share. Transurban was trading at $6.82 on Wednesday afternoon (0.88% discount).
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/jpmorgan-mortgage-division-job-cuts/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ValuewalkBusiness+%28ValueWalk+%C2%BB+Business%29
NAB business confidence survey: http://business.nab.com.au/monthly-business-survey-may-2013-3928/
Home loans data can be found on the ABS website: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5609.0?OpenDocument