Australian Results Season: Resurrection or Crucifixion?

Marcus Padley

Here is the ASX 200 results calendar - the results season is still a couple of weeks away. As usual, it is a best endeavours calendar, some companies simply don’t set a reliable date. The big companies generally do. Show More

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A couple of hot stocks

Marcus Padley

A2M is up 9% in two days helped by the BAL earnings upgrade. It has also announced it will expand its brand throughout the North East of the US starting this month. The area is home to 60 million consumers which according to research from A2M accounts for 20% of... Show More

Managing a bubble

Marcus Padley

You may have seen an article recently about the head of the Dutch central bank, Klaas Knot, who is also a governor on the ECB, saying that “the picture resembles that of the period before the financial crisis”, that we are “about to witness a brutal collapse in asset prices”.... Show More

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Alarm Bells Ringing – How to navigate a results season punctuated by profit warnings

Marcus Padley

OzForex (OFX) and GBST (GBT) have both had profit warnings - both are down 19% in a day. Aconex (ACX) fell 45% in a day on a profit warning earlier the same week. It is a $1.1bn stock (was $2bn). The alarm bells are ringing. In the same week, we... Show More

A bubble in danger

Marcus Padley

You may have noticed the rather pitiful performance of some of the infrastructure and utility stocks over the last 2-3 months. The utility sector is down 7.8% in three months, an underperformance of 12.4% relative to the All Ords index. This table shows the stocks we hold in the SMA... Show More

Was that the "Big Top"?

Marcus Padley

All eyes are on what the US markets are going to do tonight and whether Friday’s moves are the beginning of a downtrend or a blip in the uptrend. At the moment the US Dow Jones futures are down 46 (-0.25%), which is neither here nor there. My guess at... Show More

AMA Group: Growth story remains intact

Marcus Padley

AMA operates a chain of collision repair centres and services workshops for brakes and transmissions. It is also a manufacturer and wholesale distributor of alloy vehicle protection equipment, automotive and electrical accessories. AMA has a strong track record for identifying and acquiring high-quality businesses and integrating them successfully. Supporting this,... Show More

Rising rates is in the price - and for those who didn't live through the 1990s, 17% is a high interest rate, not 3.5% by the end of 2019 (!) - interest rates are going nowhere significant - if they did it would matter, but they aren't likely to.

On The Collins Class Rule -

James - I should have put up the small caps relative to the ASX 200 against the VIX - it would make the point better - small caps outperform on a relative basis when the market is more 'comfortable' . The small caps are flying relative to the market now - as Morgan Stanley point out...their PE relative to the large caps is a a premium only seen three times since 2000. Arguments aside - I've just take some (premature?) small cap profits because when this is going to be able to get out. Finger on trigger.

On Small Caps Flying -