Marcus Tuck

Responsible for identifying domestic and international equity investment opportunities. 25 years of financial markets experience as an equity strategist, economist, analyst, portfolio manager and consultant.

Expertise

Growth at a reasonable yield

Marcus Tuck

John D. Rockefeller once said: "Do you know the only thing that gives me pleasure? It's seeing my dividends coming in". Mr Rockefeller was perhaps a little too fond of his dividends, but they are an important component of total equity returns, particularly in a high-dividend-paying market such as Australia's... Show More

ASX:SUN ASX:SYD ASX:TCL ASX:WOW ASX:AGL

A record year for buybacks

Marcus Tuck

Buybacks can support stock prices by reducing share counts and boosting earnings per share, although that is no guarantee of producing a rising share price. Fundamentals such as revenues, underlying earnings trends, competitive prospects and interest rates still count for more. Show More

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FAANGs still looking sharp

Marcus Tuck

The FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google/Alphabet) led the market up and participated in the recent correction. Their latest profit reports are an important guide to the sustainability of the tech sector's rise. Here we argue that on a Price Earnings Growth basis, they still look sharp. Show More

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Why the equity market should resume its advance

Marcus Tuck

The problem with most economic data and company profit announcements is that they are backward-looking, while the share market is forward-looking. That is why we place so much emphasis on leading economic indicators that are designed to lead the business cycle by up to a year. Show More

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Maintain exposure to the mining sector

Marcus Tuck

The All Resources Index in trend terms has been outperforming the ASX 200 Index since the start of 2016. In this note we compare the performance of the big Australian mining stocks against their international peers on a common-currency basis, as well as comparing their current valuation metrics. Show More

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Copper leading resources higher

Marcus Tuck

The copper price is often regarded as a barometer of the world economy because of its wide-ranging applications in industrial production and electrical equipment. Copper is used everywhere from homes and factories, to electronics and power generation and transmission, so demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable indicator... Show More

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The only 6 stocks to pass our filters

Marcus Tuck

This time last year we published an article on Livewire called ‘Screening for low-risk equity investments’. Of the seven stocks we discussed, most did well, with an average gain of 90% across them. Livewire got in touch and asked us to reflect on the original research, and reapply the strategy... Show More

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This bull market isn't spent yet

Marcus Tuck

Three key indicators we focus on for a health check of the US equity market are: 1) The direction of US leading economic indicators (as a guide to future earnings); 2) The slope of the US yield curve (as an early warning of recession risk), and 3) The US equity... Show More

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Strategies to protect your portfolio

Marcus Tuck

Straw hats are cheaper to buy in winter, and the best time to repair a leaking roof is when it's not raining. In a similar vein, when market volatility is low and inexpensive, it's often a good time to buy some protection for equity portfolios to guard against "X-factor" downside... Show More

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Hypno Crypto – the strange world of cryptocurrencies

Marcus Tuck

The recent correction in the technology sector has been particularly volatile for the so called cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are a US$112 billion market that can turn over US$5 billion a day. Show More

Show me the way – US leading indicators and the sharemarket

Marcus Tuck

With US leading economic indicators still rising, a sustained fall in economic activity and the share market is not currently being signalled. Show More

Equity train could stay on the rails for now

Marcus Tuck

The market is expecting US growth to rebound from its temporary hiatus in the March quarter, and for China's growth to slow only modestly this year. If both of those things happen the equity train can stay on the rails for a while longer, with growth being neither too hot... Show More

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Risky Business - Calculating the US Equity Risk Premium

Marcus Tuck

Geopolitical concerns, delays to the Trump Administration’s planned fiscal stimulus, and benign US economic and inflation data have made bond markets more relaxed and equity markets more volatile. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has rallied from a recent peak of just over 2.6% in March to about 2.2% now.... Show More

Masters of War – US Defence contractors

Marcus Tuck

When President Trump ordered the launching of 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles against a Syrian airbase on Friday, it sent the share prices of defence contractors higher. The Tomahawk cruise missiles, for example, are manufactured by Raytheon and sell for about US$1 million each. Show More

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5 measures of market valuations, and what they're saying today

Marcus Tuck

There are several way of valuing the US stock market, such as a 12-month forward PE ratio for the S&P 500 index (currently 17.8x) and an estimate of the Equity Risk Premium (currently around 3.0%). Compared to historical averages, both of those measaures indicate a pretty full level of valuation. Show More

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An early warning signal for a bear market

Marcus Tuck

One of most reliable early warning indicators of an impending equity bear market is the shape of the US yield curve. When short-term interest rates are higher than long bond yields, it is a sign that monetary policy is tight enough to choke off growth in the economy and company... Show More

Beginning to see the light for emerging markets

Marcus Tuck

Similar to European equity markets, another part of the world where fearful perceptions have held back equity valuations is emerging markets. After being fairly range-bound from 2012 to mid-2015, fears of a hard landing for China’s economy impacted emerging markets in the second half of 2015 and early 2016. That... Show More

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Screening for low-risk equity investments

Marcus Tuck

When looking for relatively low-risk equity investments, companies with strong balance sheets are a good place to start the search. If they happen to be effectively debt-free with a net cash position, then even better. With no financial pressure on companies to service loans during business downturns, the risk of... Show More

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The Wall

Marcus Tuck

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index finally breaking through the 20,000 barrier last week to a record high, the state of US-Mexico relations sank to the lowest level in living memory, some say since the Mexican-American War of 1846-48 that followed the US annexation of Texas. Show More

Working for the Man - US Labour Market Outlook

Marcus Tuck

President Trump recently claimed he will be “the greatest jobs producer that God ever created”. Economists debate how much presidents actually influence job creation and President Trump is coming into office at a time when the US economy is already close to full employment in the opinion of the US... Show More

Thanks Michael. Yes, the Conference Board publish leading economic indicators for several countries, including Australia. You can see them at : https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1 Regards, Marcus

On Why the equity market should resume its advance -

It’s a fair question about Jumbo’s economic moat. Whilst it’s true that the lion’s share of JIN’s revenue is Tabcorp-related lotteries business, it appears to be reasonably secure. In May 2017, JIN expanded its decade-long commercial relationship with Tatts Group, with an extension and expansion of its existing lottery reseller agreements. All current reseller agreements (NSW, Victoria, SA, NT and Fiji) have been extended for five years and then continue on a 12-month rolling basis beyond 2022. The relationship was further strengthened by Tatts subscribing for a substantial shareholding in JIN. Tabcorp is currently the second-largest shareholder in JIN (12.64%), which should encourage strong alignment of long-term interests. The former COO of Tatts is now the MD of Lotteries & Keno for Tabcorp, where JIN had a close relationship with the previous Tatts executives. A competitor, Lottoland, which offers derivative-style products on lottery outcomes, was recently banned from offering any products on the outcomes of Australian lotteries, further strengthening JIN’s competitive position. A small but fast-growing part of JIN’s business is Charity Lottery sales, which represents a key growth area away from traditional lottery offerings. Regards, Marcus

On The only 6 stocks to pass our filters -