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Marcus Tuck

Responsible for identifying domestic and international equity investment opportunities. 25 years of financial markets experience as an equity strategist, economist, analyst, portfolio manager and consultant. Marcus has worked in stockbroking, funds management and investment consulting. Previous roles include founding director of small cap broker, LINWAR Securities and senior positions at BNP Paribas Equities, HSBC James Capel, Insync FM, Lonsec and Mercer.

This bull market isn't spent yet

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

Three key indicators we focus on for a health check of the US equity market are: 1) The direction of US leading economic indicators (as a guide to future earnings); 2) The slope of the US yield curve (as an early warning of recession risk), and 3) The US equity... Show More

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Strategies to protect your portfolio

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

Straw hats are cheaper to buy in winter, and the best time to repair a leaking roof is when it's not raining. In a similar vein, when market volatility is low and inexpensive, it's often a good time to buy some protection for equity portfolios to guard against "X-factor" downside... Show More

strategy ASX:BEAR ASX:BBOZ educational ASX"BBOZ ASX:AXW

Hypno Crypto – the strange world of cryptocurrencies

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

The recent correction in the technology sector has been particularly volatile for the so called cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are a US$112 billion market that can turn over US$5 billion a day. Show More

Show me the way – US leading indicators and the sharemarket

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

With US leading economic indicators still rising, a sustained fall in economic activity and the share market is not currently being signalled. Show More

Equity train could stay on the rails for now

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

The market is expecting US growth to rebound from its temporary hiatus in the March quarter, and for China's growth to slow only modestly this year. If both of those things happen the equity train can stay on the rails for a while longer, with growth being neither too hot... Show More

inflation growth gdp China us rates macro

Risky Business - Calculating the US Equity Risk Premium

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

Geopolitical concerns, delays to the Trump Administration’s planned fiscal stimulus, and benign US economic and inflation data have made bond markets more relaxed and equity markets more volatile. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has rallied from a recent peak of just over 2.6% in March to about 2.2% now.... Show More

Masters of War – US Defence contractors

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

When President Trump ordered the launching of 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles against a Syrian airbase on Friday, it sent the share prices of defence contractors higher. The Tomahawk cruise missiles, for example, are manufactured by Raytheon and sell for about US$1 million each. Show More

geopolitical risk us stocks

5 measures of market valuations, and what they're saying today

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

There are several way of valuing the US stock market, such as a 12-month forward PE ratio for the S&P 500 index (currently 17.8x) and an estimate of the Equity Risk Premium (currently around 3.0%). Compared to historical averages, both of those measaures indicate a pretty full level of valuation. Show More

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An early warning signal for a bear market

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

One of most reliable early warning indicators of an impending equity bear market is the shape of the US yield curve. When short-term interest rates are higher than long bond yields, it is a sign that monetary policy is tight enough to choke off growth in the economy and company... Show More

Beginning to see the light for emerging markets

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

Similar to European equity markets, another part of the world where fearful perceptions have held back equity valuations is emerging markets. After being fairly range-bound from 2012 to mid-2015, fears of a hard landing for China’s economy impacted emerging markets in the second half of 2015 and early 2016. That... Show More

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Screening for low-risk equity investments

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

When looking for relatively low-risk equity investments, companies with strong balance sheets are a good place to start the search. If they happen to be effectively debt-free with a net cash position, then even better. With no financial pressure on companies to service loans during business downturns, the risk of... Show More

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The Wall

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index finally breaking through the 20,000 barrier last week to a record high, the state of US-Mexico relations sank to the lowest level in living memory, some say since the Mexican-American War of 1846-48 that followed the US annexation of Texas. Show More

Working for the Man - US Labour Market Outlook

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

President Trump recently claimed he will be “the greatest jobs producer that God ever created”. Economists debate how much presidents actually influence job creation and President Trump is coming into office at a time when the US economy is already close to full employment in the opinion of the US... Show More

Livin' on a prayer

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

The US economy is already in its eighth year of expansion, albeit one of sub-par GDP growth until recently. S&P 500 earnings are near all-time highs, as are equity indices and valuations. Goldman Sachs’ global strategy team points out that the US has followed a fairly typical equity cycle post... Show More

The long-awaited return of Australian earnings growth

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

A significant turning point for the US stock market was reached in Q3 2016 with the return of positive year-on-year growth in US corporate profits. The long-awaited return of Australian earnings growth may be happening too, based on a recent research report by Deutsche Bank's Australian equity strategy team. The... Show More

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The best time to switch to value

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

Different investment styles (such as value, growth, large cap, small cap) are suited to different stages of the investment cycle but it is often difficult to know ahead of time which one will perform best. Pioneering academic research by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, both professors at the University of... Show More

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Global fund manager survey on portfolio shifts - Can you feel it

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) Global Fund Manager Survey for November has just been released. The survey was conducted from 9 to 14 November, i.e. after the US election results were known. Responses were provided by 177 fund managers from around the world with combined assets under management... Show More

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There’s A New Sheriff In Town

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

The one thing markets and pollsters were not expecting, a Republican clean sweep of the Presidency, House and Senate, has happened. The disenfranchised industrial heartland of America deserted the Democrats and swung behind Donald Trump, even though the popular vote was close. Show More

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Back in black

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

As the world awaits the outcome of the US Presidential and Congressional elections, one important trend that has been largely overlooked during the period of election uncertainty is the return to profit growth of the US corporate sector. Show More

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Rockin’ in the Free World

Marcus Tuck
Marcus Tuck Mason Stevens

Sector rotation in the US equity market over the past month has been driven by a combination of rising bond yields, stronger US economic growth and political risks going into Tuesday’s US Presidential and Congressional elections. The chart shows the performance over the past month of the 10 sectors that comprise... Show More

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