Marcus Tuck

Marcus
Tuck

Head of Equities
Mason Stevens

Responsible for identifying domestic and international equity investment opportunities. 25 years of financial markets experience as an equity strategist, economist, analyst, portfolio manager and consultant.

Expertise

Maintain exposure to the mining sector

Marcus Tuck

The All Resources Index in trend terms has been outperforming the ASX 200 Index since the start of 2016. In this note we compare the performance of the big Australian mining stocks against their international peers on a common-currency basis, as well as comparing their current valuation metrics. Show More

resources mining ASX:AWC ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:S32

Copper leading resources higher

Marcus Tuck

The copper price is often regarded as a barometer of the world economy because of its wide-ranging applications in industrial production and electrical equipment. Copper is used everywhere from homes and factories, to electronics and power generation and transmission, so demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable indicator... Show More

ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:SFR

The only 6 stocks to pass our filters

Marcus Tuck

This time last year we published an article on Livewire called ‘Screening for low-risk equity investments’. Of the seven stocks we discussed, most did well, with an average gain of 90% across them. Livewire got in touch and asked us to reflect on the original research, and reapply the strategy... Show More

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This bull market isn't spent yet

Marcus Tuck

Three key indicators we focus on for a health check of the US equity market are: 1) The direction of US leading economic indicators (as a guide to future earnings); 2) The slope of the US yield curve (as an early warning of recession risk), and 3) The US equity... Show More

rates macro erp Yield curve forward indicators

Strategies to protect your portfolio

Marcus Tuck

Straw hats are cheaper to buy in winter, and the best time to repair a leaking roof is when it's not raining. In a similar vein, when market volatility is low and inexpensive, it's often a good time to buy some protection for equity portfolios to guard against "X-factor" downside... Show More

strategy ASX:BEAR ASX:BBOZ educational ASX"BBOZ ASX:AXW

Hypno Crypto – the strange world of cryptocurrencies

Marcus Tuck

The recent correction in the technology sector has been particularly volatile for the so called cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are a US$112 billion market that can turn over US$5 billion a day. Show More

Show me the way – US leading indicators and the sharemarket

Marcus Tuck

With US leading economic indicators still rising, a sustained fall in economic activity and the share market is not currently being signalled. Show More

Equity train could stay on the rails for now

Marcus Tuck

The market is expecting US growth to rebound from its temporary hiatus in the March quarter, and for China's growth to slow only modestly this year. If both of those things happen the equity train can stay on the rails for a while longer, with growth being neither too hot... Show More

inflation growth gdp China us rates macro

Risky Business - Calculating the US Equity Risk Premium

Marcus Tuck

Geopolitical concerns, delays to the Trump Administration’s planned fiscal stimulus, and benign US economic and inflation data have made bond markets more relaxed and equity markets more volatile. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield has rallied from a recent peak of just over 2.6% in March to about 2.2% now.... Show More

Masters of War – US Defence contractors

Marcus Tuck

When President Trump ordered the launching of 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles against a Syrian airbase on Friday, it sent the share prices of defence contractors higher. The Tomahawk cruise missiles, for example, are manufactured by Raytheon and sell for about US$1 million each. Show More

geopolitical risk us stocks

5 measures of market valuations, and what they're saying today

Marcus Tuck

There are several way of valuing the US stock market, such as a 12-month forward PE ratio for the S&P 500 index (currently 17.8x) and an estimate of the Equity Risk Premium (currently around 3.0%). Compared to historical averages, both of those measaures indicate a pretty full level of valuation. Show More

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An early warning signal for a bear market

Marcus Tuck

One of most reliable early warning indicators of an impending equity bear market is the shape of the US yield curve. When short-term interest rates are higher than long bond yields, it is a sign that monetary policy is tight enough to choke off growth in the economy and company... Show More

Beginning to see the light for emerging markets

Marcus Tuck

Similar to European equity markets, another part of the world where fearful perceptions have held back equity valuations is emerging markets. After being fairly range-bound from 2012 to mid-2015, fears of a hard landing for China’s economy impacted emerging markets in the second half of 2015 and early 2016. That... Show More

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Screening for low-risk equity investments

Marcus Tuck

When looking for relatively low-risk equity investments, companies with strong balance sheets are a good place to start the search. If they happen to be effectively debt-free with a net cash position, then even better. With no financial pressure on companies to service loans during business downturns, the risk of... Show More

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The Wall

Marcus Tuck

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index finally breaking through the 20,000 barrier last week to a record high, the state of US-Mexico relations sank to the lowest level in living memory, some say since the Mexican-American War of 1846-48 that followed the US annexation of Texas. Show More

Working for the Man - US Labour Market Outlook

Marcus Tuck

President Trump recently claimed he will be “the greatest jobs producer that God ever created”. Economists debate how much presidents actually influence job creation and President Trump is coming into office at a time when the US economy is already close to full employment in the opinion of the US... Show More

Livin' on a prayer

Marcus Tuck

The US economy is already in its eighth year of expansion, albeit one of sub-par GDP growth until recently. S&P 500 earnings are near all-time highs, as are equity indices and valuations. Goldman Sachs’ global strategy team points out that the US has followed a fairly typical equity cycle post... Show More

The long-awaited return of Australian earnings growth

Marcus Tuck

A significant turning point for the US stock market was reached in Q3 2016 with the return of positive year-on-year growth in US corporate profits. The long-awaited return of Australian earnings growth may be happening too, based on a recent research report by Deutsche Bank's Australian equity strategy team. The... Show More

ASX:AMC ASX:ALL ASX:FBU ASX:MQG ASX:RIO ASX:SUN Longform ASX:S32

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The best time to switch to value

Marcus Tuck

Different investment styles (such as value, growth, large cap, small cap) are suited to different stages of the investment cycle but it is often difficult to know ahead of time which one will perform best. Pioneering academic research by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, both professors at the University of... Show More

growth value small caps Longform Large Caps

Global fund manager survey on portfolio shifts - Can you feel it

Marcus Tuck

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) Global Fund Manager Survey for November has just been released. The survey was conducted from 9 to 14 November, i.e. after the US election results were known. Responses were provided by 177 fund managers from around the world with combined assets under management... Show More

equities fund managers asset allocation Longform US election

It’s a fair question about Jumbo’s economic moat. Whilst it’s true that the lion’s share of JIN’s revenue is Tabcorp-related lotteries business, it appears to be reasonably secure. In May 2017, JIN expanded its decade-long commercial relationship with Tatts Group, with an extension and expansion of its existing lottery reseller agreements. All current reseller agreements (NSW, Victoria, SA, NT and Fiji) have been extended for five years and then continue on a 12-month rolling basis beyond 2022. The relationship was further strengthened by Tatts subscribing for a substantial shareholding in JIN. Tabcorp is currently the second-largest shareholder in JIN (12.64%), which should encourage strong alignment of long-term interests. The former COO of Tatts is now the MD of Lotteries & Keno for Tabcorp, where JIN had a close relationship with the previous Tatts executives. A competitor, Lottoland, which offers derivative-style products on lottery outcomes, was recently banned from offering any products on the outcomes of Australian lotteries, further strengthening JIN’s competitive position. A small but fast-growing part of JIN’s business is Charity Lottery sales, which represents a key growth area away from traditional lottery offerings. Regards, Marcus

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