Matt Griffin

Small cap gold stocks have had a remarkable run over the past 5 years, fuelled by rising production, a high gold price, and strong levels of cash generation. However there have been clear winners and losers, and we see a few worrying trends emerging. In this article we take a... Show More

Hi Mads, unfortunately policy prevents me from talking about specific stocks on here. But fair to say there is more value in the juniors and developers - I'd be focusing on stocks that have delivered on recent guidance, can show a growing production profile, and are well funded.

On A golden opportunity or fool’s gold? -

Hi Carol. I can't find any websites which will indicate early or late reporters - there are some good sits which will show when companies are expected to report (eg., however to work out if they have changed from their usual reporting date you would need to go back and look through previous periods.

On The predictive power of analysing company reporting dates -

Hi Marcus, thanks for your comments and the good points you have raised. It's our view that western demand is likely to be relatively flat over coming years, with few new reactors coming online but also limited numbers being decommissioned. Many western countries are extending useful lives of reactors as they struggle with emissions targets and cheap base load power generation - France was an example of this in 2018 and I believe the same thing will occur in other countries. The growth in demand will really come from China which has potential to surprise on the upside. On supply, secondary supplies are in gradual decline and are expected to roughly halve over the next decade or so. You're right that Husab is not price sensitive, although the mine has had a number of issues in ramping up and is yet to prove it can consistently produce at nameplate capacity. An Olympic Dam expansion is a risk to increased supply however this has been talked about for a long time without any action. And yes, I expect that Kazatomprom production will come back relatively quickly, however the thesis of higher uranium prices is really about the 1/3rd of global supply that is loss making at current spot prices, and what price is required to incentivise production to restart once utility buying returns in a meaningful way - we firmly believe that price is >$40/lb. Happy to discuss further if you would like.

On Why 2019 could be uranium’s break out year -

Hi Dale, I think mine restarts will come back on line before new mines, given the capital required to start new mines will likely require a higher incentive price. The Honeymoon project has a lot of infrastructure in place and looks good as a potential project at a higher uranium price.

On Why 2019 could be uranium’s break out year -

Hi Frank. Cameco have some good long term sales contracts in place which means their received price for uranium this year will be around the US$36/lb mark. However their cash costs of production this year are around US$31/lb, so they made the decision that while the spot price is in the US$20's it makes more financial sense for them to use excess inventory and actually buy material on the spot market to deliver into their contracts. This will also help remove material from the market and help prices get back to a more sustainable level. The McArthur River mine they shut down is very high grade but quite difficult to operate given there is a lot of high pressure water underground and they need to freeze the ground before mining. It's therefore an all or nothing proposition - they aren't able to reduce production by say 50%, it's either running at capacity or not at all. I suspect this also means it might take quite a while to turn back on, and they would probably want quite a high price to commit the capital to a restart.

On Why 2019 could be uranium’s break out year -