In early 2017 we identified debt and the unsustainably high property prices as the key risks to the Australian economy. In particular we were concerned about the unwinding of the wealth effect as investors began to feel the pinch of a weaker property market. We believed this would manifest itself... Show More
In my time at University (which seems like a lifetime ago) I recall two types of lecturers: Those that guided the students towards what to expect at exam time, and those that didn’t. Show More
As the old saying goes; “one man’s trash is another man’s treasure”. And nowhere is this truer than the sometimes-scary world of deep value and contrarian investing. Some of the stocks mentioned here have fallen 80% or more from relatively recent highs, and have fallen off the radar of index... Show More
Very few activities in life are both worthwhile and easy, and investing is no exception. While jumping on the latest high-flying momentum stock might win you the support of your friends and colleagues, such a strategy is unlikely to be profitable long-term. “The ultimately most profitable investment actions are by definition... Show More
10 years into a bull market, and with most major indices showing triple-digit percentage gains from their lows, finding value is tough. Compounding the challenges, ‘value stocks’ by the traditional definition have underperformed throughout this period. Despite this, some value investors are still posting outsized returns. If history is any... Show More
Much has been made of the increased popularity of passive investing, and rightfully so. Markets have generated excellent returns over the long term, and index tracking Funds or ETF’s provide very low-cost exposure to highly diversified portfolios. However, in this wire, we explain what it has in common with investing... Show More
A few months ago we wrote on Livewire that the spot price of Uranium was far too low based on the fundamentals of the industry, and that it was like buying oil at $20/barrel. While prices have not moved higher yet, it is rare to see a commodity with so... Show More
Uranium stocks have been quietly gaining in recent months, however, we expect materially more from the sector as it continues to rationalise in the medium-term. To put the current price of uranium into terms more familiar: we believe it is trading at the equivalent of oil at US$20 per barrel. Show More
Whether it is companies that have experienced share price declines due to regulatory uncertainty, or industries that are generally out of favour, our best returns have historically come from recognising opportunities where others have decided that the issues are simply “too hard”. One sector that currently ticks all the (wrong)... Show More
Though Artificial Intelligence, and cutting edge technology isn’t often a space where we’d expect to find value; when a business is profitable, trading on less than four times current cash flows, and operates in a high growth industry, we think it’s worth paying attention. Show More
The small cap index is essentially a proxy for the market's appetite for growth, and a broad willingness to accept the risk associated with it. November saw the start of a rotation from small cap stocks into large caps triggered by a number of macro global events that created uncertainty... Show More
@Chris Vertullo. Thanks for your comments. As an orthopaedic surgeon yourself, I can understand why you would have a unique interest in a drug that promises to drastically alter the industry and delay the need for surgery as treatment for OA. To answer your queries one at a time: 1. Recent releases from Paradigm suggests that iPPS treats the underlying pathology of osteoarthritis by reducing inflammation, resolving the bone marrow edema lesions, and down regulating cartilage degrading enzymes. The link you provided is 8 years old, and affirms the drug’s effectiveness as a treatment. 2. Paradigm have patents across the first world for use of PPS in OA treatment. Additionally, Bene Pharma (the global leader in PPS production) have agreed to give sole rights to PAR for production from its facilities. I would suggest that this is as good a moat as one can ask for in the pharmaceutical industry. 3. I suspect that the effectiveness of iPPS treatment would negate the need for an additional anti inflammatory. 4. While opiates are not used in the treatment of OA per say, they are used for pain management. Insomuch as as iPPS reduces pain, comparing it to pain management drugs would be appropriate. If you have technical questions, I’m more than happy to put you in touch with someone who can answer them for you. Feel free to be in touch.
@Chez Spigelman: Initially we looked at creating a basket of nuclear energy based companies (looking for broad exposure to the theme). We've refined our position since and would be happy to have a conversation if you wanted to give us a call.
@Richard Vivian, you make a fair point. The cost of building a nuclear power station is materially higher than an oil/gas/coal plant. The advantage that nuclear energy has over the long term is that its highly efficient, it has low cost inputs, and its carbon footprint is incomparably smaller than other traditional base load energy sources. I think a simple look at global users of nuclear power is the best measure of value: France generates over 70% of their energy from nuclear, and have done for more than 50 years. Their carbon footprint and electricity bills are among the lowest in the developed world. As battery technology improves we may be able to have a discussion about comparing renewable sources, but we are not there yet. Nor can we know what advances will be discovered to improve traditional energy in the future.
@Hew Mills There are not a lot of ways to invest in the space. I'm not aware of many funds that have exposure to uranium at all. If you give me a call I'm happy to discuss how we built exposure in our Fund.