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Nicholas Sproats

One of Warren Buffett’s lesser known quotes is: “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked”. Like most of Warren’s sayings it’s an analogy for business. Everyone looks well equipped when we’re all standing on the sandbank at high tide (analogous to bull markets and... Show More

Nicholas Sproats

We all know people love bad news. We love bad news. Why? It creates opportunity. As Buffett says “I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful”. Show More

Nicholas Sproats

In assessing the property price outlook, it’s really just looking at first principles of supply and demand. From my perspective, there’s no ‘ah-ha’ statistic or ‘bucket of dead canaries’ as such. However, CoreLogic recently released figures that showed that across Australia’s capital cities there is 4.4 months’ worth of properties... Show More

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With residential property prices starting to misfire, we reached out to three experienced property investors for their perspectives on the market. We posed the question: “What do investors need to watch for in coming months, and why?” Read on below as to why you need to keep a hawk’s eye... Show More

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Expectations for Australian residential property prices have been tempered recently by Governor Lowe’s presentation, data including soft wages growth and slower price growth, and the proposed bank levy. Given this backdrop, Livewire reached out to three experts for their perspectives on the market, asking: What data point, or event, in... Show More

Nicholas Sproats

Heather Ridout (Australian Super Chairperson) has been banging the table on gender diversity at the board level of Australian companies, and right she should. Only 22% of Australia’s top 200 listed companies have women on their board – not a majority, not the Chair, just at least one – and... Show More

Nicholas Sproats

We constantly hear about the headwinds facing retail property. The headwinds, the headwinds, oh the headwinds – it’s like Tim Bailey got caught on loop. Lets face it, there aren’t many businesses that aren’t operating in headwinds - it’s called competition, it’s called capitalism – and for all those pedalling... Show More

Hi Mr T, I agree it's hard to get the data. That's kind of why I recommended to subscribers to ask their relevant fund managers. In terms of a longer time series many of these vehicles weren't listed then and as such I can't get the data, but I agree the longer the time series the better.

On Are you swimming naked? -

Hi Jerome, I'd refer back to my Chart 1 in a wire I wrote last year: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/property-goes-down-when-rates-go-up-right It's all about the cost of money. If you think rates are going back to where they were in 1973, or 1994, or any random year for the last 50 then I'd say any asset looks overvalued now. But the only way rates are going up is if inflation goes up and I don't forsee that as a problem in the short to medium term. Regardless, if you are wary of that, then you want to be in inflation hedged assets (eg real estate.....I'm obviously talking my own book here but it's true). Equities do look marginally over-valued on a cyclically adjusted PE basis when looking back 40 years, but as said it looks marginal. Look forward to our next coffee.

On Are you swimming naked? -

Actually Chris I majored in Economics at the University of Sydney. When we overlay inflation over the figure I quote above [to give a REAL return], only 1 of the 5 periods of positive price increases turns from positive to negative, and it still remains that the average total return of real estate in tightening economic and interest rate environments is overwhelmingly positive. I guess that's why people always say they like real estate as an inflation hedge because it captures rising prices in the leases.

On Property goes down when rates go up, right? -