The odds of winning Powerball is 1 in 134.5 million. Multiplied by the cost of the game ($1.20) means its only rational to play if the jackpot is over $161 million -- and that's if it isn't shared! In which case, no return on $60 saved is still a better probability-weighted outcome!

On Who really wants to be a millionaire? -

Looking at its past and its articulated, conservative strategy based on cash flow generation, we are confident the firm is able to provide the returns going forward to allow a certain payback on investment at current share prices. As the market becomes more sure of this, itsearnings multiple will re-rate accordingly. On this basis of fundamental investing, we would be quite happy buying Incitec at current levels. Contact me at

On Time to Pivot to Incitec (IPL) --- reporting monday -- at 12.5 times, what could go wrong -