Lithium and cobalt oversupply fears overblown

Paragon Funds Management

January saw volatility return to Lithium and Cobalt markets, both correcting on oversupply anxiety. Glencore announced that its Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) project Kamoto will expand its Cobalt output to 34ktpa by 2019 (~30% of CY19F global demand). This news impacted Cobalt stocks globally on near-term oversupply concerns. Show More

Join the conversation

Chinese policy brings cobalt into focus

Paragon Funds Management

Electric Vehicles (EVs) and their mass-market rollout plans continue unabated, with nearly all the major auto manufacturers either ramping up, building or expediting plans for large scale EV roll out. Fourteen megafactories are being built globally, with more planned by Tesla, VW and others across the globe. The global EV... Show More

Infrastructure stocks looking most attractive in 2 years

Paragon Funds Management

In a perfect world, we would identify a particularly attractive thematic, identify the best companies exposed to those themes through company meetings and our own internal research, and then let the rest of the market play catch up. In practice, however, sometimes our long-term themes persist while the ability to... Show More

AU$ gold hits new all-time highs

Paragon Funds Management

We wrote about our top-down gold investment thesis and the companies best placed to benefit in our February 2016 update. As stated previously, gold’s investment case has merit given the unprecedented level of global QE and currency debasement, and we have become increasingly constructive on gold given the return of... Show More

Lithium fundamentals continue to strengthen

Paragon Funds Management

Since the beginning of 2016, we have observed several key positive industry catalysts. Firstly, Tesla’s March 2016 Model 3 launch, boasting 325,000 orders and equating to US$14b+ of pre-sales in one week. Additionally, we've seen further commitments to building Lithium-ion battery mega-factories, with 12 mega-factories to be built by 2020.... Show More

Oil market update

Paragon Funds Management

Nine months ago Paragon Funds Management wrote about their oil bear market view on Livewire “OPEC initiates a price war; implications”(click the https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/25260 ). They discussed that the US shale revolution and OPEC inaction (reluctance to cut supply) had led to oil markets being oversupplied by ~1.5m bbl/day and with... Show More

Join the conversation

Paragon Funds Management: Macquarie capitalising on buoyant conditions

Paragon Funds Management

Macquarie is currently yielding a 4.6% forward dividend (March year-end FY16F), and based on our estimates is growing earnings at 30% CAGR for the three years to FY16F. Macquarie is taking advantage of buoyant conditions across key segments including 1) Asset Management, 2) Corporate & Asset Finance, 3) Commodities &... Show More

LNG: De risking one of the best emerging LNG export projects globally

Paragon Funds Management

We have written about LNG Ltd previously, outlining our reasoning behind investing in what remains one of the best emerging LNG export projects across the globe. We also wrote in December 2014 that we had closed out the last of the position at an average of $3.86/sh, largely avoiding LNG’s... Show More

HFR is looking to do 500ktpa of SOP but will be higher opex than AMN. And if you include the capex for HFR’s MOP mine it's much higher capex. In the last decade the industry has actually moved away from HFR's Mannheim production as this process actually manufactures more hydrochloric acid (a big issue) than SOP. Finally, HFR's assets are in Spain - a risky jurisdiction for permitting & development - and has a fully diluted market cap many multiples of AMN's.

On An advanced project in an undersupplied market -