Paragon Funds Management

January saw volatility return to Lithium and Cobalt markets, both correcting on oversupply anxiety. Glencore announced that its Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) project Kamoto will expand its Cobalt output to 34ktpa by 2019 (~30% of CY19F global demand). This news impacted Cobalt stocks globally on near-term oversupply concerns. Show More

Paragon Funds Management

Following cannabis’ notoriety and political-driven prohibition for almost a century, its cultivation and use is now progressively being legalised for medicinal use across the globe. The momentum and increasing acceptance of medicinal cannabis offers exceptional investment opportunities to a select list of high-calibre, well-funded, early-movers. Show More

Paragon Funds Management

Electric Vehicles (EVs) and their mass-market rollout plans continue unabated, with nearly all the major auto manufacturers either ramping up, building or expediting plans for large scale EV roll out. Fourteen megafactories are being built globally, with more planned by Tesla, VW and others across the globe. The global EV... Show More

Paragon Funds Management

James Hardie is an Australian manufacturer and global leader in fibre-reinforced cement. The business has been operating for 125 years producing products used in new residential construction, manufactured housing, repair & remodelling and other applications. Show More

Paragon Funds Management

My preferred commodity exposure is sulphate of potash (SOP) – not to be confused with the more common muriate of potash (MOP), which in is an oversupplied market. SOP makes up around 10% of the overall potash market, or ~6mtpa, (a ~US$3.6b pa market). SOP is a speciality fertiliser commodity... Show More

Paragon Funds Management

Since the beginning of 2016, we have observed several key positive industry catalysts. Firstly, Tesla’s March 2016 Model 3 launch, boasting 325,000 orders and equating to US$14b+ of pre-sales in one week. Additionally, we've seen further commitments to building Lithium-ion battery mega-factories, with 12 mega-factories to be built by 2020.... Show More

Paragon Funds Management

Nine months ago Paragon Funds Management wrote about their oil bear market view on Livewire “OPEC initiates a price war; implications”(click the https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/25260 ). They discussed that the US shale revolution and OPEC inaction (reluctance to cut supply) had led to oil markets being oversupplied by ~1.5m bbl/day and with... Show More

HFR is looking to do 500ktpa of SOP but will be higher opex than AMN. And if you include the capex for HFR’s MOP mine it's much higher capex. In the last decade the industry has actually moved away from HFR's Mannheim production as this process actually manufactures more hydrochloric acid (a big issue) than SOP. Finally, HFR's assets are in Spain - a risky jurisdiction for permitting & development - and has a fully diluted market cap many multiples of AMN's.

On An advanced project in an undersupplied market -