Paragon Funds Management

By adopting a thematic-led, fundamentally-driven high-conviction strategy that can profit from rising and falling share prices, Paragon aims to provide its clients with excellent long term returns regardless of market performance.

Expertise

Lithium and cobalt oversupply fears overblown

Paragon Funds Management

January saw volatility return to Lithium and Cobalt markets, both correcting on oversupply anxiety. Glencore announced that its Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) project Kamoto will expand its Cobalt output to 34ktpa by 2019 (~30% of CY19F global demand). This news impacted Cobalt stocks globally on near-term oversupply concerns. Show More

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The rise and rise of Medicinal Cannabis

Paragon Funds Management

Following cannabis’ notoriety and political-driven prohibition for almost a century, its cultivation and use is now progressively being legalised for medicinal use across the globe. The momentum and increasing acceptance of medicinal cannabis offers exceptional investment opportunities to a select list of high-calibre, well-funded, early-movers. Show More

ASX:CAN

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Government policy shifts drive EV demand

Paragon Funds Management

Our EV thematic has been discussed in previous articles, most recently in February 2017. Given the major developments in this space during September, we felt it timely to provide another update. Show More

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Global Lithium leader SQM to buy into Kidman's Mt Holland project

Paragon Funds Management

SQM (NYSE; US$10.4b market cap) last month announced its intention to buy-in to Kidman’s world-class Mt Holland (MH) project. SQM has confirmed it will develop MH as an integrated spodumene-refinery project, developing both the upstream mine and concentrator operation (essentially fully funded by SQM) and with a local downstream refinery. Show More

ASX:KDR

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3 Emerging technology companies with a global opportunity

Paragon Funds Management

In this wire we provide an overview on three emerging technology companies with the following attributes: 1: A globally unique technology offering with proven capabilities on the world stage; and 2: A high calibre management team that maintain absolute alignment and have established and built the company personally. Show More

ASX:UPD ASX:FBR ASX:AD8

Chinese policy brings cobalt into focus

Paragon Funds Management

Electric Vehicles (EVs) and their mass-market rollout plans continue unabated, with nearly all the major auto manufacturers either ramping up, building or expediting plans for large scale EV roll out. Fourteen megafactories are being built globally, with more planned by Tesla, VW and others across the globe. The global EV... Show More

Increasing share in a growing market

Paragon Funds Management

James Hardie is an Australian manufacturer and global leader in fibre-reinforced cement. The business has been operating for 125 years producing products used in new residential construction, manufactured housing, repair & remodelling and other applications. Show More

ASX:BLD ASX:JHX Longform US Housing ASX:EDE

Ageing consumer drives long-term growth at Challenger

Paragon Funds Management

Challenger is a diversified investment management firm that manages over $60b in assets. Today Challenger is focused on providing wealth creation solutions for those in the accumulation phase of superannuation and also reliable income streams for retirees. Show More

annuities retirement ASX:CGF Longform

An advanced project in an undersupplied market

Paragon Funds Management

My preferred commodity exposure is sulphate of potash (SOP) – not to be confused with the more common muriate of potash (MOP), which in is an oversupplied market. SOP makes up around 10% of the overall potash market, or ~6mtpa, (a ~US$3.6b pa market). SOP is a speciality fertiliser commodity... Show More

resources potash Longform ASX:AMN

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Infrastructure stocks looking most attractive in 2 years

Paragon Funds Management

In a perfect world, we would identify a particularly attractive thematic, identify the best companies exposed to those themes through company meetings and our own internal research, and then let the rest of the market play catch up. In practice, however, sometimes our long-term themes persist while the ability to... Show More

infrastructure ASX:SYD ASX:TCL Longform

AU$ gold hits new all-time highs

Paragon Funds Management

We wrote about our top-down gold investment thesis and the companies best placed to benefit in our February 2016 update. As stated previously, gold’s investment case has merit given the unprecedented level of global QE and currency debasement, and we have become increasingly constructive on gold given the return of... Show More

gold ASX:SBM Longform ASX:BLK AUD gold

Paragon Funds Management - The Song Remains the Same

Paragon Funds Management

In our January outlook note for 2016, we outlined several significant issues Show More

Lithium fundamentals continue to strengthen

Paragon Funds Management

Since the beginning of 2016, we have observed several key positive industry catalysts. Firstly, Tesla’s March 2016 Model 3 launch, boasting 325,000 orders and equating to US$14b+ of pre-sales in one week. Additionally, we've seen further commitments to building Lithium-ion battery mega-factories, with 12 mega-factories to be built by 2020.... Show More

2016 Outlook

Paragon Funds Management

In our December 2014 and January 2015 monthlies, we outlined a fairly muted prospect for equity markets in the year ahead. Global growth was slowing, led by China, and we were coming to the end of the US great experiment with Quantitative Easing. The negative impact the rising dollar would... Show More

Lithium is in an undisputed bull market

Paragon Funds Management

Demand for more efficient energy storage is an ongoing structural thematic we view will continue through the next decade. Lithium-ion batteries for consumer electronics, Electrical Vehicles (EV) and Electrical Energy Storage systems, will see Lithium demand grow at >10% cagr through to the end of decade to 300ktpa+. The major... Show More

Oil market update

Paragon Funds Management

Nine months ago Paragon Funds Management wrote about their oil bear market view on Livewire “OPEC initiates a price war; implications”(click the https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/25260 ). They discussed that the US shale revolution and OPEC inaction (reluctance to cut supply) had led to oil markets being oversupplied by ~1.5m bbl/day and with... Show More

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Investing in the secular growth of the mobile internet

Paragon Funds Management

The evolution of the mobile internet has been driven by the convergence of 3G infrastructure, cloud computing, social networking, video content, online commerce and the iPhone almost a decade ago. Today, we continue to believe that the drivers behind the mobile internet remain firmly in place. Cisco expects that the... Show More

The most crowded trade - Short FMG - and why we would not want to be short.

Paragon Funds Management

Background to the consensus Short FMG trade and why we are Long FMG. Show More

buy side brief the buy side brief ASX:FMG Longform

Paragon Funds Management: Macquarie capitalising on buoyant conditions

Paragon Funds Management

Macquarie is currently yielding a 4.6% forward dividend (March year-end FY16F), and based on our estimates is growing earnings at 30% CAGR for the three years to FY16F. Macquarie is taking advantage of buoyant conditions across key segments including 1) Asset Management, 2) Corporate & Asset Finance, 3) Commodities &... Show More

banks growth fund managers income investing ASX:MQG paragon funds

LNG: De risking one of the best emerging LNG export projects globally

Paragon Funds Management

We have written about LNG Ltd previously, outlining our reasoning behind investing in what remains one of the best emerging LNG export projects across the globe. We also wrote in December 2014 that we had closed out the last of the position at an average of $3.86/sh, largely avoiding LNG’s... Show More

small caps ASX:QAN ASX:LNG

HFR is looking to do 500ktpa of SOP but will be higher opex than AMN. And if you include the capex for HFR’s MOP mine it's much higher capex. In the last decade the industry has actually moved away from HFR's Mannheim production as this process actually manufactures more hydrochloric acid (a big issue) than SOP. Finally, HFR's assets are in Spain - a risky jurisdiction for permitting & development - and has a fully diluted market cap many multiples of AMN's.

On An advanced project in an undersupplied market -