Pete Wargent

The downside risks relating to Australia’s leveraged property market have been well documented, with the possibility of tighter lending rates on investment loans in 2017, and an oversupply of inner city apartments looming in Brisbane, Melbourne, and potentially Canberra. That said, we’ve known about the pipeline of apartments for a... Show More

Absolutely this is a key issue. Developments is much being skewed towards the new investor market, particularly offshore buyers - and particularly so in Melbourne and Sydney. We have changing demographics, but still we're building far too much high rise as the ABS data for 4+ storey units shows.

On Demographic waves in the Aussie housing market -

Good read DS. Resi construction may be trending higher in aggregate but new house building appears to have passed its cyclical peak which isn't so clever. Huge numbers of apartments underway, which is perhaps welcome from a construction spend perspective, but high-density apartment oversupply may introduce some systemic risk to housing markets too...

On Australian construction work completed falls in Q3, engineering drags: While it is clear that there is some rebalancing taking place, residential construction... -

Good question. The good news is it will have a long tail - while building approvals have passed their peak, commencements are still trending up quite strongly, so the construction cycle could easily have another 2-3 years to run. We will know more on January 15 when the next round of Building Activity data is released, so watch this space.

On As dust settles around the Labour Force data, a look at net immigration which continues to slide in 2014. Although short-term Chinese visitors to Australia... -