Pete Wargent

CEO AllenWargent Property Buyers - Sydney, Brisbane & London. CEO WargentAdvisory - powerful tactical analysis & leading indicators for fund managers & institutional clients. Real-time analysis: Australian economy, markets, real estate.

Expertise

Impacts of Labor’s proposed negative gearing and CGT reforms

Pete Wargent

We recently co-authored a detailed report with independent analysts RiskWise Property Research, following in-depth investigation, modelling and data analysis, assessing Labor’s proposed reforms to negative gearing and the capital gains (CGT) tax discount. Show More

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Requiem for a construction bubble

Pete Wargent

In this report, we have isolated two of the leading indicators in Australia’s economy, namely building approvals and money growth, and highlighted some key themes arising from our findings. Our analysis is independent and takes account of evidence through liaison with industry contacts, combined with data. Show More

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3 immediate implications of tighter lending standards

Pete Wargent

In our latest 50-page report for funds and institutional investors, Chemical Change, we’ve conducted a detailed consideration of shifts in mortgage lending standards, and the likely outcomes from these changes. Highlighted below are three immediate implications. Show More

Outlook 2018: A mixed bag for residential housing

Pete Wargent

We should expect to see variations around the country for residential housing in 2018. For example, the Hobart market is extremely tight and there will be ongoing price gains there, and some peri-urban regional markets in New South Wales & Victoria are tracking well. Overall, though, access to credit is... Show More

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Interest only loans: Cashflow pain ahead

Pete Wargent

With the flow of new interest-only lending limited to 30% of the total, some existing borrowers may be about to discover that they are unable to roll over their interest-only loans, and they will be forced to start repaying principal. Show More

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The uncertain road ahead for residential property

Pete Wargent

Given some recent potential headwinds, Livewire recently reached out for my thoughts on the residential property market, specifically what new drivers have emerged, what their implications are, and what data investors should be keeping a close watch on. Show More

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Mixed outlook for residential property in 2017

Pete Wargent

The downside risks relating to Australia’s leveraged property market have been well documented, with the possibility of tighter lending rates on investment loans in 2017, and an oversupply of inner city apartments looming in Brisbane, Melbourne, and potentially Canberra. That said, we’ve known about the pipeline of apartments for a... Show More

Prepare for non-settlements as record number of new dwellings hit the market

Pete Wargent

With record numbers of attached dwelling completions expected over the next two years, the key data point to watch will be new apartment non-settlements. During reporting season, non-settlements on new apartments were generally either in line with, or below, long run averages. However, with Australia’s major financiers reluctant to lend... Show More

Australia's apartment oversupply and associated risks

Pete Wargent

Over the next two years Australia's capital cities are due to see an unprecedented 231,129 units and apartments due to settle according to CoreLogic-RP Data research, with an associated risk of oversupply. The sub-regional data and disaggregated figures show that the high-rise sector plays host to the greatest risk, while... Show More

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Foreign capital helps to push household wealth higher

Pete Wargent

The ABS released its latest Finance & Wealth figures for Q2 2015 this week which showed household net worth surging to above $8.4 trillion in the June quarter. Show More

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Australia's "property boom" was really a Sydney boom

Pete Wargent

The ABS released its Residential Property Price Indexes for Q2 2015. Show More

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APRA crackdown bites across the board

Pete Wargent

With the monthly dollar value of investment loans having more than doubled since the beginning of 2012, the regulator APRA has become obliged to take action in order to cool the investor segment of the Australian property market. In the first 7 months of this calendar year the volume of... Show More

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Demographic waves in the Aussie housing market

Pete Wargent

With skilled migration often having favoured those in the 21-30 age bracket - and with the average age of the first homebuyer having increased over time - there is presently a relative dearth of people in the first homebuyer age brackets. Show More

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Building approvals breaking all manner of records

Pete Wargent

The latest Building Approvals figures from the ABS showed that the residential construction boom is set to break all manner of records. Show More

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Chinese to invest $60 billion in Australian housing

Pete Wargent

A new report from Credit Suisse estimates that Chinese investors will pump $60 billion of investment into Australian housing over the next 6 years, more than double that invested over the past 6 years at $28 billion. Show More

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Asian capital is impacting our property markets

Pete Wargent

A much debated subject over the past year, there is now compelling evidence that Asian capital is impacting our property markets in a number of different ways. Show More

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The decline of regional Australia?

Pete Wargent

This week the ABS released its latest Regional Population Growth figures. Show More

demographics australian property

The ABS released its Housing Finance data yesterday for January 2015 today, which showed a minor fall in lending in the month

Pete Wargent

The ABS released its Housing Finance data yesterday for January 2015 today, which showed a minor fall in lending in the month. However, in rolling annual terms the value of owner-occupier commitments continued to increase, up by almost 11 percent y/y as capital city homebuyers chase rising prices. Meanwhile the level... Show More

A long-held debate as to the health or otherwise of the residential construction boom was settled decisively today with records tumbling all over the place

Pete Wargent

A long-held debate as to the health or otherwise of the residential construction boom was settled decisively today with records tumbling all over the place. The ABS Building Approvals figures for January 2015 shattered all manner of records, with the rolling annual number of dwelling units soaring to easily the... Show More

As always, the ABS Private New & Expected capex release was interesting and instructive

Pete Wargent

As always, the ABS Private New & Expected capex release was interesting and instructive. Yesterday's figures showed that there is a gradual rebalancing towards non-mining investment, but to date this has not been enough to offset the downward trend in resources investment. Capex surveys suggest that total investment is heading... Show More

Absolutely this is a key issue. Developments is much being skewed towards the new investor market, particularly offshore buyers - and particularly so in Melbourne and Sydney. We have changing demographics, but still we're building far too much high rise as the ABS data for 4+ storey units shows.

On Demographic waves in the Aussie housing market -

Good read DS. Resi construction may be trending higher in aggregate but new house building appears to have passed its cyclical peak which isn't so clever. Huge numbers of apartments underway, which is perhaps welcome from a construction spend perspective, but high-density apartment oversupply may introduce some systemic risk to housing markets too...

On Australian construction work completed falls in Q3, engineering drags: While it is clear that there is some rebalancing taking place, residential construction... -

Good question. The good news is it will have a long tail - while building approvals have passed their peak, commencements are still trending up quite strongly, so the construction cycle could easily have another 2-3 years to run. We will know more on January 15 when the next round of Building Activity data is released, so watch this space.

On As dust settles around the Labour Force data, a look at net immigration which continues to slide in 2014. Although short-term Chinese visitors to Australia... -