Pete Wargent

Can we summarise the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Annual Report in 60 seconds? Sure, why not? The number of residential approvals to foreign buyers has been crippled over the past two years, from about 40,000 to 10,000. Show More

Pete Wargent

In this report, we have isolated two of the leading indicators in Australia’s economy, namely building approvals and money growth, and highlighted some key themes arising from our findings. Our analysis is independent and takes account of evidence through liaison with industry contacts, combined with data. Show More

Pete Wargent

We should expect to see variations around the country for residential housing in 2018. For example, the Hobart market is extremely tight and there will be ongoing price gains there, and some peri-urban regional markets in New South Wales & Victoria are tracking well. Overall, though, access to credit is... Show More

Pete Wargent

With the flow of new interest-only lending limited to 30% of the total, some existing borrowers may be about to discover that they are unable to roll over their interest-only loans, and they will be forced to start repaying principal. Show More

Pete Wargent

The downside risks relating to Australia’s leveraged property market have been well documented, with the possibility of tighter lending rates on investment loans in 2017, and an oversupply of inner city apartments looming in Brisbane, Melbourne, and potentially Canberra. That said, we’ve known about the pipeline of apartments for a... Show More

Pete Wargent

Over the next two years Australia's capital cities are due to see an unprecedented 231,129 units and apartments due to settle according to CoreLogic-RP Data research, with an associated risk of oversupply. The sub-regional data and disaggregated figures show that the high-rise sector plays host to the greatest risk, while... Show More

Pete Wargent

With the monthly dollar value of investment loans having more than doubled since the beginning of 2012, the regulator APRA has become obliged to take action in order to cool the investor segment of the Australian property market. In the first 7 months of this calendar year the volume of... Show More

Absolutely this is a key issue. Developments is much being skewed towards the new investor market, particularly offshore buyers - and particularly so in Melbourne and Sydney. We have changing demographics, but still we're building far too much high rise as the ABS data for 4+ storey units shows.

On Demographic waves in the Aussie housing market -

Good read DS. Resi construction may be trending higher in aggregate but new house building appears to have passed its cyclical peak which isn't so clever. Huge numbers of apartments underway, which is perhaps welcome from a construction spend perspective, but high-density apartment oversupply may introduce some systemic risk to housing markets too...

On Australian construction work completed falls in Q3, engineering drags: While it is clear that there is some rebalancing taking place, residential construction... -

Good question. The good news is it will have a long tail - while building approvals have passed their peak, commencements are still trending up quite strongly, so the construction cycle could easily have another 2-3 years to run. We will know more on January 15 when the next round of Building Activity data is released, so watch this space.

On As dust settles around the Labour Force data, a look at net immigration which continues to slide in 2014. Although short-term Chinese visitors to Australia... -