Can we summarise the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Annual Report in 60 seconds? Sure, why not? The number of residential approvals to foreign buyers has been crippled over the past two years, from about 40,000 to 10,000. Show More
Investment Theme
In early 2018 I wrote on Livewire that the year ahead would be a mixed bag for housing, as tightness in markets like Hobart contrasted the negative outlook for Sydney, which appeared to be at a market-top. As the year played out, a number of the concerns raised came to... Show More
The elephant in the room for residential property is the ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins. While the recent rise in funding costs has been well documented, this dynamic is persisting. Show More
We recently co-authored a detailed report with independent analysts RiskWise Property Research, following in-depth investigation, modelling and data analysis, assessing Labor’s proposed reforms to negative gearing and the capital gains (CGT) tax discount. Show More
Collections
An increasing number of data series have been turning negative for Australia’s housing market. Auction clearance rates, building approvals, housing credit growth, and even house prices themselves appear to have topped. Anecdotes are popping up of units being resold far below their original purchase value, or with significant incentives offered... Show More
In this report, we have isolated two of the leading indicators in Australia’s economy, namely building approvals and money growth, and highlighted some key themes arising from our findings. Our analysis is independent and takes account of evidence through liaison with industry contacts, combined with data. Show More
In our latest 50-page report for funds and institutional investors, Chemical Change, we’ve conducted a detailed consideration of shifts in mortgage lending standards, and the likely outcomes from these changes. Highlighted below are three immediate implications. Show More
We should expect to see variations around the country for residential housing in 2018. For example, the Hobart market is extremely tight and there will be ongoing price gains there, and some peri-urban regional markets in New South Wales & Victoria are tracking well. Overall, though, access to credit is... Show More
With the flow of new interest-only lending limited to 30% of the total, some existing borrowers may be about to discover that they are unable to roll over their interest-only loans, and they will be forced to start repaying principal. Show More
Given some recent potential headwinds, Livewire recently reached out for my thoughts on the residential property market, specifically what new drivers have emerged, what their implications are, and what data investors should be keeping a close watch on. Show More
Absolutely this is a key issue. Developments is much being skewed towards the new investor market, particularly offshore buyers - and particularly so in Melbourne and Sydney. We have changing demographics, but still we're building far too much high rise as the ABS data for 4+ storey units shows.
Thanks Dave - some of the unit values have certainly left me scratching my head, especially iron ore!
Good read DS. Resi construction may be trending higher in aggregate but new house building appears to have passed its cyclical peak which isn't so clever. Huge numbers of apartments underway, which is perhaps welcome from a construction spend perspective, but high-density apartment oversupply may introduce some systemic risk to housing markets too...
A bit of a surprise! Will be interesting to see what happens to commodity prices on Monday.
Good question. The good news is it will have a long tail - while building approvals have passed their peak, commencements are still trending up quite strongly, so the construction cycle could easily have another 2-3 years to run. We will know more on January 15 when the next round of Building Activity data is released, so watch this space.