Uday Cheruvu from PM Capital here, replying to Oliver Minchin's question on Altium. The reasons for decreasing piracy are not price-related but the fact that updates to systems have become more important to users. Updates allow designers access to newer features for designing electronic boards which reduces design time. This strategy of frequent updates which improve functionality is assisting to drive down piracy. Secondly, Chinese companies are exporting their designs overseas. This also forces them to buy licences in order to send authenticated designs to customers.
Hi Ada, Yes you are correct, increased regulation will drive drown profitability and put weaker players out of business, adding further add to the demand – supply imbalance. Our original thesis when we invested Japara was that the government would see this reality and either increase funding or deregulate the industry (from a pricing perspective) and charge consumers more. However, the actions by government have gone in the other direction – ie increased regulation and lower funding – so every player in the industry is being hurt. We do not see this changing in the medium term. Regis has investments in retirement villages. Japara has also flagged that they will expand into this area and invest more capital in retirement villages. Estia’s capacity to grow is constrained due to its historic acquisition-led strategy that impinges on its capital generation. So the actions by the listed players suggest they too believe that diversifying out of aged care makes economic sense. As a result, our thesis is that there is more downside to go with these companies before earnings find a sustainable base. This, in addition to the royal commission and the potential curve balls it can throw up, limit our interest in these companies for the time being - Uday.
Ben, Thanks for your comments and you are correct that Las Vegas, particularly in the 1990’s overstepped the mark in the transition to a ‘family destination’. However, to clarify, in regards to ‘family friendly’, we are referring to the opening of the market to a new percentage of the population that visit these gaming centres for reasons other than gambling; mass market focused, non-gaming entertainment and retail experiences. On visiting both Macau and Las Vegas, it’s clear that these two gaming centres are at different points of the continuum in their evolution. In regards to the gaming element, there is also a palpable transition towards mass-market gaming from the dominance of “high-rollers” in Macau. In our view this is a natural and secular transition of the middle-class in Asia in addition to the improvement in access/infrastructure and may likely continue for decades to come. We hope this clarifies our position and thanks again for the discussion point, regards PM CAPITAL.
Absolutely James - we are hosting a roadshow from 12-2pm today at the Intercontinental if you would like to come along. Arranger and lead manager will be Ord Minnett and the other JLM's are CBA Equities, Morgans and Taylor Collison.