Roger Montgomery

Roger
Montgomery

Chief Investment Officer
Montgomery Investment Management

Roger Montgomery founded Montgomery Investment Management, www.montinvest.com in 2010. Roger brings more than two decades of investment, financial market experience and knowledge. Roger also authored the best-selling investment book, Value.able.

Expertise

Jeremy Grantham says beware the market ‘melt-up’

Roger Montgomery

Alas, there’s no magic signal to tell us when this market could savagely correct. The latest note of caution comes from famed US investor, Jeremy Grantham. He believes we are seeing a ‘melt-up’ in the stock market – the final stages of a great bubble near to bursting. Show More

equity markets correction

Investors beware: the warning light has begun to flash amber

Roger Montgomery

Warren Buffett recently observed that markets can quickly turn from green to red, without pausing at yellow. It was a veiled warning that when valuations are at extremes – as they are today – it doesn’t take much to trigger something serious. Show More

interest rates volatility

Dividends. What’s all the fuss?

Roger Montgomery

In the last few days Opposition Labor Leader Bill Shorten has proposed a radical transformation of dividend imputation. Putting aside his mistaken belief that his voters are “Aussie Battlers”- when in fact they are hard-working small business owners and contractors, many of whom receive franked dividends from their business endeavors... Show More

dividend tax

Which retailers are surviving the digital disruption?

Roger Montgomery

Digital disruption is hitting the retail sector harder than most. But not all retailers have been affected to the same extent. Recent research by Citi sheds light on the winners and losers this latest reporting season. Show More

reporting season australian retailers

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Make market corrections your ally

Roger Montgomery

Recent experience excepted, corrections are typically more frequent and regular than many would prefer, so investing should not occur without acceptance of this. That said, it’s important to prepare, first by making the right investments, and secondly by adopting the right temperament. Show More

ASX:COH ASX:CSL ASX:RHC ASX:HSO ASX:A2M ASX:AFY ASX:PPH

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Are you bullish or bearish heading into 2018?

Roger Montgomery

Only time will tell if a bull or bear market awaits investors in 2018. There’s plenty of ammunition for both scenarios. I think it will pay investors to look closely at the boundaries marked by the bull and bear cases, and treat them like the flags between which they must... Show More

bull market bear market economic outlook

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New global equities fund targets 4.5% distribution

Roger Montgomery

Montgomery Global’s investment team is launching a new Exchange Traded Managed Fund that will be quoted on the ASX next month. Montgomery Global Equities Fund (ASX: MOGL) will share the investment strategy of the successful Montgomery Global Fund, which delivered an after fees return of 30.38% since inception, beating its... Show More

global investing Sponsored Wire

Hold ‘em or fold ‘em? The 2 choices facing investors today

Roger Montgomery

Right now, investors are facing two options: invest in the market’s momentum, while acknowledging that low returns are likely; or step aside, given the risk of low returns and higher volatility. Of late, we’ve chosen the latter option, as we are convinced it is the rational approach. But many investors... Show More

global markets Australian markets

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Four lessons for retailers who want to survive

Roger Montgomery

The increasing challenges faced by our retailers are well documented. But from adversity can come opportunity, provided a business is prepared to innovate. And from the US comes the story of a retailer that did innovate, and has done more than just survive – it has thrived. Show More

ASX:JBH australian retailers NASDAQ:AMZN

Active versus passive when prices are extremely stretched

Roger Montgomery

There’s a pithy marketing one-liner that has almost single-handedly produced a multi-billion dollar index-fund and ETF industry. It goes something like this; ‘Most active fund managers underperform the index.’ Show More

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Why we’re happy to swim against the ‘new paradigm’

Roger Montgomery

You may have noticed there’s a new paradigm being discussed in investment circles – that inflation and interest rates may never rise again. This paradigm has been accompanied by a wave of irrational exuberance, with prices of various assets breaking records by the day. At Montgomery, we are concerned this... Show More

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Real growth in real estate

Roger Montgomery

We have long been supporters of the REA Group (ASX: REA) story with the company a longer term holding in both our domestic and global funds. Initially we were attracted to the very high rates of return on equity and little or no debt – a function of the company’s... Show More

Red flags are everywhere, making us anxious about this market

Roger Montgomery

According to the Bank of International Settlements, there are now more margin loans supporting buying in the US stock market than during the tech boom of 1999/2000. And those loans are chasing an ever-narrowing band of tech stocks on the back of a ‘fear of missing out’. This is just... Show More

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Why investing in fads can end in tears

Roger Montgomery

Back in the 1960s, a group of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange called the Nifty Fifty grabbed the attention and dreams of a generation of savvy investors. As we know, investing in the Nifty Fifty ended badly for many of them, and showed the downside of investing... Show More

Why we need to switch our investment focus to China

Roger Montgomery

Recently, some of the best investments in our global funds have been in Chinese companies like Tencent and Alibaba. And that’s hardly surprising. After all, in the words of the ex-Singapore leader, Lee Kuan Yew, China is now “the biggest player in the history of the world”. Show More

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Which is a better investment: Property or shares?

Roger Montgomery

In this wire, Andreas Lundberg Senior Analyst at Montgomery Investment Management, tackles the question of how an investment property would measure up if analysed using an equity analysis framework: Show More

equities property investment property

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Why Montgomery funds' largest position (by far) is cash

Roger Montgomery

In value investing, patience can be a virtue, and we think holding cash will pay off. But, of course, not everyone will agree with us. Nobody knows how long it will be before value emerges broadly, it might be worth examining a selection of comments made by central bankers and... Show More

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REA will win in all property markets

Roger Montgomery

Conventional wisdom would suggest that in a softening property market, any company exposed to property would suffer operationally. While this may be true for developers and builders we don’t believe it is true for REA Group. We believe REA is a quality business that offers competitive advantage and benefits whether... Show More

Energy: who will be the winner – the cheapest supplier?

Roger Montgomery

By now, we’re all well versed about Amazon disrupting retail, Aldi disrupting supermarkets and fintechs disrupting banking. However, the most significant disruption is occurring right under our noses without us really noticing. When a technology advances, bringing down its price, it opens the technology to new markets. Keep that cycle... Show More

Hold the phone... How are the Telcos?

Roger Montgomery

The telecommunications sector endured a horrible year in 2016 with slumping share prices reflecting the uncertainty of the viability of various business models ahead of the completion of the NBN rollout. Downgrades, writedowns and capital raisings are just some of the events shareholders themselves have had to endure. Show More

ASX:TLS ASX:TPM ASX:VOC

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It is true that the best businesses are those that have a competitive advantage and the most valuable competitive advantage is the ability to charge a higher price and cause people to still cross the road to buy that product. Consumer brands are often used as examples of this and A2 milk has achieved the ability selling what is basically milk. The question has always been about the price of the stock and the barriers to entry. If you believe that the company can continue to grow in the future, as fast as it has in the past, then the price might in fact be cheap. If however you believe that normal market and competitive forces will produce more modest earnings growth than the price is implying, the stock is expensive. By definition (we don’t own the stock), we believe the latter.

On Make market corrections your ally -

Thank you for sharing your view. Different views are precisely what makes a market, and indeed, we could be wrong.  You are quite right when you point out that if your scenario transpires, the P/E would not be 40 times. Thank you again for providing the counter view.

On CSL: What the market missed -

Hi Carlo, you make a very good point. I too have been seeing flyers most weeks at a lower price. Price wars aren't great either (for the customer yes!)

On Hold the phone... How are the Telcos? -

Hi Glenn, we wrote our thoughts on our site about VTG. Even though the weighting of VTG in our funds was relatively minor, we are nevertheless enormously disappointed.

On Hold the phone... How are the Telcos? -