In our piece titled ‘Is this the Next Credit Corp?’ in May 2017, we made the case for why we considered PNC to be the standout amongst emerging companies on our radar. At the time the share price was trading at $2.13, but it has since increased by around... Show More
I have to GASP when I look at the current valuations of some of the new generation disruptors; we are very clearly in bubble territory. And as with all bubbles, we don’t know when it will end but we do know what happens when it does. Show More
S32 boasts the best balance sheet of any big-cap resource stock globally, and we continue to believe that the discount to its peer group is unwarranted. The shares traded noticeably weaker leading up to the reporting date, and while this is always a cautionary signal, we held the view that... Show More
Viva’s listing on the 13th of July was less than overwhelming, opening at $2.43 and closing the day at $2.40 - versus its issue price of $2.50. At $4.8bn, it was the largest IPO since Medibank, and the largest non-Government IPO in Australia’s history. And this would appear to be... Show More
It’s not possible – or at a minimum exceptionally rare – to be able to buy a good company at a good price in a good market. Investors have to be prepared to sacrifice one of these ingredients. Our strong preference is to forgo the latter. In Australian Finance Group... Show More
The Katana Australian Equity Fund (KAEF) is a long-only, actively managed investment fund that invests in a range of Australian listed companies. Since inception in December 2005, it has outperformed the All Ordinaries index by 163.7%, or 7.21%p.a. net of fees. Show More
Historically, this time of the year is a terrific time to buy shares in NAB, Westpac and ANZ. None better to be exact. For nearly 2 decades, buying these 3 banks at the beginning of March and selling them at the end of April has been a winning trade. Show More
Whilst abnormal losses flagged in the first half pulled the statutory profit into the red, Santos’s core Net profit after tax (NPAT) at US$336m was 5% ahead of our forecast of US$323m. It was also above January analyst consensus forecasts, but these were subsequently revised upwards to US$348m leading into... Show More
The well-worn saying that the markets take the stairs up and the elevator down applies to the current correction more than most. Whilst it doesn’t provide any specific consolation, it should remind investors that the current panic is not new and in fact it is the way that we expect... Show More
It is rare that a company rallies 5% post announcing a forecast after tax loss of $1.2 billion. But perhaps when the bar is set as low as it was for QBE, this is a comparatively good outcome! Show More
The chronology of events this past 24 hours is rather curious and provides somewhat of a conundrum as to how to play the current machinations. Santos has stated today that on the 14th of August the company received a confidential, non-binding, conditional and indicative proposal to acquire all the shares... Show More
As a professional investor, it may surprise some to hear that when it comes to investing, most of the time I lack clarity. Genuine, unequivocal, definitive clarity. Show More
In the true tradition of denial, we have maintained our position in Santos, and in fact, have added a modest amount over the past 12 months. Whilst it has been a particularly challenging period for both the company and investors, there are growing signs that the ship has been righted... Show More
We think the single best result from this reporting season was Australian Finance Group (AFG), which delivered a 33% increase in underlying NPAT and a 15% increase in dividend. Show More
Oscar Wilde once wrote: ‘Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes'. Based on that definition, I am a very ‘experienced’ investor. Over the past 22 years advising clients and the past 12 years managing money professionally, I have made all the usual mistakes and a few unusual ones... Show More
Credit Corp listed in September 2000 at 50c per share. Based on the closing price of $17.62, this represents capital growth of 3,424%. Additionally, the company has paid $3.33 (660%) in fully franked dividends. Here’s our case for the company we consider most likely to be the ‘next Credit Corp’.... Show More
Perhaps the most important theme to emerge from recent bank reporting was that capital generation was stronger than anticipated as indicated by the CET1 ratios at, or around the ~10% level. This was predominantly due to a reduction in risk weighted assets. Why is this significant? Well in effect it... Show More
We recently attended the well supported Capital Economics (CE) Conference on The Outlook for Global Growth. In total there were more than 90 slides and charts presented. At the risk of over-simplification, 6 key points stood out to us: Show More
We often lose sight of what drives markets. It’s a question as complex as it is simple. We can become lost in information, research and opinions, but ultimately we need to re-centre on this critical question: what drives markets? Show More
With the attention continuing to focus on the day to day machinations of ROPEC (Russia-OPEC), there has been a lack of awareness as to some of the structural changes that are taking place in the underlying supply fundamentals. Show More
To quote Matt Kidman, the Cashflow Statement is the P+L on truth serum! Follow the cash; record cash collections and record net operating cash from operations. Beyond that, i would also point you to the tier 1 auditor, increasing payment plan book and high level of recovery (over a greater mainframe) which indicate that the amortization rates are conservative.
GASP (Growth At a Stupid Price) to a tee.
Not disputing the quality of the earnings (one of the 10 key criteria we use internally); it is the price that you are paying for this earnings stream that is not sustainable.
A good question and one that highlights a lot of the misconceptions around this company. Firstly its worth noting that despite fluctuations in housing prices, actual total credit growth has only been negative once in the past 2 decades. But even if credit growth was to turn negative There are at least (4) ways that AFG can continue to grow profits: 1. Increasing the share of their higher margin white label and even higher margin securitisation products 2. Push into SME lending where they have a fraction of the market compared to mortgages 3. Adviser growth ; since listing this has increased from 2200 to 2900; the BRC has added even further pressure on lenders (banks) to ensure that they have the highest level of compliance; banks prefer to deal with large aggregators such as AFG as they have the best internal controls; more advisers will be driven towards larger aggregators and AFG is the largest 4. AFG is actively working on FINTECH and as the largest player they have the largest IT budget; early days but they are not asleep.
We too are avoiding infrastructure plays at this point in the cycle. In our view, the 2 main drivers of infrastructure stocks are 1) comparative yields and 2) cost of their (substantial level of) debt. Both of these are transitioning from tailwinds to headwinds.
Hello Johan, Yes AML has certainly cemented its position as the #1 cobalt related play. Exceptional drilling results in terms of grades, widths and consistency.
Clarity and wisdom.
Beware projects with eye-catching high grades but no width or tonnage. Most of our work on Canadian/North American cobalt plays has left us particularly unimpressed at intersections measuring 1-2 metres or less. This is not gold mining! AML pregnant with newsflow over next 3 months. CLA also moving up our list.
AML is towards the very top of our shortlist and we are meeting with the company today to progress our research. Keen to hear what investors like and why?
A nice take on this and Chart #3 in particular is worth highlighting - ie that over the longer term the volatility of equity income is lower than that of cash
Fully concur Nigel; the 4 big banks represent nearly 1/3 of the ASX100 and a staggering 46% of the ASX20. That means that every ETF based on the ASX100 is pumping nearly 30c in every dollar into 4 banks, and worse for an ETF based on the ASX20. Investors are nervous about investing in the banks at this stage of the cycle, yet they willingly invest in some ETFs that are simply replicating this exposure.
AFG can be added to this list? Market Cap $280m but was through $300m last week.
Great piece; very insightful and certainly worth taking notice of
All of the above, albeit the competitors will need to space their NIM expansion so as to avoid the perception of collusion etc.
Atlas does indeed face greater challenges than FMG, the most pronounced of which is the mode of transportation and associated costs. At this stage its a watching brief.
Yes correct. Whilst 'anchoring' can be a dangerous psychological weakness, the whole thesis of this piece is that if it is the oil price that has driven the weakness, then when the oil price rebounds the weakness will abate. This is predicated upon the central tenet that it is the oil price that has driven the weakness in the STO share price - not anything related to the company itself.