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Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

FNArena is a supplier of financial, business and economic news, analysis and data services.

Oz Construction Cycle: The Impact Is Now

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Not a day goes by without at least one economist, or journalist, pointing towards the housing cycle in Australia with the message: the cycle has peaked. Certainly, recent data support the thesis, at least for high density dwellings, but not so for other segments of the domestic housing market. With... Show More

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Reporting Season Monitor: The Final Verdict

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

The FNArena Reporting Season Monitor takes the form of a spreadsheet that contains ratings and consensus price target changes along with brief summaries of the collective responses from FNArena database brokers for each individual stock. To access the final spreadsheet providing coverage of all 310 stocks that we have monitored... Show More

FNArena Reporting Season Monitor: Week 2 - August 2017

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Welcome to the FNArena Reporting Season Monitor for the August result season 2017. The Monitor reports ratings and consensus price target changes, along with brief summaries of the collective responses, from FNArena database brokers for each of the 300+ stocks. Week 2 is now available with coverage of 34 stocks. Show More

FNArena Reporting Season Monitor: Week 1 - August 2017

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Welcome to the FNArena Reporting Season Monitor for the August result season 2017. The Monitor reports ratings and consensus price target changes, along with brief summaries of the collective responses, from FNArena database brokers for each of the 300+ stocks. Week 1 is now available with coverage of 11 stocks. Show More

It's all about corporate profits

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

US corporate profits are in an upturn, according to proprietary leading indicators from Morgan Stanley and Citi. Thus US equities should remain in an uptrend too, all else being equal. Alas, for investors in Australia, the dynamics domestically are not the same, and that is putting it mildly. Over here... Show More

Don't Be Fooled By Appearances

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

May 2017 has pushed equity indices in Australia back to levels last seen in March and February, erasing in full the April advance, but as has been the case on so many occasions in years past, face value index movements are not telling the full story of what is happening... Show More

May, The Month Of Broker Downgrades

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

...Meanwhile in the background, hidden from investors' attention which seems focused on bank levies, Trump controversies, central bank intentions and yet another terrorist act in the UK, stockbrokers in Australia have turned May 2017 into a month of downgrades. The first three weeks generated no less than 70 downgrades versus... Show More

Mayday, Mayday. But For Whom?

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Most commentators still talk about "the market", but there hasn't been a general trend in the Australian share market since 2013. Instead, investors have had to deal with moving parts and segments that do not always trend in synchronicity. Now the calendar says "May" and investors have become jittery. The... Show More

Telstra Is not the next BHP

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Beware the dividend stock for which the share market starts anticipating a significant deterioration in operational dynamics and thus, eventually, a reduction or even removal of the dividend. It happened to prior stalwarts such as Metcash, Fleetwood, Origin Energy, even to BHP Billiton and Woodside Petroleum. One look at price... Show More

NextDC: The Coming Of Age Of A Cloud Infra Story

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

It sure has been a roller coaster ride for true believers in the cloud infrastructure story with shares in NextDC (NXT) first rising some 176% in less than two years to subsequently fall off a cliff when investors switched to greener prospects among miners and banks in the second half... Show More

Quality Is Making A Come-Back

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

Look closely, and investors will see that quality stocks are making a comeback after being left by the wayside in the Trump-inspired reflation trade last year. CSL is trading around $128. Ramsay Health Care is back around $70. Amcor is well above $15, and InvoCare is approaching its all-time high... Show More

FN Arena Reporting Season Monitor - 88 stocks covered

Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

The FNArena Reporting Season Monitor takes the form of a spreadsheet that contains ratings and consensus price target changes along with brief summaries of the collective responses from FNArena database brokers for each individual stock. Readers are reminded that it matters not what profit/loss result is posted by each company,... Show More

Interesting observation, in particular the break in trend performance since 2012. I think the answer lies within the fact the share market since has been guided by macro forces such as gradual derating for banks, five-year long downward slide for commodities prices, a fall-of-the-cliff for crude oil, significant shift towards small caps away from large caps, then the reflation trade in 2016, then came bonds movements (& fear), not to mention FX and geopolitical, and, of course, the general derating of bricks and mortar retailers. None of such macro considerations form part of stockbroking analysts' individual stock assessments. Oh, did I mention the period of Expensive Defensives? I think, Tim, if your observation/analysis shows one thing it is that the Australian share market has been in the grip of such broad macro themes since 2012 and that makes individual stock recommendations less reliable.

On How should you read a broker report? -

Disappointment of Q1 is one thing. Disappointment in the composition is another. Now Q2 numbers are being scaled back too. That's the real story behind the Q1 disappointment

On Ignore the US GDP numbers -

Hi Jordan, I get a bit tired of hearing that gold is such a great protection against inflation. History shows this is way too simplistic as a statement. I agree that gold's fortunes are determined by many factors and we both probably agree on the fact that many statements about gold are too simplistic. No harm intended. As a matter of fact I am amongst those who advocate investors should always consider having some exposure, in line with how comfortable/uncomfortable one feels about the world. Anyway... gold... it can be the subject of hours of long debates and discussion...

On If its obvious, its obviously wrong, is one of my favourite sayings when it comes to markets. On that score, perhaps nothing is more pertinent to the gold... -

Fiercely disagree with your view. Gold is a rather unreliable protector against inflation - was there inflation in the nineties? Yes, there was!- but history shows, like the 1970s, that gold jumps to the fore during times of high inflation. High inflation is not just inflation. This whole gold=inflation protector is not supported by historical evidence. It's a mass-delusion, though oft repeated (but that still doesn't make it correct)

On If its obvious, its obviously wrong, is one of my favourite sayings when it comes to markets. On that score, perhaps nothing is more pertinent to the gold... -

James, The highest cash balance was at 26% in Sep 2011. Over the past 1.5 years the cash portion has remained between 18-20%. Unfortunately, we do not have references pre-GFC (as we only started this survey in 2011) but I am confident cash levels would have been a lot lower in those days. I still think 20% cash is a lot and probably reflective of the cautious mindset of investors post-GFC. We haven't seen this lower than 18% as yet, and that's a telling stat too, in my opinion.

On They say equities are currently climbing the wall of worry -

James, the market is 100% CERTAIN that BC Iron will be forced to cut its dividend next year. Just goes to show, drawing up tables at face value can make for some nice value traps

On No stabilisation in sight as yet -

James, that's because, unlike smaller pure plays, BHP and RIO offer capital management options plus div support

On No stabilisation in sight as yet -