Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
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FNArena Reporting Season Monitor: Week 2 - August 2017
Welcome to the FNArena Reporting Season Monitor for the August result season 2017. The Monitor reports ratings and consensus price target changes, along with brief summaries of the collective responses, from FNArena database brokers for each of the 300+ stocks. Week 2 is now available with coverage of 34 stocks. Show More
FNArena Reporting Season Monitor: Week 1 - August 2017
Welcome to the FNArena Reporting Season Monitor for the August result season 2017. The Monitor reports ratings and consensus price target changes, along with brief summaries of the collective responses, from FNArena database brokers for each of the 300+ stocks. Week 1 is now available with coverage of 11 stocks. Show More
It's all about corporate profits
US corporate profits are in an upturn, according to proprietary leading indicators from Morgan Stanley and Citi. Thus US equities should remain in an uptrend too, all else being equal. Alas, for investors in Australia, the dynamics domestically are not the same, and that is putting it mildly. Over here... Show More
Don't Be Fooled By Appearances
May 2017 has pushed equity indices in Australia back to levels last seen in March and February, erasing in full the April advance, but as has been the case on so many occasions in years past, face value index movements are not telling the full story of what is happening... Show More
May, The Month Of Broker Downgrades
...Meanwhile in the background, hidden from investors' attention which seems focused on bank levies, Trump controversies, central bank intentions and yet another terrorist act in the UK, stockbrokers in Australia have turned May 2017 into a month of downgrades. The first three weeks generated no less than 70 downgrades versus... Show More
Mayday, Mayday. But For Whom?
Most commentators still talk about "the market", but there hasn't been a general trend in the Australian share market since 2013. Instead, investors have had to deal with moving parts and segments that do not always trend in synchronicity. Now the calendar says "May" and investors have become jittery. The... Show More
Telstra Is not the next BHP
Beware the dividend stock for which the share market starts anticipating a significant deterioration in operational dynamics and thus, eventually, a reduction or even removal of the dividend. It happened to prior stalwarts such as Metcash, Fleetwood, Origin Energy, even to BHP Billiton and Woodside Petroleum. One look at price... Show More
NextDC: The Coming Of Age Of A Cloud Infra Story
It sure has been a roller coaster ride for true believers in the cloud infrastructure story with shares in NextDC (NXT) first rising some 176% in less than two years to subsequently fall off a cliff when investors switched to greener prospects among miners and banks in the second half... Show More
Quality Is Making A Come-Back
Look closely, and investors will see that quality stocks are making a comeback after being left by the wayside in the Trump-inspired reflation trade last year. CSL is trading around $128. Ramsay Health Care is back around $70. Amcor is well above $15, and InvoCare is approaching its all-time high... Show More
Feb Reporting Season: Final Verdict
February 2017 was the corporate reporting season that cemented the general come-back of large cap, Blue Chip stocks over their smaller sized peers on the ASX. Show More
FNArena Reporting Season Monitor – 241 stocks covered
The FNArena Reporting Season Monitor takes the form of a spreadsheet that contains ratings and consensus price target changes along with brief summaries of the collective responses from FNArena database brokers for each individual stock. Show More
FN Arena Reporting Season Monitor - 88 stocks covered
The FNArena Reporting Season Monitor takes the form of a spreadsheet that contains ratings and consensus price target changes along with brief summaries of the collective responses from FNArena database brokers for each individual stock. Readers are reminded that it matters not what profit/loss result is posted by each company,... Show More
Monitoring 316 stocks through reporting season
Welcome to the FNArena Reporting Season Monitor for the February result season 2017. The Monitor reports ratings and consensus price target changes, along with brief summaries of the collective responses, from FNArena database brokers for each of the 316 stocks. How much a result exceeded or fell short of stock... Show More
The Best Profit Prospect for the ASX In Years
The somewhat lackadaisical market sentiment leading into the February reporting season stands in sharp contrast with the hefty profit upgrades by analysts over the past four months. Depending on whose numbers we take as guidance, average profit growth (EPS) for the Australian share market this financial year increased over that... Show More
The Market's Changing Narrative
For right or for wrong, the market's narrative has changed and changing trends and dynamics have swiftly created winners and losers across the Australian share market. Show More
Fool's Gold? Know Thy Enemy!
Many an investor has been unpleasantly surprised by the rapid deflation in the price of gold bullion. At face value: it simply doesn't make much sense. Gold is supposed to be a safe-haven when uncertainty grips financial markets. It's supposed to be a hedge when inflation is picking up. Yet,... Show More
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Trump Is The 'One Step Backwards'
Draw a long term trend line through history and you'll find progression is the key word, but it happens slowly and there are constant interruptions and throw-backs. For example; did you know Oman only officially abandoned slavery in 1970? Or that the last regional government in Switzerland to succumb to... Show More
Energy Stocks And Market Optimism
The world never believed that crude oil priced below US$30/bbl was a longer term feature. How about US$60/bbl instead? Share prices for Woodside Petroleum, Oil Search, Santos and the likes therefore never priced in absolutely Armageddon scenarios, as opposed to mining companies. In recent weeks oil prices have surged on... Show More
The Future Has Arrived In Australia
Plenty of reasons as to why investors' attention (and money) has been directed towards the smaller end of the ASX. It is here that juicy returns have awaited the more daring adventurers. It is also here that Australian investors have the opportunity to invest in tomorrow's future (instead of in... Show More
FNArena Reporting Season Monitor - Final update (316 stocks covered)
Reporting season tends to reveal weaknesses and strengths among ASX-listed entities. It's not just about delivering on expectations. The best performers beat expectations and force analysts into lifting projections for the years ahead. This is why those companies' market outperformance can last up to three months after their report. On... Show More
Disappointment of Q1 is one thing. Disappointment in the composition is another. Now Q2 numbers are being scaled back too. That's the real story behind the Q1 disappointment
James, yes this is nitpicking, but 19.8% year-to-date? That looks more like the return since mid-2014 to me?
On A review of the total returns across asset classes in 2015 -
Daniel, within the framework of what can possibly become the next unintended consequence of Fed reducing global liquidity I think your observations/predictions direct attention to one possible outcome. Well done
Thanks James, I had an incling you (and others on LiveWire) would like it ;-)
Thanks James, I had an incling you (and others on LiveWire) would like it ;-)
Thanks James, I had an incling you (and others on LiveWire) would like it ;-)
Hi Jordan, I get a bit tired of hearing that gold is such a great protection against inflation. History shows this is way too simplistic as a statement. I agree that gold's fortunes are determined by many factors and we both probably agree on the fact that many statements about gold are too simplistic. No harm intended. As a matter of fact I am amongst those who advocate investors should always consider having some exposure, in line with how comfortable/uncomfortable one feels about the world. Anyway... gold... it can be the subject of hours of long debates and discussion...
Fiercely disagree with your view. Gold is a rather unreliable protector against inflation - was there inflation in the nineties? Yes, there was!- but history shows, like the 1970s, that gold jumps to the fore during times of high inflation. High inflation is not just inflation. This whole gold=inflation protector is not supported by historical evidence. It's a mass-delusion, though oft repeated (but that still doesn't make it correct)
James, The highest cash balance was at 26% in Sep 2011. Over the past 1.5 years the cash portion has remained between 18-20%. Unfortunately, we do not have references pre-GFC (as we only started this survey in 2011) but I am confident cash levels would have been a lot lower in those days. I still think 20% cash is a lot and probably reflective of the cautious mindset of investors post-GFC. We haven't seen this lower than 18% as yet, and that's a telling stat too, in my opinion.
On They say equities are currently climbing the wall of worry -
James, the market is 100% CERTAIN that BC Iron will be forced to cut its dividend next year. Just goes to show, drawing up tables at face value can make for some nice value traps
James, that's because, unlike smaller pure plays, BHP and RIO offer capital management options plus div support
Very interesting on the back of the Boral transaction that was announced on Friday. Interesting to see how that progresses in the view of the ACCC. I would suggest there is 50% chance that the merger/consolidation goes through given that bricks in general as a construction material are on the decline.
On Peter Quinton, our Head of Research Services, advises a BUY recommendation on CSR Limited (CSR) -