Equities
Scott Shuttleworth

Buying undervalued stocks is traditionally the way investors seek to deliver returns over the long term. At Vega Capital, we utilise a differentiated way of looking at the markets in the United States and discuss it in today’s blog. There are two overarching algorithms we utilise, the first uses macroeconomic... Show More

Education
Scott Shuttleworth

In my last blog, I provided an overview of Vega Capital’s model for identifying and pre-empting recessions in the United States. Last Thursday (at WeWorks Martin Place), I presented a talk on how our model would have approached the Great Depression and other recessions. The former is what I’ll be... Show More

Scott Shuttleworth

Statistically speaking a 10 to 20 per cent correction should occur about once a year (averaged out over time). Hence to see one shouldn’t be such a great surprise...but when it occurs, how do we handle it? Show More

Scott Shuttleworth

As Peter Lynch once famously said “You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets”. Today I’m going to discuss some ways in which investors can protect their portfolios from downside risk. Show More

Scott Shuttleworth

Over the past few weeks, you may have noticed President Trump’s rhetoric has centred around trade and resulted in the escalation of tensions between the US and other economic powers of the world. Many investors are wondering what downside risk they might be exposed to and whether a recession is... Show More

Equities
Alex Cowie

The chaos of reporting season makes a good case against markets being efficient. It will take weeks, if not months, to fully parse the recent data download of many hundreds of reports, and to also process views gleamed from the ensuing company roadshows. Reporting season can thus generate a long... Show More

Hi Ricky, thanks for your question. From the data I've looked at, I can't see the inversion itself creating the effects in line with the theory you're suggesting. The theory itself is fine, I've just seen no evidence to back it up as far. As always, I'm happy to be proven wrong if you can bring some analysis to my attention. In terms of the 'better sources of data', I don't normally go into exactly what we use or how we use it. As you would expect, we save our best IP for our investors. But generally speaking, there are 3 data sources we look at before waving the red warning flags. i) Money supply ii) Debt/interest rate stress iii) Employment levels Only 1 variable (money supply) has triggered a warning sign as far. We're cautious on markets because the other two aren't far from triggering.

On Yield curve inversion – what it means -