In my last blog, I provided an overview of Vega Capital’s model for identifying and pre-empting recessions in the United States. Last Thursday (at WeWorks Martin Place), I presented a talk on how our model would have approached the Great Depression and other recessions. The former is what I’ll be... Show More

Let’s start by defining what a recession actually is. Google’s dictionary defines it as ‘a period of temporary economic decline during which trading and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters’. In short, we’re looking for some sustained contraction in GDP. So... Show More

In my last Livewire post, I commented that The Vega Fund would be looking closely at economic data over the coming months to determine whether it should remain long (and weather out what I believe is a temporary correction) or whether going short would be a viable option. Show More

Statistically speaking a 10 to 20 per cent correction should occur about once a year (averaged out over time). Hence to see one shouldn’t be such a great surprise...but when it occurs, how do we handle it? Show More

With markets pulling back over the past few weeks, many investors are wondering whether this is the beginnings of a bear market. Today I wanted to discuss these trends and how I’d approach them. Show More

How can investors generate returns regardless of which way the market moves? In today’s article, I review the unique process which Vega Capital uses to achieve this goal. Show More

Today I wanted to provide some depth on how we use VIX products to manage risk in The Vega Fund portfolio. As far as we know, we’re the first fund in Australia to hedge in this particular fashion and hence some clarity is warranted. It’s not the only tool in... Show More

As Peter Lynch once famously said “You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets”. Today I’m going to discuss some ways in which investors can protect their portfolios from downside risk. Show More

Over the past few weeks, you may have noticed President Trump’s rhetoric has centred around trade and resulted in the escalation of tensions between the US and other economic powers of the world. Many investors are wondering what downside risk they might be exposed to and whether a recession is... Show More