Shane Oliver

The period August to October is a time for anniversaries of financial market crises – the 1929 share crash, the 1974 bear market low, the 1987 share crash, the Emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, and of course the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Show More

Shane Oliver

Investing can be frustrating and depressing at times, particularly if you don’t understand how markets work and don’t have the right mindset. The good news is that the basics of investing are timeless, and some have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is both insightful... Show More

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Shane Oliver

Investing is often seen as complicated. And this has been made worse over the years by the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices, regulations and rules around investing, the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets and the expanding... Show More

Hi Gregary True but there are two complications: In history booms or more specifically bubbles get defined by their busting..if they don’t bust then they don’t get defined as a bubble no matter how much their prices went up. Secondly the busting can occur via a long period of weak prices - so they end up falling in real prices or versus wages say but without necessarily crashing in nominal terms. Aust home prices arguably did this from the mid 70s into the mid 90s. Thanks for your comment. regards Shane

On Will Australian House Prices Crash? -

Hi Tristram Lots have asked me that. I used to be able to in the AMP Plaza. My soy and linseed roll with cheese and tomato only cost $5.30...but it got closed for a rebuild in November and I have been making my own because everywhere else had rich gourmet sandwiches. I think sandwiches in service stations are still around $5...anyway I take your point. $10 a week won’t buy much regards Shane

On Dissecting the latest budget -

Hi Alex Thanks. They are consistent and start with the same price data. The final chart relates to total returns. Its based on the same nominal home price data that was used to derive the real price line in chart 3 (yes it is 3% real pa). All I have then allowed for is a compounded rental yield (which used to be much higher than it is now) and allowance for the costs of maintaining an investment property to give a net return index. I don’t have the data in front of me but its something like: 3% real price gain+3% inflation+7%yield -2%pa =11%pa (averaging over the whole period since 1926)

On Falling Sydney & Melbourne home prices – is this the crash? -