Shane Oliver

Shane joined AMP in 1984 and is Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy. Shane has extensive experience analysing economic and investment cycles and what current positioning means for the return potential for different asset classes.

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21 great investment quotes

Shane Oliver

Investing can be frustrating and depressing at times, particularly if you don’t understand how markets work and don’t have the right mindset. The good news is that the basics of investing are timeless, and some have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is both insightful... Show More

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Dissecting the latest budget

Shane Oliver

The 2018-19 Budget will be the last before the next election (due by May 2019) and so had to provide pre-election goodies but in a way that keeps the return to surplus on track. Thanks to an improvement in the budget position since the Mid-Year review, of around $7bn per... Show More

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4 reasons why rates will be on hold into 2020

Shane Oliver

While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21... Show More

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Falling Sydney & Melbourne home prices – is this the crash?

Shane Oliver

Australian capital city home prices fell 0.2% in March, their fifth monthly fall in a row. This has brought annual growth down to 0.8% from 11.4% in May last year. Most of the recent weakness relates to Sydney and to a less extent Melbourne. Show More

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The Australian economy – five reasons growth will continue

Shane Oliver

For the last few years the Australian economy has been meandering between 2-3% growth. This remained the case through last year with December quarter GDP up just 0.4%, and annual growth of 2.4% as a bounce a year ago dropped out. In the quarter growth was helped by consumer spending... Show More

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Australian’s love affair with debt – how big is the risk?

Shane Oliver

If Australia has an Achille’s heal it’s the high and still rising level of household debt that has gone hand in hand with the surge in house prices relative to incomes. Whereas several comparable countries have seen their household debt to income ratios pull back a bit since the Global... Show More

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Outlook 2018: Still in the “sweet spot”, but expect more volatility ahead

Shane Oliver

2018 is likely to remain favourable for investors, but more constrained and volatile. Read on for my thoughts on what the key global themes are likely to be in the year ahead. Show More

2018 Outlook Series

Will Australian House Prices Crash?

Shane Oliver

A common narrative on the Australian housing market is that it’s in a giant speculative bubble propelled by tax breaks, low interest rates and “liar loans” that have led to massive mortgage stress and that it’s all about to go bust, bringing down the banks and the economy with it.... Show More

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5 great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)

Shane Oliver

The low interest rates of recent times along with periodic turmoil in investment markets has provided us with a reminder of the importance of the income (cash) flow or yield an investment provides. It’s particularly important for those relying on investment income to fund their living expenses. As with all... Show More

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Five great charts on investing

Shane Oliver

Investing is often seen as complicated. And this has been made worse over the years by the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices, regulations and rules around investing, the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets and the expanding... Show More

5 reasons to be upbeat on the outlook

Shane Oliver

Of course, there will be the usual corrections and bumps along the way. However, there are five reasons to be upbeat about the overall return outlook for the year ahead. First, global growth is solid. Business conditions indicators – such as surveys of purchasing managers (Purchasing Managers Indexes or PMIs)... Show More

Turn down the noise!

Shane Oliver

There has been a lot of noise in the last financial year with the election of President Trump, Brexit, and European elections. With a reasonable global growth outlook for the new financial year, we encourage investors to focus on a well-diversified portfolio with a growth bias. Global share markets and... Show More

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Nine jokes about Economists

Shane Oliver

As my first manager used to tell me “forecasting is difficult because it concerns the future”. The difficulty of getting economic forecasts right is reflected in the long list of jokes about economists and their forecasts. Here are some gems: Show More

Five reasons for optimism

Shane Oliver

Share markets have had a great run and are arguably due a decent (5% or so) correction as a degree of investor complacency has set in. The latest scandals around Trump along with various other risks – North Korea and the ongoing march of Fed rate hikes – could be... Show More

3 risks to the downside for the AUD

Shane Oliver

In January 2016 the Australian dollar fell to just above $US0.68, its lowest level since 2009 and down 38% from its 2011 high. But since then, after a brief rebound, it has been stuck in a range between $US0.72 and $US0.78, defying our expectations for a decline. This note looks... Show More

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Budget: Pragmatism and fairness rule

Shane Oliver

The 2017-18 Budget has much to make it popular. In fact, the goodies make it almost feel like a pre-election rather than a post-election budget. The transformation from the austerity to end “the age of entitlement” of the 2014 budget to the “fairness, security and opportunity” of this Budget has... Show More

Healthier global growth underpins markets

Shane Oliver

Despite numerous geopolitical threats (Eurozone elections, tensions between the US and China, North Korea, etc.), worries about the demise of the so-called "Trump trade" and shares being overbought and due for a correction at the start of the year, share markets have proved to be remarkably resilient with only a... Show More

RBA likely on hold well into 2018

Shane Oliver

The RBA provided no surprises following its April board meeting leaving the official cash rate on hold at 1.5%.The RBA remains more confident regarding global growth, sees Australian economic growth as moderate, regards the labour market as being mixed, sees a gradual rise in underlying inflation and continues to see... Show More

21 great investment quotes

Shane Oliver

The basics of successful investing are timeless, and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these into a sentence or two that brings them to life in a way that’s easy to understand. Just considering them helps bring us back to the basics of investing which is... Show More

How big a threat is the $US200 trillion global debt mountain?

Shane Oliver

Excessive debt tends to be at the centre of most scare stories regarding the investment outlook – whether they relate to China, public debt in developed countries, corporate debt in the US or Australian household debt. Show More

Hi Tristram Lots have asked me that. I used to be able to in the AMP Plaza. My soy and linseed roll with cheese and tomato only cost $5.30...but it got closed for a rebuild in November and I have been making my own because everywhere else had rich gourmet sandwiches. I think sandwiches in service stations are still around $5...anyway I take your point. $10 a week won’t buy much regards Shane

On Dissecting the latest budget -

Hi Alex Thanks. They are consistent and start with the same price data. The final chart relates to total returns. Its based on the same nominal home price data that was used to derive the real price line in chart 3 (yes it is 3% real pa). All I have then allowed for is a compounded rental yield (which used to be much higher than it is now) and allowance for the costs of maintaining an investment property to give a net return index. I don’t have the data in front of me but its something like: 3% real price gain+3% inflation+7%yield -2%pa =11%pa (averaging over the whole period since 1926)

On Falling Sydney & Melbourne home prices – is this the crash? -