Shane Oliver

Dividends are great for investors. They augur well for earnings growth, provide a degree of security in uncertain times, are likely to comprise a relatively high proportion of returns going forward and provide a relatively stable source of income. Including reinvested dividends, the Australian share market has surpassed its 2007... Show More

Shane Oliver

The housing cycle and house prices always incite high interest in Australia. Until recently it was all about surging prices and poor affordability – particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the last year it’s turned into how far prices will fall and what’s the impact on the economy. Global issues... Show More

Shane Oliver

Many investors have been rattled by falls in share markets and are fretting about what the new year may hold.But there are a number of reasons to suggest that after a weak 2018, 2019 will be better, and that a well-diversified portfolio should deliver reasonable returns. Show More

Shane Oliver

Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to see top to bottom falls of around 20% as credit conditions tighten, supply rises and a negative feedback loop from falling prices risks developing. Other cities will perform better having not seen the boom of the last few years. Property investors... Show More

Shane Oliver

The period August to October is a time for anniversaries of financial market crises – the 1929 share crash, the 1974 bear market low, the 1987 share crash, the Emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, and of course the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Show More

Shane Oliver

Investing can be frustrating and depressing at times, particularly if you don’t understand how markets work and don’t have the right mindset. The good news is that the basics of investing are timeless, and some have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is both insightful... Show More

Hi Bill. Thanks for your comments but actually I did refer to that in the first point regarding dividends in relation to “poor hubris driven investments”. Regards Shane

On 7 reasons dividends are cool -

Hi Lyn. In terms of the 8% ...I am not a tax expert but for most taxpayers their franking credits would be well below their taxable income so for a fund with a lot of accumulators franking credits will still be received in full as now. Regards Shane

On 7 reasons dividends are cool -

Hi Peter. I would assume that would be the case..but would need to see what a new ALP Gov says if they win. Regards Shane

On 7 reasons dividends are cool -

Hi Gregary True but there are two complications: In history booms or more specifically bubbles get defined by their busting..if they don’t bust then they don’t get defined as a bubble no matter how much their prices went up. Secondly the busting can occur via a long period of weak prices - so they end up falling in real prices or versus wages say but without necessarily crashing in nominal terms. Aust home prices arguably did this from the mid 70s into the mid 90s. Thanks for your comment. regards Shane

On Will Australian House Prices Crash? -

Hi Tristram Lots have asked me that. I used to be able to in the AMP Plaza. My soy and linseed roll with cheese and tomato only cost $5.30...but it got closed for a rebuild in November and I have been making my own because everywhere else had rich gourmet sandwiches. I think sandwiches in service stations are still around $5...anyway I take your point. $10 a week won’t buy much regards Shane

On Dissecting the latest budget -

Hi Alex Thanks. They are consistent and start with the same price data. The final chart relates to total returns. Its based on the same nominal home price data that was used to derive the real price line in chart 3 (yes it is 3% real pa). All I have then allowed for is a compounded rental yield (which used to be much higher than it is now) and allowance for the costs of maintaining an investment property to give a net return index. I don’t have the data in front of me but its something like: 3% real price gain+3% inflation+7%yield -2%pa =11%pa (averaging over the whole period since 1926)

On Falling Sydney & Melbourne home prices – is this the crash? -