Lessons learnt since 1987

Simon Doyle

This month will mark 30 years since I started working in financial markets. While I don’t remember exactly what happened on my first day, I do remember being inherently nervous starting work just a few weeks after the 1987 stock market crash. While I don’t intend to detail a laundry... Show More

Investing in a high-risk, low-return market

Simon Doyle

Current valuations across most assets tell us that future returns will be low and the risk of a significant correction is high. None of this means markets will collapse tomorrow, but it does mean that there is limited cushioning to absorb a shock. Show More

What do low return forecasts mean for funds?

Simon Doyle

The more realistic the view of what may lie ahead, the better the decisions we’ll make to prepare for it. Let’s consider our current forecasts. Our forecast methodology has been calibrated to capture both underlying structural trends and cyclical valuations. We compress these into a 3-year timeframe and express risk... Show More

Why is volatility so low?

Simon Doyle

It is widely acknowledged that the outlook for economies and markets is unusually uncertain, given the huge political changes that we are witnessing globally. It is also widely acknowledged that most assets are expensive and priced to offer sub-normal prospective returns. Why then is volatility (the VIX) so low? History... Show More

How might 2017 look for investors?

Simon Doyle

While 2016 was generally a positive years for investors, politics and economics provided big surprises and highlighted how intertwined politics and economics have become. As we head into 2017, the macro picture of reasonable economic growth, falling unemployment and low inflation belies a more complex micro-picture where extreme policy measures... Show More

The Risk-Return Matrix: Where does it say to invest?

Simon Doyle

The challenge for investors is that valuations on most assets are at best fair, and, in most cases more demanding, meaning the risk of loss in many assets is elevated. In the context of our investment framework, there are limited assets offering appealing returns for the risk embedded in owning... Show More

What's the outlook for shares and bonds in 2017?

Simon Doyle

As 2017 looms, investors are questioning the role of central bankers and their ability to reignite growth. US President-elect Donald Trump, meanwhile, is promising fiscal stimulus. The shift of focus from monetary to fiscal policy has driven US stocks to record highs, sparked a sell-off in bonds and yield-orientated sectors... Show More

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