Macro
Stephen Koukoulas

There is no doubt the Australian economy was weaker in late 2018 than it was during the first half of the year. It seems to have kicked off 2019 on a similarly weak note. Recent economic news has been unambiguously poor and it follows the dismal GDP results released last... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

The Trump trade wars threaten the global economy. This is not an exaggeration or headline-grabbing claim, but an economic slump based on a US-inspired global trade war is a distinct and growing possibility as it would dislocate global trade flows, production chains and bottom line economic growth. Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

There seems to be a theme developing in the Australian market at the moment. We have further evidence of a cooling in the housing market, and a coincidental lift in the value of the ASX hinting that those with money to invest are avoiding the ultra-expensive, low yielding housing market,... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

Much is being made of the record level of household debt in Australia. The media is full of stories screaming about the risks of debt for the economy. Here I look at the truth about our debt. Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

The recent Dun and Bradstreet Business Expectations survey confirmed a softening in business expectations for the economy into the second half of 2017. As a summary of the survey findings, as Australia grabs the world record for uninterrupted economic growth, the signs are mainly pointing downwards. Business performance for the... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

Morrison is hoping that the economy will miraculously pick up, leading to a surge in tax revenue which feeds into the estimate of a return to budget surplus in 2020-21. Suffice to say, any shortfall in what would be a strong performance in the economy will lead to yet another... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

The Australian dollar has been rising strongly over the past six months and not just against the US dollar where this morning it is hovering just under 78 cents. The Aussie dollar is also buying over 0.72 euros, the highest level it has been since early 2015 and is up... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

I am going to sell both Dow futures (hopefully around 20,080) and S&P500 futures (at around 2,293). This new trade to be instigated at or near open on Monday 30 January and is based on my view and is not investment advice in any way. Please contact your financial advisor... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

It’s that time of the year – making the calls for the year ahead for the economy and financial markets. Key themes for the year include; ongoing sluggish growth in Australia with house prices set to weaken markedly, possibly fall. US (and most global) stock markets to fall, perhaps quite... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

The Australian economy is in reasonable shape as 2016 draws to a close. Real GDP growth is around three per cent, inflation is 1.5 percent while the unemployment rate is hovering near 5.75 percent. To be sure, it would be desirable if growth was a little stronger and unemployment lower,... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

The recent labour market data threw up a few disconcerting facts about the economy. Since the July 2016 election, employment has fallen by 25,650 people despite growth of over 70,000 in the working age population. The Coalition government plan for 1 million jobs in 5 years is in tatters. Since... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

With just two months to go to assess the absurd forecast from RBS analyst Andrew Roberts at the start of the year to “sell everything”, it gives me little pleasure to note that his forecast continues to be humiliatingly wrong. If Roberts has any clients left, they would be reeling... Show More

Stephen Koukoulas

The interest rate cutting cycle appears to be over. This is not because inflation is accelerating – on the contrary, inflation remains low and looks like staying low for some time. Rather, interest rates are on hold is because the RBA is looking at a range of indicators that are... Show More

True: It is more on a protest or expose against the extreme, sensationalist 'forecasts' that get huge coverage and no one ever back-checks the result. Housing crash, recession looms etc etc. Different to making a call and being wrong. We all do that every week and my bank account lives and dies by that. Cheers

On A further update on that 'Sell Everything' call... -