Tamar Hamlyn

Tamar leads interest rate and macro strategies for Ardea Investment Management and is responsible for strategic views on the economy and financial markets. Tamar co-founded Ardea Investment Management.


Bond issuance to underpin rising market opportunities

Tamar Hamlyn

The Australian Commonwealth budget announcement overnight has confirmed the size and trajectory of the Australian government bond market. The Australian Office of Financial Management’s (AOFM) updated issuance plans also indicate that bond supply will remain persistent. This acts to underpin capacity in the bond market for large investors seeking access... Show More

bonds budget Ardea Investment Management

Risk measure at GFC Levels - Should Investors be Worried?

Tamar Hamlyn

The Bank Bill – Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) spread is a keenly watched risk measure in fixed income markets that has experienced a significant widening in recent months, both in Australia and in overseas markets (where LIBOR is the equivalent rate to the Aussie bank bill rate). Show More

risk rates libor bank bill

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More trouble on the way?

Tamar Hamlyn

This time last year we wrote on Livewire that inflation and volatility charts were the ones we were watching most closely. Following the recent surge in both measures, Livewire got in touch to ask what we expect from here, and what investors can do about it. Show More

inflation volatility rates this time last year ardea

Global Fixed Income markets: a fragile balance

Tamar Hamlyn

Recently, I returned from a study tour of the world capitals of global macroeconomic policy. This report includes my observations from the road after meeting with key policy making officials, as well as economists and market participants across the US, EU, UK, China and Japan. In short, the current market... Show More

Trump Election... the impact so far

Tamar Hamlyn

Ardea have been monitoring markets closely over the past 24 hours as you can imagine, and while the volatility has been significant, we think overall these events are favourable for markets and good for investors. Show More

Longform donald trump Trump US election

Hi Han, correct, a reduction in demand for USD would increase supply, thus lowering rates when looked at in isolation. In addition, reduced demand for USD would also likely lower the exchange rate against other currencies. Thus for investors to be willing to hold USD, they would likely require higher interest rates to compensate. On top of this, a reallocation of reserves would also reduce demand for US bonds, including Treasuries. Reduced demand for bonds means a lower price, and thus a higher yield. This would raise long-term interest rates as well. The combined effect of these multiple influences can be difficult to gauge, but at a very general level reduced demand for an asset means a higher rate of interest must be paid to attract investors.

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