Tim Kelley

Tim is the Portfolio Manager of The Montgomery Fund – a concentrated, All-cap Australian equity fund that aims to generate capital growth and income. Montgomery focuses on owning high quality businesses and generating superior returns.

Expertise

An odd period for quant in the Australian equity market

Tim Kelley

Many investment managers use quantitative screens to focus their attention on the investment opportunities that are most likely to reward close study, and we are certainly among them. Over the years we have built software tools that make it easy for us to analyse the historic performance of a wide... Show More

Why we see value in Telstra

Tim Kelley

Over the last two years, the ASX200 accumulation index has delivered a total return of around 25% which has been a pretty solid result for equity investors generally. During that same period, however, Telstra shares have delivered a negative total return of close to 30%, making Telstra the weakest performer... Show More

ASX:TLS

Is the Coles demerger a good idea?

Tim Kelley

Recently, Wesfarmers Limited (ASX: WES) announced its intention to demerge the Coles business into a separate ASX-listed company. While WES will retain up to a 20 per cent stake in Coles, the demerger effectively splits the company into two separate entities, with WES owning Bunnings, Kmart, Target, and Officeworks, as... Show More

wesfarmers ASX:WES coles demerger

What does outstanding stock picking look like?

Tim Kelley

Most investors would be familiar with the sorts of returns a successful stock-picker might aim to produce. Often, a fund will have an explicit target of beating the market by an amount of, say, 5 per cent per annum over rolling 5-year periods. It is interesting then to think about... Show More

investing stocks

What drives investment performance?

Tim Kelley

We recently undertook an analysis to try to better understand the structure and behaviour of the equity market, with a view to identifying cause and effect relationships that drive investment performance. Firstly, we organised the equity market into industry clusters based on similarity of investment performance. This is similar in... Show More

investing performance

Why we aren’t concerned to see volatility rising

Tim Kelley

Last week saw an abrupt gear change, with global equity markets taking a step backwards and volatility suddenly spiking much higher although so far, the market disruption hasn’t had much of an impact on overall valuations. In this video Tim gives you a perspective on how here at Montgomery we... Show More

global markets market volatility

Is Bitcoin a rational investment?

Tim Kelley

Bitcoin has enjoyed an extraordinary surge in both value and public attention recently. The chart below maps the rise in the price of a Bitcoin in USD over the last few years, and a similar chart could probably be plotted for the number of column inches, the number of internet... Show More

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Positioning for an electric vehicle future

Tim Kelley

It seems reasonable to expect that the rate of adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase markedly in years to come. Within a handful of years, it is thought that advancing technology will make EVs competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles on a lifecycle cost basis, and at that... Show More

electric vehicle

Is Telstra (finally) cheap?

Tim Kelley

Only 12 months back, Telstra (ASX: TLS) shares were trading at around $5.00. The fall since then has been precipitous. Which has got a lot of investors asking: does it finally represent good value? Show More

ASX:TLS

Does it make sense to own Wesfarmers?

Tim Kelley

Over the years, Montgomery has written various articles on the headwinds facing the Australian supermarket industry, with a particular focus on the rise of discounters like Aldi, and more recently we have observed that Woolworths has taken steps to reverse a long trend of weak like-for-like sales performance, and begun... Show More

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Quality and patience are key

Tim Kelley

Humans are hard-wired, it seems, with an affinity for narrative over data. When the equity market falls over the course of a day, for example, we want an explanation for what happened. Something vague and unprovable like “profit taking” will do nicely. This explanation offers no real insight into the... Show More

How should you read a broker report?

Tim Kelley

Broker reports are one of the most widely-used information sources for equity investors of all stripes, and there is no doubt they can be a very useful source of background information on an industry or company. In addition, they provide financial forecasts, valuation estimates and, of course, the analyst’s overall... Show More

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Is there hidden upside in Carsales?

Tim Kelley

Carsales.com (ASX:CAR) has enjoyed a strong run since floating in 2009 at $3.50 per share and it’s a business we’ve held in high regard for some time. Show More

ASX:CAR

Should Telstra securitise its NBN Co. payments?

Tim Kelley

Over the next few months Telstra will make some important capital allocation decisions, including what to do with billions of dollars in payments from NBN Co. Naturally, investors are eagerly awaiting the announcements. So, what can they expect to see? Show More

How much faith should you put in stock tips?

Tim Kelley

Stock tips are some of the most keenly-read – and fiercely debated – items in the financial media. But how much credence should you give them? And which tipsters should you trust? Show More

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BWX's success in international markets

Tim Kelley

In this video insight, I discuss a company held in our domestic funds, BWX and their early success in international markets. Show More

Why we stay ‘married’ to quality businesses

Tim Kelley

Last year saw a ‘junk rally’ in equity markets: higher quality businesses delivered generally weaker returns, while lower quality businesses did better. This made it hard for fund managers like us – who are wedded to the high-quality end of the market – to keep up with the benchmark. Is... Show More

Is it time to head for the exits?

Tim Kelley

Altair Asset Management made headlines this week with its decision to liquidate its portfolios, reasoning that it intends to avoid a market crash. Altair’s bold move came in the midst of a growing media focus on the extent of overvaluation – and potential risk – in asset markets, including equities,... Show More

Is Telstra good value after its dip?

Tim Kelley

Telstra (TLS) is not high on the list of businesses we would most like to own. Having said that, it is not a terrible business, and at the right price it makes sense to own it, particularly given its steady dividend stream. So, with TLS’s share price down around 20... Show More

ASX:TLS

What does business quality mean for long-term returns?

Tim Kelley

I discuss business quality – what it is, why we focus on it, and what it means for long-term investment returns. Let's start with what we mean by quality. Different investors have different definitions for quality. Our specific definition is the ability to invest capital and earns above the cost... Show More

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