Why we see value in Telstra

Tim Kelley

Over the last two years, the ASX200 accumulation index has delivered a total return of around 25% which has been a pretty solid result for equity investors generally. During that same period, however, Telstra shares have delivered a negative total return of close to 30%, making Telstra the weakest performer... Show More

Is the Coles demerger a good idea?

Tim Kelley

Recently, Wesfarmers Limited (ASX: WES) announced its intention to demerge the Coles business into a separate ASX-listed company. While WES will retain up to a 20 per cent stake in Coles, the demerger effectively splits the company into two separate entities, with WES owning Bunnings, Kmart, Target, and Officeworks, as... Show More

What drives investment performance?

Tim Kelley

We recently undertook an analysis to try to better understand the structure and behaviour of the equity market, with a view to identifying cause and effect relationships that drive investment performance. Firstly, we organised the equity market into industry clusters based on similarity of investment performance. This is similar in... Show More

Positioning for an electric vehicle future

Tim Kelley

It seems reasonable to expect that the rate of adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase markedly in years to come. Within a handful of years, it is thought that advancing technology will make EVs competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles on a lifecycle cost basis, and at that... Show More

Is Telstra (finally) cheap?

Tim Kelley

Only 12 months back, Telstra (ASX: TLS) shares were trading at around $5.00. The fall since then has been precipitous. Which has got a lot of investors asking: does it finally represent good value? Show More

Does it make sense to own Wesfarmers?

Tim Kelley

Over the years, Montgomery has written various articles on the headwinds facing the Australian supermarket industry, with a particular focus on the rise of discounters like Aldi, and more recently we have observed that Woolworths has taken steps to reverse a long trend of weak like-for-like sales performance, and begun... Show More

Join the conversation

Quality and patience are key

Tim Kelley

Humans are hard-wired, it seems, with an affinity for narrative over data. When the equity market falls over the course of a day, for example, we want an explanation for what happened. Something vague and unprovable like “profit taking” will do nicely. This explanation offers no real insight into the... Show More

How should you read a broker report?

Tim Kelley

Broker reports are one of the most widely-used information sources for equity investors of all stripes, and there is no doubt they can be a very useful source of background information on an industry or company. In addition, they provide financial forecasts, valuation estimates and, of course, the analyst’s overall... Show More

See 6 more comments

Should Telstra securitise its NBN Co. payments?

Tim Kelley

Over the next few months Telstra will make some important capital allocation decisions, including what to do with billions of dollars in payments from NBN Co. Naturally, investors are eagerly awaiting the announcements. So, what can they expect to see? Show More

Why we stay ‘married’ to quality businesses

Tim Kelley

Last year saw a ‘junk rally’ in equity markets: higher quality businesses delivered generally weaker returns, while lower quality businesses did better. This made it hard for fund managers like us – who are wedded to the high-quality end of the market – to keep up with the benchmark. Is... Show More

Is it time to head for the exits?

Tim Kelley

Altair Asset Management made headlines this week with its decision to liquidate its portfolios, reasoning that it intends to avoid a market crash. Altair’s bold move came in the midst of a growing media focus on the extent of overvaluation – and potential risk – in asset markets, including equities,... Show More

No comments.