Hi John, thanks for your comments. The date should be in the top right hand corner of the article. If it’s not showing it might be because you are using a rare browser e.g. an older version of Internet Explorer which unfortunately we don’t support. If you try Chrome or Safari you should be able to see it.
Excellent podcast, thank you Patrick & Charlie. You did a terrific job explaining everything in laymans terms. Made it really enjoyable to listen to + I learned a few new things
Interesting update, thanks Matt
From the New York Times: “From a Western market perspective, what China is trying to do cuts against everything we know that will work. But they don’t see this the way we do. People in the Western democracies tolerate volatility. But the failure of equity markets in China could translate into social unrest, which is a horrifying prospect for the Chinese leadership.” http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/business/international/why-chinas-stock-market-bailout-just-might-work.html
They are underweight bonds - full stop - when compared with their global counterparts.
JP Morgan agrees that’s there’s light at the end of the tunnel for Europe saying “There are a number of key catalysts in place for Europe in 2015” Watch the 1 min video: http://goo.gl/YMceta
HSBC's economists Paul Bloxham and Adam Richardson agree... the bar for RBA intervention as very high and unlikely to be met anytime soon. Just speaking about the possibility of intervention was enough to see the Australian dollar sell-off. While the RBA would clearly have welcomed this move, time will tell whether this weakness persists. With much of the weight of the Governor's commentary and the RBA's own modelling indicating that the Australian dollar is not far from fair value and with intervention seen as costly, we still think there is a very high bar set before the RBA would actually consider intervening.
Thanks for sharing this Gav. Here's the full article for those interested: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fed-assets-20131029,0,5018539.story#axzz2jKYqJb00
and David Fullers reply... I maintain that Abenomics is a winning formula for Japan but energy costs are the biggest obstacle. Given Japan's long history of nuclear horrors - from Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 to Fukushima in 2011 - it is understandable that its citizens will not tolerate the reopening of the nuclear plants.
Full report is available here: https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook
Full article for those interested: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-asks-why-global-financial-markets-remain-buoyant-in-the-face-of-mounting-geopolitical-risks
Market strategy calls on page three are impressive Mathan - well done.
On a normalised basis it looks like US equity valuations have been stretched and now reverting... http://goo.gl/aXT7AO
volume better pick up or brokers will have to go back to youtube product testing. Classic.
OK - so it should be sell in may and go away... but only if you're in the U.S.A.
It looks like financials may extend those numbers further this year...
On Sell in May -
That's sound advice Mathan
A great follow up to your previous post John. Thank you.
Thanks Ann, hopefully the first of many
A good read, thanks Charlie.
I think what he's saying is that people have been warning us about the Chinese bubble since 2007/08 yet they keep marching on albeit at a slower rate. He's not saying it won't pop... just putting it in the too hard basket until we see a clear catalyst.
Good point Hock, will be very interesting to watch the agendas. thanks for sharing your perspective.
Interesting start to the day Jay. Thanks for the update.
Classic show of the wealth effect.
Yep - putting an end date on the misery is much more difficult that establishing start dates
Love the Bradbury comment. Even if you don't win, at least you won't crash out.
Welcome back Henry and happy new year. Looking forward to reading some more beeksdownunder.
Thanks for the full update Jay. For anyone that's interested, here's the full FOMC release: http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20131218a.htm
Good call and thankfully they followed your advice.
Jay - I was just discussing the sharp move in the VIX with James Marlay and what it means. Do you have a view?
Good wrap up, thanks Peter.
Full article is behind the paywall: http://www.afr.com/p/business/financial_services/focus_on_bank_securities_may_be_wpa2NEvUYkyzzEZ5suEnJI
@jmarlay know's the business quite well as he covered them whilst at BRR. James - what's your view on how they handle so many smaller businesses?
Another point to consider... Alex Cowie @acowie said to me last night... It's novel marketing to say that the messages are deleted after 10 seconds but you can bet the NSA has them all on file.
@scheatham suggests snap-wire. I'll talk to our Dev team over the weekend to make it happen.
Significant turn around for them since May 2013 when they forecasted gold to bounce back to $1600. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bnp-paribas-sees-gold-above-1600-in-6-months-2013-05-10
Good wrap up thanks Jay - the full article from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for those interested can be read here: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
China has just lifted the ban on Facebook but only for people in Shanghai. Will be interesting to see the takeup. I'm guessing due to the exclusivity and desire for Chinese to understand what's going on in the rest of the world it will be good. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2431861/China-lifts-ban-Facebook--people-living-working-small-area-Shanghai.html
Here's the full link to the WSJ aritcle for those interested: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303618904579171502758867222
Better a year early than a month late. Well said Perko
Bega board met on Thursday to consider raising the bid...
Here's the link if you are a member of FT: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/10/30/1681512/bear-hunting/
Seems like there's a big negative sentiment change over the past 48 hours. Is this just the start?
Guthrie - great to have you on Livewire. Hope all's well
UBS have also upgraded to a BUY rating as the company managed to lift its gross margins underpinning estimates. In UBS's view, the case of ResMed has now become one of shorter term headwinds against longer term value.
China and the rest of the world have lost faith in the US to mange its politics/economy. Very difficult for UST's to be viewed as risk-free any longer now that we've seen what's possible.
Welcome Sloan - good to have you on Livewire.
Welcome David - great to have you with us!
Are you also calling a cut in Feb?
@adawes welcome - great to see you on the platform
Heres' the link: http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-of-the-day-executives-around-the-globe-are-finally-optimistic-again-2013-9
Read this last night and would recommend - a concise breakdown of the important numbers.
Interesting to see how close the fidelity result was to the LW poll!
Welcome to LW CommSec... great to see you on the platform!
Good to see you on LW Sophia!
Interesting analysis - thanks for contributing David.
Welcome to the site Alexis!