I recently had the opportunity to sit down for 30 minutes with Hamish Douglass, the CIO of Magellan at their new offices in Sydney. We discussed a wide range of topics from his biggest influences to the most impactful trends that are driving his investment strategy today. During my time... Show More
Livewire is proud to announce its partnership with one of Australia’s most innovative FinTech companies, Sharesight. Since 2009 Sharesight has been developing a unique, cloud-based, portfolio tracking and reporting tool that makes it easy to understand your trading history and dividends. The software is now used by over 40,000 (happy)... Show More
Michael Morris, a professor from Columbia Business School, wrote a paper titled "Metaphors and the market: Consequences and preconditions of agent and object metaphors in stock market commentary.” In the paper, Morris investigates if the way commentators speak about markets can directly influence investors expectations. The paper splits market commentary... Show More
The TED Spread is calculated as the difference between the 3 month LIBOR rate and the 3 month T-Bill interest rate, and it’s considered a key measure of credit risk in the economy. When the TED Spread rises, it indicates that perceived credit risk is increasing among counterparties – and... Show More
I met with our SEO consultant last week and during our catch up we started discussing popular search terms on Google. He brought up Google Trends and asked me to give him an example search term that investors might be searching for. I said how about “Property Bubble” – and... Show More
Justin Paterno, the President of StockTwits, just returned from a week in China. He came back with 6 interesting observations - and one that was ultra relevant for investors. Paterno says "It is a waste of time and money for US internet companies to try to access the China market.... Show More
With oil prices down 50% since June, the global economy is benefitting. The IMF suggests low prices could provide a 0.7% boost to GDP worldwide. However, Bloomberg and New Energy Finance say those spoils won’t be shared evenly and have produced this map showing who the big winners and losers... Show More
How is the world's biggest hedge fund positioning itself? According to ValueWalk Bridgewater is bullish on the Japanese Yen, Indian Rupee and Korean Won while bearish on the Russian Ruble, Australian Dollar, Euro and British Pound. They like short term debt in the developed world and slightly like bonds in... Show More
Einhorn: stocks are getting expensive, emergency central bank policies are not working. David Einhorn, talking on a conference call on Wednesday says equities are looking stretched, the negatives we see include stretched valuations and earnings headwinds later this year, including a strong dollar, which reduces the translated earnings of foreign... Show More
The Credit Suisse research team have released their annual Global Investment Returns Yearbook for 2015. This years edition includes articles on 1) The importance of industry weightings for long-term investors; 2) Responsible investing; 3) How the market-implied cost of capital mean reverts over time and the extent to which this... Show More
Investors now paying corporations to hold their money. From the FT... Nestle's short-term euro-denominated bond yield has fallen into negative territory, possibly marking the first time in history that a corporate bond maturing in more than a year has had a negative yield. The Swiss food company is one of... Show More
Jim O'Neill, The former Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management talks about the Swiss National Bank's decision to abandon the swiss franc's cap against the euro and its market implications. Did they get the inside word on Europe? http://www.bloomberg.com/video/jim-o-neill-on-snb-franc-move-euro-area-outlook-markets-8Z4ZliP_Tc~El33YXaQyNw.html Show More
UBS Chairman makes 5 observations about what's happening and what's going to happen in markets. In this morning's AFR the chairman of UBS makes 5 calls for 2015 and beyond. 1) There will be a lot of volatility this year with a rising USD, falling oil and competing central bank... Show More
There is no question who is behind the boom in China's sharemarket: retail investors. Individuals account for about 80% of trading in China, massively outweighing institutional investors-the opposite of more established markets. After losing money for years, China's mom-and-pop investors had all but turned their back on equities. The recent... Show More
Carl Icahn's interview with Bloomberg. When asked about the biggest risk to markets at the moment, Icahn says: There's still risk in the financial markets, even though the economy looks pretty good. The one area I think is getting to be a bubble is the high-yield market. These bonds are... Show More
Livewire one to watch on the 50 Fintech Innovators list. KPMG, AWI and the FSC have released their 50 Best Fintech Innovators report for 2014. The report ranks companies that are driving disruption within the international financial services industry and features big global names such as Square, Kickstarter and Xero.... Show More
OPEC split playing out behind closed doors. Bloomberg reports that up to eight countries involved in the recent OPEC meeting wanted a reduction. However, the push for a cut, which would have required unanimous backing, was shot down, triggering the immediate price collapse. The disagreement cements the formation of two... Show More
London property hits the ceiling. London's soaring home prices, which peaked this year, have pushed buyers to the sidelines. Lending restrictions and sluggish wage growth have also curbed demand, now at a more than six-year low, as buyers wait for values to decline further. It costs about 25 percent more... Show More
How to deal with volatility (or how not to deal with it). The good people at Abnormal Returns say: Every (trading and investment) strategy will require some tweaking over time, but investors almost always get into trouble when they adjust their plans during times of market stress. It is always... Show More
If the Hong Kong Umbrella Revolution escalates - watch out for the economic repercussions. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in the Telegraph: China's Xi Jinping cannot make any serious concessions to Hong Kong's democracy movement. The Umbrella Revolution spreading from the affluent Island to the poorer quarters of Kowloon is an existential... Show More
Interesting update, thanks Matt
From the New York Times: “From a Western market perspective, what China is trying to do cuts against everything we know that will work. But they don’t see this the way we do. People in the Western democracies tolerate volatility. But the failure of equity markets in China could translate into social unrest, which is a horrifying prospect for the Chinese leadership.” http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/business/international/why-chinas-stock-market-bailout-just-might-work.html
They are underweight bonds - full stop - when compared with their global counterparts.
JP Morgan agrees that’s there’s light at the end of the tunnel for Europe saying “There are a number of key catalysts in place for Europe in 2015” Watch the 1 min video: http://goo.gl/YMceta
HSBC's economists Paul Bloxham and Adam Richardson agree... the bar for RBA intervention as very high and unlikely to be met anytime soon. Just speaking about the possibility of intervention was enough to see the Australian dollar sell-off. While the RBA would clearly have welcomed this move, time will tell whether this weakness persists. With much of the weight of the Governor's commentary and the RBA's own modelling indicating that the Australian dollar is not far from fair value and with intervention seen as costly, we still think there is a very high bar set before the RBA would actually consider intervening.
Thanks for sharing this Gav. Here's the full article for those interested: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-fed-assets-20131029,0,5018539.story#axzz2jKYqJb00
and David Fullers reply... I maintain that Abenomics is a winning formula for Japan but energy costs are the biggest obstacle. Given Japan's long history of nuclear horrors - from Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 to Fukushima in 2011 - it is understandable that its citizens will not tolerate the reopening of the nuclear plants.
Full report is available here: https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook
Full article for those interested: http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-asks-why-global-financial-markets-remain-buoyant-in-the-face-of-mounting-geopolitical-risks
Market strategy calls on page three are impressive Mathan - well done.
On a normalised basis it looks like US equity valuations have been stretched and now reverting... http://goo.gl/aXT7AO
volume better pick up or brokers will have to go back to youtube product testing. Classic.
Thanks Jordan. I would like to get some more info on his reasoning but haven't been able to uncover more info. I think we'll have to put it down to the instincts and experience of PTJ. After all he's had 38 years living, breathing markets and seen almost every situation you are likely to see.
OK - so it should be sell in may and go away... but only if you're in the U.S.A.
It looks like financials may extend those numbers further this year...
On Sell in May -
I think it really adds another element to the Credit/HY problem - which could turn ugly quickly if rates start to move.
That's sound advice Mathan
A great follow up to your previous post John. Thank you.
Thanks Ann, hopefully the first of many
A good read, thanks Charlie.
I think what he's saying is that people have been warning us about the Chinese bubble since 2007/08 yet they keep marching on albeit at a slower rate. He's not saying it won't pop... just putting it in the too hard basket until we see a clear catalyst.
Good point Hock, will be very interesting to watch the agendas. thanks for sharing your perspective.
Interesting start to the day Jay. Thanks for the update.
Classic show of the wealth effect.
Yep - putting an end date on the misery is much more difficult that establishing start dates
Love the Bradbury comment. Even if you don't win, at least you won't crash out.
Welcome back Henry and happy new year. Looking forward to reading some more beeksdownunder.
Thanks for the full update Jay. For anyone that's interested, here's the full FOMC release: http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20131218a.htm
Good call and thankfully they followed your advice.
Jay - I was just discussing the sharp move in the VIX with James Marlay and what it means. Do you have a view?
Good wrap up, thanks Peter.
Full article is behind the paywall: http://www.afr.com/p/business/financial_services/focus_on_bank_securities_may_be_wpa2NEvUYkyzzEZ5suEnJI
@jmarlay know's the business quite well as he covered them whilst at BRR. James - what's your view on how they handle so many smaller businesses?
Another point to consider... Alex Cowie @acowie said to me last night... It's novel marketing to say that the messages are deleted after 10 seconds but you can bet the NSA has them all on file.
@scheatham suggests snap-wire. I'll talk to our Dev team over the weekend to make it happen.
Significant turn around for them since May 2013 when they forecasted gold to bounce back to $1600. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bnp-paribas-sees-gold-above-1600-in-6-months-2013-05-10
Good wrap up thanks Jay - the full article from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for those interested can be read here: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
China has just lifted the ban on Facebook but only for people in Shanghai. Will be interesting to see the takeup. I'm guessing due to the exclusivity and desire for Chinese to understand what's going on in the rest of the world it will be good. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2431861/China-lifts-ban-Facebook--people-living-working-small-area-Shanghai.html
Here's the full link to the WSJ aritcle for those interested: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303618904579171502758867222
Better a year early than a month late. Well said Perko
Bega board met on Thursday to consider raising the bid...
Here's the link if you are a member of FT: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/10/30/1681512/bear-hunting/
Seems like there's a big negative sentiment change over the past 48 hours. Is this just the start?
Guthrie - great to have you on Livewire. Hope all's well
UBS have also upgraded to a BUY rating as the company managed to lift its gross margins underpinning estimates. In UBS's view, the case of ResMed has now become one of shorter term headwinds against longer term value.
China and the rest of the world have lost faith in the US to mange its politics/economy. Very difficult for UST's to be viewed as risk-free any longer now that we've seen what's possible.
Welcome Sloan - good to have you on Livewire.
Welcome David - great to have you with us!
Are you also calling a cut in Feb?
@adawes welcome - great to see you on the platform
Heres' the link: http://www.businessinsider.com.au/chart-of-the-day-executives-around-the-globe-are-finally-optimistic-again-2013-9
Read this last night and would recommend - a concise breakdown of the important numbers.
Interesting to see how close the fidelity result was to the LW poll!
Welcome to LW CommSec... great to see you on the platform!
Good to see you on LW Sophia!
Interesting analysis - thanks for contributing David.
Welcome to the site Alexis!