Was January 26 the cycle peak?

Vimal Gor

There are two attitudes you can take to the February 2018 “flash crash”. The first, and overwhelmingly the most popular, is that this was a technically driven correction in the markets, exacerbated by carry monkeys such as the short-VIX crowd, and that the pause since then has provided a refresh... Show More

An unstable equilibrium

Vimal Gor

We have been living in a low-vol world for a while now, driven by a massive alphabet soup of central bank liquidity, which have been delivered globally. If it’s not the Fed engaging in QE’s 1, 2 and 3, it’s the ECB’s PSPP and CSPP bid, BoJ’s QE and yield... Show More

A change in the trend?

Vimal Gor

Just as the markets had convinced themselves they were in for an uneventful carryharvesting summer, something started to change at the end of the month, with central bank communication seemingly dominating economic data with respect to their impact on market moves. Whilst the theme of disinflation continued to play out... Show More

Why we are getting more cautious on China

Vimal Gor

The reason that China will always find itself in a position where its hand is forced on rates is because they continue to try and manage the currency and avoid significant depreciation while having a leaky capital account, which still enables individuals and corporates to get their money out of... Show More

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