For two years now, Roger Montgomery has been warning investors of a pending housing crash. While these claims were initially met with scepticism, as the data has deteriorated significantly in Sydney and Melbourne, more investors are coming to accept this thesis. According to CoreLogic’s Home Property Value Index, prices for... Show More
The market opened reasonably well this morning considering the soft leads overseas plus net negative news flow out over the weekend – a drop of 40pts early felt optimistic and that proved correct as stocks were sold down hard throughout the day, led lower by weakness across Asia along with... Show More
Over the course of 2018, the Royal Commission into Financial Services has provided numerous examples of the conflicts of interest inherent to the vertically integrated model of financial advice. In this model, the financial adviser is often incentivised to direct their client's savings onto an investment platform and then invest... Show More
Slowing growth and tightening profit margins, customers entering financial stress and falling asset values; It sounds like the recipe for a disastrous investment but what if the price of the investment has factored in something even worse, which failed to eventuate? Show More
That was the first question I put to a panel of fund managers in front of a live audience of investors at a private event we held in conjunction with IRESS last week. The consensus view is that the current pull back is merely a pause before markets continue to... Show More
In the last couple of days, I have received a number of responses from clients and readers regarding our article ‘The golden age of banking is over’. Given the connection some investors have with banks shares this was to be expected and I’ll take some time in an attempt to... Show More
It’s always a relief to wake up from a nightmare and while we believe that the nightmare for property investors may have only just begun, there may be relief, or even a silver lining, in the form of lower bank share prices. Show More
Since the end of August, the Australian market at one stage was down about 12%. It's recovered a little bit, but it has been a pretty hairy ride. So, has this been a healthy correction or is there something more sinister going on? Roger Montgomery explains why he is very... Show More
If you’d held banking shares for the last 30 years, and those share prices and dividends had increased in most of those years with only a few hiccups, one can understand the sentimentality and attractiveness these names carry in the minds of investors. This, of course, doesn’t make that thought... Show More
Australia has had a multi-decade love affair with credit, where we've gone from households being quite under-leveraged because we had financial regulation and credit rationing, to a ‘go for your lives’ scenario. It turns out when you let people borrow as much as they want, they borrow a lot. So... Show More
We believe major bank dividends are sustainable. This is despite a challenging operating environment that we feel is being reasonably managed to grow profitably at a steady rate and lower overall earnings volatility. In this report, we look at historical precedents to make our case. Show More
Over the past twelve months small companies (as measured by the ASX’s Small Ordinaries) have returned 22%, outperforming large caps (ASX Top 100) by almost 10%. This has led to numerous articles in the financial press claiming that small is beautiful and that investors should look beyond large Australian companies... Show More
While you may not follow movements in the bank bill swap rate (BBSW), right now they are worth paying attention to. You see, rates are on the rise. And that means the funding costs for our major banks are also going up. This could force them to raise mortgage rates... Show More
Here is the ASX 200 results calendar - the results season is still a couple of weeks away. As usual, it is a best endeavours calendar, some companies simply don’t set a reliable date. The big companies generally do. Show More
Back in August 2015, we wrote an incisive article noting that ANZ’s $2.5 billion placement raising had fallen short. Whilst there was no public confirmation at the time by either ANZ or the underwriters, it was our experience in the market that led us to deduce that the investment banks... Show More
Miners and Banks are the two dominant sectors on the ASX. For the last few years, the miners have done the heavy lifting, and while they are a long way from former highs, there is no denying they've had a good run. Catherine Allfrey of Wavestone Capital says investors are... Show More
Register or Login to access this premium content
Livewire brings together the insights of more than 100 leading investment professionals to one platform and a daily newsletter.
Registration is FREE.
Already a member? Sign in.
The statistical release of APRA and the RBA’s credit growth data for April shows a stabilisation in the rate of overall mortgage, personal and business loan book growth at 5 per cent across the overall Australian market. By category, mortgage book growth continued to slow, increasing 6 per cent year... Show More
During the Italian crisis there were some big moves in credit spreads overseas, and I've been asked a few times how current ASX hybrid spreads/returns compare to the major banks' hybrids issued in US dollars. Enclosed is a quick summary. Show More
As investors there’s always plenty to worry about, and in our view the reasons to be anxious just got bigger. You’d have to be living under a rock not to have heard or read excerpts from the Banking Royal Commission. Much of this has been unbelievably good theatre, but make... Show More
It would be understandable if investors with large holdings in the four major commercial banks spent much of their time reviewing the recent mixed earnings results and negative newsflow from the Royal Commission. However, the vast amount of negative media and analyst coverage makes it tempting to spend too much... Show More