The ASX 200 Accumulation index returned a respectable 15.4% at the close of reporting season, and is poised to return a similar amount over the next 12 months if all goes to plan. Factset consensus forecasts anticipate another year of 7.2% earnings growth at a dividend yield of 4.6% which... Show More
Australia has had a multi-decade love affair with credit, where we've gone from households being quite under-leveraged because we had financial regulation and credit rationing, to a ‘go for your lives’ scenario. It turns out when you let people borrow as much as they want, they borrow a lot. So... Show More
We believe major bank dividends are sustainable. This is despite a challenging operating environment that we feel is being reasonably managed to grow profitably at a steady rate and lower overall earnings volatility. In this report, we look at historical precedents to make our case. Show More
In our reporting season preview, we noted that the spread in consensus forecasts was very narrow and the potential for beats and misses versus market expectations was lower than normal. It is this dynamic that foreshadowed many of the results across our coverage universe, where results were mostly in line... Show More
We have decided to take a look at the major banks in Australia. There are a number of reasons why stock market investors are worrying about the Australian banking sector which we outline below, followed by a discussion on each of the major banks. Show More
The listed independent platform providers – HUB24, NetWealth, Praemium and OneVue – have been stellar performers in recent years. It’s not surprising when you consider the favourable environment they’ve been operating in. Show More
The elephant in the room for residential property is the ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins. While the recent rise in funding costs has been well documented, this dynamic is persisting. Show More
Investors are waiting for a circuit-breaker. Stretched valuations limit upside potential for a further re-rating of the market multiple (15.8x 12month forward PE, Industrials ex-Financials at 21.8x) and without clear earnings momentum in either direction the market is likely to remain rangebound. Show More
Over the past twelve months small companies (as measured by the ASX’s Small Ordinaries) have returned 22%, outperforming large caps (ASX Top 100) by almost 10%. This has led to numerous articles in the financial press claiming that small is beautiful and that investors should look beyond large Australian companies... Show More
"We're facing a perfect storm here in the Australian agricultural market, with the dry conditions leading to a poor winter crop, an over-supply of products and increased competition across our sector. The whole agricultural supply chain is feeling the impact of this year's extremely dry conditions” Greg Hunt, CEO, Nufarm Show More
While you may not follow movements in the bank bill swap rate (BBSW), right now they are worth paying attention to. You see, rates are on the rise. And that means the funding costs for our major banks are also going up. This could force them to raise mortgage rates... Show More
We currently expect the S&P/ASX 200 index to finish the year around the current level, but the outlook, particularly this late in a sustained business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable. Show More
Miners and Banks are the two dominant sectors on the ASX. For the last few years, the miners have done the heavy lifting, and while they are a long way from former highs, there is no denying they've had a good run. Catherine Allfrey of Wavestone Capital says investors are... Show More
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“I don't think the FANGs or the tech stocks are frothy at all. I think relative to the rest of the market never have stocks been this cheap” Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management Corp Show More
The statistical release of APRA and the RBA’s credit growth data for April shows a stabilisation in the rate of overall mortgage, personal and business loan book growth at 5 per cent across the overall Australian market. By category, mortgage book growth continued to slow, increasing 6 per cent year... Show More
Economic growth overall is still supportive for equities, and we currently expect the ASX200 to edge higher to 6200 by year-end. The outlook however, particularly this late in a sustained global business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable to various risks, notably higher bond yields and geopolitical issues. Show More
During the Italian crisis there were some big moves in credit spreads overseas, and I've been asked a few times how current ASX hybrid spreads/returns compare to the major banks' hybrids issued in US dollars. Enclosed is a quick summary. Show More
As investors there’s always plenty to worry about, and in our view the reasons to be anxious just got bigger. You’d have to be living under a rock not to have heard or read excerpts from the Banking Royal Commission. Much of this has been unbelievably good theatre, but make... Show More
It would be understandable if investors with large holdings in the four major commercial banks spent much of their time reviewing the recent mixed earnings results and negative newsflow from the Royal Commission. However, the vast amount of negative media and analyst coverage makes it tempting to spend too much... Show More
Our major banks may not be outnumbered nor outgunned in the operational sense but some are clearly not seen to be occupying the moral high ground at the moment. Show More