Investors are waiting for a circuit-breaker. Stretched valuations limit upside potential for a further re-rating of the market multiple (15.8x 12month forward PE, Industrials ex-Financials at 21.8x) and without clear earnings momentum in either direction the market is likely to remain rangebound. Show More
Over the past twelve months small companies (as measured by the ASX’s Small Ordinaries) have returned 22%, outperforming large caps (ASX Top 100) by almost 10%. This has led to numerous articles in the financial press claiming that small is beautiful and that investors should look beyond large Australian companies... Show More
"We're facing a perfect storm here in the Australian agricultural market, with the dry conditions leading to a poor winter crop, an over-supply of products and increased competition across our sector. The whole agricultural supply chain is feeling the impact of this year's extremely dry conditions” Greg Hunt, CEO, Nufarm Show More
While you may not follow movements in the bank bill swap rate (BBSW), right now they are worth paying attention to. You see, rates are on the rise. And that means the funding costs for our major banks are also going up. This could force them to raise mortgage rates... Show More
We currently expect the S&P/ASX 200 index to finish the year around the current level, but the outlook, particularly this late in a sustained business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable. Show More
Miners and Banks are the two dominant sectors on the ASX. For the last few years, the miners have done the heavy lifting, and while they are a long way from former highs, there is no denying they've had a good run. Catherine Allfrey of Wavestone Capital says investors are... Show More
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“I don't think the FANGs or the tech stocks are frothy at all. I think relative to the rest of the market never have stocks been this cheap” Julian Robertson, Founder, Tiger Management Corp Show More
The statistical release of APRA and the RBA’s credit growth data for April shows a stabilisation in the rate of overall mortgage, personal and business loan book growth at 5 per cent across the overall Australian market. By category, mortgage book growth continued to slow, increasing 6 per cent year... Show More
Economic growth overall is still supportive for equities, and we currently expect the ASX200 to edge higher to 6200 by year-end. The outlook however, particularly this late in a sustained global business cycle, is becoming more vulnerable to various risks, notably higher bond yields and geopolitical issues. Show More
During the Italian crisis there were some big moves in credit spreads overseas, and I've been asked a few times how current ASX hybrid spreads/returns compare to the major banks' hybrids issued in US dollars. Enclosed is a quick summary. Show More
As investors there’s always plenty to worry about, and in our view the reasons to be anxious just got bigger. You’d have to be living under a rock not to have heard or read excerpts from the Banking Royal Commission. Much of this has been unbelievably good theatre, but make... Show More
It would be understandable if investors with large holdings in the four major commercial banks spent much of their time reviewing the recent mixed earnings results and negative newsflow from the Royal Commission. However, the vast amount of negative media and analyst coverage makes it tempting to spend too much... Show More
Our major banks may not be outnumbered nor outgunned in the operational sense but some are clearly not seen to be occupying the moral high ground at the moment. Show More
Financial services have been making headlines for all the wrong reasons in recent weeks. Following Rowena “Shock and” Orr’s public shellacking of the wealth management industry, AMP Limited has since lost almost its entire board of directors, as well as a big part of the executive team. The banks were... Show More
In the midst of the Royal Commission into Misconduct in Financial Services, the major banks have released their latest half yearly results. The market headed into the reporting period with a high degree of apprehension given the public backlash emanating from the revelations coming from testimony at the Royal Commission... Show More
Wilson Asset Management held their shareholder presentation in Sydney today. Chris Stott, Catriona Burns, and Matt Haupt all took the stage this morning to share their view on the markets, their top themes, and a few stock ideas. Here are the highlights. Show More
The conclusion of our December 2016 Livewire article read... “Such would suggest that the 2015 peak valuations in the Australian banking sector could indeed have marked the top of a multi-decade cycle for Australian banks. The latent risks confronting Australia’s banks appear significant, suggesting a high likelihood that in the... Show More
“The switch from traditional fuels into renewables is just a massive switch, and we're seeing it across so many different businesses that we are working with – not just our own business, but so many different businesses out there, where the energy profile they are looking at is changing as... Show More
The Royal Commission into the Australian banking system has triggered shocking headlines of abuse, particularly around financial advice. But there is a danger that while the inquiry identifies issues and delivers a regulatory response, it doesn’t get to the core of the problem. Show More
All eyes appear to be on tonight’s Federal Budget with low volumes and a lack of direction seen across the board today. For the fourth day in a row the market poked its head above 6100 but failed to close ahead of the milestone. As suggested in the AM report... Show More