The 2018-19 Budget will be the last before the next election (due by May 2019) and so had to provide pre-election goodies but in a way that keeps the return to surplus on track. Thanks to an improvement in the budget position since the Mid-Year review, of around $7bn per... Show More
While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21... Show More
Twenty-six years of uninterrupted economic expansion. Australia’s recent performance is now unmatched in history. While a handful of factors have been key to this outcome, without doubt, the floating of the Australian dollar in December 1983 was one of the most critical. According to former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)... Show More
In January, market commentary was almost universally bullish. Ray Dalio, the billionaire US Hedge Fund Manager told the audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos that those holding cash were “going to feel pretty stupid.” One of the few voices urging caution was that of Chris Watling, CEO and... Show More
One month into 2018 and the AUD has punched above 80 US cents and is looking pretty perky. It is trading around its highs against the beleaguered USD since 2014. So, why is it up here again? Can it last? Is it time to sell? Or strap in for a... Show More
Yet again another quarter and another CPI miss. The RBA has no reason to move rates on the back of these soft numbers. Despite oil prices rallying throughout the quarter and the global economy and risk in general being bid to the moon, we are still yet to see the... Show More
Gold prices have continued their march higher in the last 24 hours, currently trading near USD $1355oz. Silver has also rallied, continuing the impressive run in precious metal prices which dates back to mid December 2017, with gold and silver up 9% and 12% respectively in this current rally. Show More
Precious metal prices have been in full retreat the past few weeks, with the price of gold declining toward USD $1300oz. This pullback has had a number of drivers including an easing of the ‘safe haven’ bid as markets fade the rhetoric to do with Korea, the USD catching a... Show More
After being range bound and unable to break through the key US $1,300oz level since Nov 2016, gold has staged a sharp rally overnight on the back of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Show More
Gold has been getting a lot of good press lately, with the escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula seeing the yellow metal push back toward USD $1290oz, whilst in local currency terms we are back above AUD $1630oz. Show More
On Friday the 9th June, the AFR ran an excellent article on the new breed of superannuation funds hitting the Australian market place, most of whom are targeted towards Gen-Y and millennials, Australia’s most populous generation. “Inside the multi-billion dollar battle for Millennials’ super”, which you can access here, looked... Show More
Historically the Aussie Dollar has been regarded as a play on both commodities (specifically iron ore) and its higher interest rates relative to the rest of the world. In the past 12 months, though, the correlations of the currency with those two key factors has broken down. As iron ore... Show More
Gold moved higher overnight, continuing its impressive start to the year that has seen the yellow metal rise 9%, whilst silver, which is currently trading above USD $18oz, has put on closer to 15%. Show More
The Australian dollar has been rising strongly over the past six months and not just against the US dollar where this morning it is hovering just under 78 cents. The Aussie dollar is also buying over 0.72 euros, the highest level it has been since early 2015 and is up... Show More
It’s that time of the year – making the calls for the year ahead for the economy and financial markets. Key themes for the year include; ongoing sluggish growth in Australia with house prices set to weaken markedly, possibly fall. US (and most global) stock markets to fall, perhaps quite... Show More
Everyone forecast the death of the Aussie dollar in 2016, however, interest rate differentials and resurgent commodity prices pushed the local currency to a peak of 78 cents early in 2016. Of the 600+ Livewire members that responded to our 2017 Outlook Survey only 5% see the currency ending the... Show More
Looking at Australia’s big four banks (CBA, WBC, ANZ, NAB) we see a condition where the evolution of the global context is under-appreciated, particularly with regards to shifts in the Chinese situation. First, we look at the valuation picture of Australia’s big four banks. Then we consider the bank’s Achilles-heel... Show More
At the end of 2015, Livewire ran a survey asking readers and contributors for predictions on specific macro events. With a few months left of the year, it’s time to check in on how everyone is performing. So far, Livewire readers have struck an impressive three out of four. With... Show More
In September, Australia posted its highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth numbers in over 4 years – but does this mean the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has an interest rate hike in store? The answer lies partly in understanding the terms of trade and some other key factors that... Show More
Commonwealth Bank's Foreign Exchange Strategy team released their outlook should Trump become President. They analysed his economic policies and deduced that Trump’s economic policies are very inflationary, given large income and company tax cuts, government spending and tariffs. They believe US bond yields and the US equity market will lift... Show More