aud

Macro
Andrew Macken

Obviously in the near term, week-to-week, month-to-month it’s impossible to predict currencies, but over any medium-term period – you can at least, in our view, make some informed judgments around what the shape of the probability distribution of possible outcomes looks like. Show More

Brad Potter

Interestingly this week we saw some new information coming out of China where they've stopped Australian imports of coal going into the Dalian port. We've known about the slowdown in processing of coal, particularly Australian coal in a number of other ports, so this new information was interesting and certainly... Show More

Macro
Jordan Eliseo

Gold prices finished 2018 on a tear, rallying well over USD $100oz from its mid August lows to close out the year at USD $1281.65oz (London Fix on 31/12/18). The metal moved higher in the first trading days of 2019, kissing USD $1300oz, though a strong payrolls report, and a... Show More

Sean Callow

The Aussie dollar’s dip under 71 cents this week provided great fodder for newswires, as it printed lows since February 2016. But the more telling story is probably how little time it spent at such lows, and that it is higher over the week, close to 72 cents. Show More

Elizabeth Moran

The AUD dropped harder and faster than other Asian currencies on Friday reinforcing its position as a liquid and flexible proxy for the Asia region. Right now the Australian economy is performing at its best in years which should be good news for the AUD, but the currency is sending... Show More

Hugh Dive

In the press, large movements in the Australian dollar are often erroneously presented in the press as a vote of confidence in Australia as a nation or the management (or mismanagement) of our elected leaders. A falling Australian dollar is often viewed as a negative event, raising the cost of... Show More

Shane Oliver

For the last two calendar years, the Australian dollar has defied our expectations for weakness. But after hitting $US0.81 in January it’s been trending down as US interest rates fell below the Australian cash rate, the threat of a US-driven trade war increased and it recently broke below a short-term... Show More

Mary Manning

Asian markets performed well in the last year. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index (AUD) is up 14% in FY18, outperforming the ASX 200 by approximately 5%. Looking forward to FY19, there are 5 critical questions that will determine the path of equity markets in Asia: Show More

Geoff Wood

2018 has been a fascinating year so far with many different cross-currents running through markets. We have seen central banks hiking, just as Governments look to expand fiscally. At the same time, the big economic powerhouses go head-to-head on trade. Where does this all lead us? Below we walk through... Show More

Shane Oliver

The 2018-19 Budget will be the last before the next election (due by May 2019) and so had to provide pre-election goodies but in a way that keeps the return to surplus on track. Thanks to an improvement in the budget position since the Mid-Year review, of around $7bn per... Show More

Shane Oliver

While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21... Show More

Scott Haslem

Twenty-six years of uninterrupted economic expansion. Australia’s recent performance is now unmatched in history. While a handful of factors have been key to this outcome, without doubt, the floating of the Australian dollar in December 1983 was one of the most critical. According to former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)... Show More

Angus Coote

Yet again another quarter and another CPI miss. The RBA has no reason to move rates on the back of these soft numbers. Despite oil prices rallying throughout the quarter and the global economy and risk in general being bid to the moon, we are still yet to see the... Show More