Daily Report
Another really strong day for Aussie stocks as traders position for further interest rate cuts locally following a weaker than expected print on inflation at 11.30am this morning…A host of investment banks along with ANZ, WBC and NAB are now calling for two rate cuts this year, the... Show More
Macro
Obviously in the near term, week-to-week, month-to-month it’s impossible to predict currencies, but over any medium-term period – you can at least, in our view, make some informed judgments around what the shape of the probability distribution of possible outcomes looks like. Show More
The Australian dollar / US dollar cross was something of a one-way trade in 2018. After appreciating to slightly above US$0.80 in January, the exchange rate deteriorated steadily for the remainder of the year. On 2 January 2019, the rate finally breached the US$0.70 level. In this paper we examine... Show More
Following the latest move by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lift the Fed funds rate to between 2% and 2.25%, the spread between the US and Australian cash rates has inverted to levels not seen since the currency was floated back in December 1983. Show More
For Australians with a mortgage, there’s a good chance life is feeling somewhat tougher – and for good reason. For one thing, mortgage rates are increasing. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar has been depreciating against the US dollar, which is eroding the global purchasing power of all Australians. Unfortunately, these dynamics... Show More
Has the recent weakness in the US dollar surprised you? Has the strength in the Aussie dollar had you scratching your head at all? To many, including your author, these moves have been counter-intuitive to some degree. So what could possibly be placing downward pressure on the Greenback and upward... Show More
In this article we look at some of the more topical subjects influencing financial markets and analyse a few interesting charts. We start with rising rates – the message being delivered by the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen in uncharacteristic straightforward terms. Then we cast an eye over President Trump’s tax... Show More
Australian inbound tourism data for July 2016 has just been released, and shows some positive trends, including: Total inbound for July 2016 at 716k (+14.1% pcp); 12 Months to July 2016 at 7.94m (+10.6% pcp v 10.0% at end June 2016); Leisure 12 months to July 2016 at 6.0m (+14.8%... Show More
Over the last month, we have seen the AUD fall 8% vs. the USD, continuing the volatility in the AUD in 2016 which started the year off at 0.72, then fell to 0.68 mid-January before recovering to over 0.78 in mid-April. Research that was released on Wednesday from ANZ Bank’s... Show More
Paul Moore, Chief Investment Officer at PM CAPITAL, says they’ve lightened their USD exposure as they now feel the AUD is close to fair value. “We think most of the decline in the Australian Dollar is over. If it had kept in-line with commodity prices it probably had another 10... Show More