The Australian dollar / US dollar cross was something of a one-way trade in 2018. After appreciating to slightly above US$0.80 in January, the exchange rate deteriorated steadily for the remainder of the year. On 2 January 2019, the rate finally breached the US$0.70 level. In this paper we examine... Show More
Following the latest move by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lift the Fed funds rate to between 2% and 2.25%, the spread between the US and Australian cash rates has inverted to levels not seen since the currency was floated back in December 1983. Show More
For Australians with a mortgage, there’s a good chance life is feeling somewhat tougher – and for good reason. For one thing, mortgage rates are increasing. Meanwhile, the Aussie dollar has been depreciating against the US dollar, which is eroding the global purchasing power of all Australians. Unfortunately, these dynamics... Show More
Has the recent weakness in the US dollar surprised you? Has the strength in the Aussie dollar had you scratching your head at all? To many, including your author, these moves have been counter-intuitive to some degree. So what could possibly be placing downward pressure on the Greenback and upward... Show More
In this article we look at some of the more topical subjects influencing financial markets and analyse a few interesting charts. We start with rising rates – the message being delivered by the Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen in uncharacteristic straightforward terms. Then we cast an eye over President Trump’s tax... Show More
Australian inbound tourism data for July 2016 has just been released, and shows some positive trends, including: Total inbound for July 2016 at 716k (+14.1% pcp); 12 Months to July 2016 at 7.94m (+10.6% pcp v 10.0% at end June 2016); Leisure 12 months to July 2016 at 6.0m (+14.8%... Show More
Over the last month, we have seen the AUD fall 8% vs. the USD, continuing the volatility in the AUD in 2016 which started the year off at 0.72, then fell to 0.68 mid-January before recovering to over 0.78 in mid-April. Research that was released on Wednesday from ANZ Bank’s... Show More
Paul Moore, Chief Investment Officer at PM CAPITAL, says they’ve lightened their USD exposure as they now feel the AUD is close to fair value. “We think most of the decline in the Australian Dollar is over. If it had kept in-line with commodity prices it probably had another 10... Show More
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The FOMC meet over Wednesday and Thursday. Recent events in China have killed the possibility of a rate “lift off” at the September meeting. Current market pricing now has the December meeting as a likely time for the FOMC to hike. The Fed may begin to signal that they are... Show More
AUDUSD: Pulled back from the SSE inspired highs yesterday as there was no domestic economic data and as the market awaited the FOMC meet. The US central bank kept rates on hold as expected and suggested any rate hikes will be gradual, but importantly gave no reason for us to... Show More
Miles Staude, Portfolio Manager of the Global Value Fund, explains the reasons he believes the AUD is overvalued. Staid says his rationale is twofold being 1) As the RBA and most economists note on a simple purchasing parity basis the dollar looks expensive 2) The other aspect is divergent central... Show More
In an era of weak domestic demand in most economies, currency trends are becoming more important as central banks try to find extra (or any) sources of growth. The flat US retail sales figure for April at both the headline and core level brings into question the market view that... Show More
The AUD/USD previously generated a technical buy signal at 0.7851 (as detailed in 27/4/15 wire), resulting in the technical outlook turning positive. The nominated minimum upside target was located @0.8200. Show More
The AUD/USD has reached the minimum downside technical target located at 0.8220 as a result of overnight decline (it reached a low of 0.8215). It had originally generated a technical sell signal at 0.9203 on 10/9/14, which resulted in the technical outlook turning negative. The AUD subsequently generated a technical... Show More
The AUD/USD has the potential for a further major downward move, with 0.8660 the key level to watch. It initially generated a technical sell signal at 0.9203 on 10/9/14 which was the technical turning point. A further break below key support located at 0.8821 then occurred on 25/9/14, which flagged... Show More
Keep a close watch on the AUD/USD as it is currently positioned near a key technical support level, which if broken, would indicate the potential for it to revisit the January 2014 low point @0.8660. The AUD/USD previously generated a technical sell signal at 0.9203 on 10/9/14, with the technicals turning... Show More