Today I argue that while Labor have given ScoMo a shot of winning the election with its shocking recent mis-steps and its bizarre tax-everything-that-moves-platform, the media coverage and political analysis has never been more biased in all likelihood because those inside the beltway fervently believe that ScoMo does not have... Show More
A few quick thoughts on recent credit spread movements in the Tier 2 subordinated bond and the Additional Tier 1 capital hybrid markets. First, the screenshot below shows the clean price of the most recently issued, 5 year major bank subordinated Tier 2 bond. The impact of APRA’s November 2018 consultation... Show More
Today I write about an interview this week with one of Australia's most successful and innovative funds management pioneers, Magellan's Hamish Douglass, who says he would have no issue with ASIC applying the Future of Financial Advice (FOFA) laws to the burgeoning listed investment company/trust (LIC or LIT) space to... Show More
A column in The Australian over the weekend argued that mums and dads should think about selling their fully franked bank Tier 1 hybrids to buy unfranked Tier 2 subordinated bonds. But this analysis is flawed on many bases, the most obvious of which is that the unfranked cash yields... Show More
CBA’s share price has currently bounced about 1.5 per cent—or $1.8 billion in market capitalisation terms—at the time of writing following news that it has settled the AUSTRAC money laundering litigation for $700 million. Show More
In my AFR column I lean into the housing and banking debates, and give my old mate Jon Mott at UBS some more heat (click on that link to read for free or AFR subs can click here for direct access). Excerpt enclosed: Show More
NAB, CBA and Westpac, among others, report in early May. In those results we expect credit growth to be stronger than what the market expects. However, we expect relatively poor topline growth for the banks as their net interest margins remain under pressure. Given that the banks have already said... Show More
In my AFR column I speculate that sanity could prevail and the mooted CBA hybrid that is expected to be launched next week could actually be attractive, offering a much higher margin and shorter maturity than Wesptac's latest issue (ASX: WBCPH) (click on that link to read for free or... Show More
In The AFR I argue that portfolio performance in 2017 will likely hinge heavily on which version of Donald Trump prevails: the aspirational entrepreneur who concentrates on the economy, delegating non-core decision-making in high-tail-risk areas like foreign policy to subject matter experts; or the impulsive and erratic megalomaniac who ushers... Show More
CommSec Market Analyst Tom Piotrowski speaks with CBA Head of Fixed Income & Rates Research, Adam Donaldson about the impact of the Brexit vote on bond yields and Australian interest rates For CommSec’s Financial Year Wrap coverage, visit www.commsec.com.au/financialyearwrap Show More
CBA Chief Currency Strategist and Head of International Economics, Richard Grace speaks with CommSec’s Juliana Roadley about revisions to his AUD/USD forecasts from 0.7800 to 0.7300 by Dec 2016 Show More
Aussie market followed the global markets up again with short covering providing the extra boost. The two main sectors in banks and resources are running hard. Banks were very cheap and the GDP data turned the sentiment from recession worry to bargain hunting and yield chase. Trade deficit data that... Show More
Aussie market started positive and finished even more positive on Chinese lending data despite a pullback in the middle on Japanese not moving on stimulus quickly. The Japanese are waiting to see the effects of negative rates before moving on more stimulus. China lending was on fire with New Year.... Show More
In The AFR I argue that there are attractive investment opportunities in the extreme chaos gripping global financial markets and offer a mathematical view of how you should have allocated your capital over the last 27 years had you had perfect foresight. I also run the ruler over CBA's latest... Show More
CBA Executive Director Insurance and Diversified Financials Research, Ross Curran provides an outlook for the financial services sector in 2016 More forecasts for 2016 available at https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/year-ahead.html Show More
CBA Chief Economist Michael Blythe takes a look at the risks & issues likely to impact the Australian economy in 2016 More forecasts for 2016 at https://www.commsec.com.au/market-news/year-ahead.html Show More
At the recent International Rugby World Cup held in England the host nation failed to progress to the finals. Australia performed better but couldn’t knock off its arch nemesis, New Zealand, in the final. There is one arena where the Brits may outperform the Aussies over the next five years,... Show More
I spoke with Swiss financial television station Dukascopy TV about geopolitical event uncertainty, Australian AGM season and how can investors be smarter in their stock selection. Over the last 20 years, big positions in traditional Australian blue chip stocks have been rewarding for investors. BHP Billiton Limited and Rio Tinto... Show More
Aussie market started negative again and then muscled its way back to positive territory with Energy sector leading the way after STO announced a rejected take-over bid. But at the end of the day CBA followed WBC lead and put up variable rates by 15bps. Bubble or not, everyone agrees... Show More
Aussie market started negative with CBA raising and then it ran into China devaluation part 2 which was followed by substantial broad based selling pressure post lunch from a potential global investor out of Asia. The market was caught completely unaware by the PBOC move to devaluate Yuan yesterday and... Show More