The latest State Street Investor Confidence Index data for July showed a distinct sense of upside capitulation. The headline global index was up 7.9 points to 108.9 - this was driven purely by North American institutional investors with the North Am index up 10pts to 112.1 which offset declines in... Show More
In the first week of January I spoke with Swiss financial television station Dukascopy TV about early 2016 volatility, how large market moves are shaping investor confidence for the year ahead, alternative ways to generate capital growth from financial markets this year and likely uncertainty within controlled markets such as... Show More
This week was all about Q2 GDP for Australia. The headline result disappointed at 0.2%, 2.0%yr. Domestic demand was weak in annual terms at 1.2%yr; and private demand even weaker still at 0.9%yr. Some positives remain apparent in services export growth and residential construction; but the twin effects of the... Show More
It has certainly been a very busy week. Greece reached agreement on initial reforms with European leaders, subsequently passed by their parliament. Now negotiations on debt restructuring can begin. Markets are happier, but the economic cost for Greece is such that uncertainty will persist. In the US, FOMC Chair Yellen... Show More
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 6.9% in June from 102.4 in May to 95.3 in June. It now appears that last month’s surge of optimism was a brief ‘relief rally’ following the RBA’s May rate cut and a Budget that was less ‘damaging’ than many feared. Individual... Show More
This week the focus was squarely on the RBA and Australian Q1 GDP. While the 'no change' result met expectations, the open ended nature of the guidance was arguably a little more bullish than the market had anticipated, particularly given it came just a week after the poor Q1 Capex... Show More
The tough part for investors is that our market is around fair value. The issue is that markets spend plenty of time above or below the line and this is where the profits are to be made. I believe the Australian market can overshoot to the upside with low rates... Show More
US Confidence in the economy fell more during the past week than any other week since the collapse of Lehman in 2008. The Gallup poll was down a staggering 12 points to -34. http://www.gallup.com/poll/165287/weekly-drop-economic-confidence-largest-2008.aspx Show More
McKinsey have released their latest survey of company executives and there's no doubt, execs are considerably more positive worldwide than the previous quarter, particularly in Europe. Global executives are increasingly positive about the direction of the world economy, though in our latest survey on economic conditions, the source of their... Show More
CBA has released an interesting note today examining the history of elections and their rather short-term effects on consumer confidence, the dollar and the stock market. Confidence levels generally lifted modestly following Federal election outcomes before other issues took greater prominence. Generally the short-term election boost to confidence lasted only... Show More